Why Russia needs to play against expensive oil

The Russian budget is almost 40% dependent on the oil and gas sector. While the authorities enthusiastically pulled pipelines in different directions, thousands of production enterprises have closed in the country over the past decades. In the media, this is called "the economy pipes. " Unfortunately, in the foreseeable future, we can even remain without petrodollars.




In the minds of the average man, there has long been a strong conviction that Russia is one of the leading oil powers in the world. However, in reality, everything is not so clear.

Until 2013, the data on oil reserves in our country were classified, but the government decided to boast to foreign investors. It turned out that as of 2012, the volume of proved reserves of Russian oil was “only” 17,80 billion tons. This put Russia on the sixth line of the rating of the largest oil powers, immediately after Iraq, Iran, Canada, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

However, already in the following year, 2014, BP made its own calculations and indicated that our country has less real oil reserves, only 12,74 billion tons. The CIA added a fly in the ointment to the barrel of oil, according to which this figure decreased even further - to 10,92 billion tons. Of course, you shouldn’t trust the enemies recklessly, but if they are still right, then Russia is at the end of the top ten.

Such a large discrepancy in figures between official Russian and Western data is explained quite simply. Abroad, it is customary to consider not all oil in general, but only profitable, one that is economically viable to produce. It turns out that a significant part of domestic reserves is hard to recover. If there is no technological breakthrough, which is not easy under the conditions of sanctions, profitable deposits at current production rates will last for ten years. After that, our country will turn from the leaders of the oil market into its outsider.

With such initial data, something else is surprising. The Russian authorities are literally playing along with our direct competitors in the person of the United States.

In 2016, Russia joined the agreement with OPEC, called OPEC +. Its goal is to limit oil production to maintain a high price per barrel. The key players in the deal are our country and Saudi Arabia, but we have different ideas about the level of quotes. 50-60 dollars per barrel is enough for Moscow, Riyadh defends a price tag of 80 dollars. It would seem worth rejoicing, since the Arabs contribute to the replenishment of our budget, but everything is a little more complicated.

It must be remembered that Saudi Arabia is a faithful ally of the United States and in this matter it defends precisely their interests. The high oil price is needed primarily by Washington, which is skimming the cream of its “shale revolution”. In terms of average daily production, the States have already taken the first place in the world, but in export, according to the results of last year, they are still in eighth. By the end of 2019, this overseas power will be in 5-6th place among the leading exporters. And this is not the limit.

A pipeline network from the Permian shale basin and new terminals in ports will be commissioned in the coming year or two on the east coast of the United States. American exports will double in a few years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2024, the United States will become the world's number two exporter of oil, immediately after Saudi Arabia. In five years! Removing foam from high oil quotes today, the Russian leadership itself contributes to the development of a direct competitor, which also has tremendous political, economic and military leverage. At the same time, the development of the domestic oil industry was suspended due to American sectoral sanctions.

Is it possible to save at least our "pipe"?

It’s worth at least a try by investing funds of the NWF in the exploration and development of their own of technologies production of hard-to-recover oil. And it would be nice to engage in the industry as a whole, by the way, instead of again withdrawing money into "highly profitable foreign projects." It is necessary to withdraw from the OPEC + agreement and cooperate with those adequate players who understand that the immediate benefits of high oil prices will now result in a loss of market share in the future, when the United States pushes everyone with their elbows. You need to play for a fall.
Photos used: https://www.thegazette.com/
Ctrl Enter

Noticed oshЫbku Highlight text and press. Ctrl + Enter

11 comments
Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in

  1. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 10 November 2019 14: 06
    +1
    • 1
    • 0
    Increase-decrease - this is not fundamental. Fundamentally, money is not invested in the creation of enterprises of electronics, engineering, etc. That's when we ourselves can create - build those enterprises that built the Energy rocket, then we will be "violet" what the price of oil will be.
  2. Artie Offline
    Artie (Artyom Korolev) 10 November 2019 14: 14
    +3
    • 3
    • 0
    The author seems to live in parallel reality.
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 11 November 2019 02: 10
      +2
      • 2
      • 0
      Quote: Artie
      The author seems to live in parallel reality.

      And contradicts himself. Here, his Russian oil reserves are unprofitable at low oil prices, but we need to fight the high price so that the Americans reduce the profitability of shale oil production. In spite of my mother-in-law frostbite my ears, in a word.
  3. 123 Online
    123 (123) 10 November 2019 15: 08
    +3
    • 4
    • 1
    In general, everything is bad, the oil is running out, the remaining one should be given urgently at cost, otherwise the States will start selling their own and squeezing us out from everywhere. sad

    However, already in the next 2014, BP made its own calculations.

    And why did the esteemed author not provide data for 1913? Why 2014? What, disconnected the Internet? sad According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy

    https://ria.ru/20191012/1559682620.html

    In 2019, the volume of explored oil in Russia is 106 billion barrels, that is, approximately 14,2 billion tons. That is, they increased from 10,92 to 14,2, but we’ll better give the old data, otherwise it’s not so sad. belay

    ... by 2024, the United States will become the world's number two oil exporter, immediately after Saudi Arabia. In five years!

    Everything, it's time to crawl to the cemetery. belay Right now, how to start mining fellow and we will have no place left. According to BP, the proven reserves in the United States amount to 61 billion barrels, or 8,2 billion tons. We have 14 - they have 8, but they will jump to the second place in production, but we won’t be able to get anything, because we have total corruption, there is no technology and the sky is gray in Russia in general. sad So it turns out? It also says by reference that in the USA, everything is not going smoothly with shale oil.

    During the first six months of this year, new wells in the Perm basin produced 12 percent less than in 2018, and 16 percent less than in 2017. In such circumstances, oil companies are forced to drill more and more new wells, although at a price of $ 60 per barrel, this is simply unprofitable.

    Here is such arithmetic, we have more oil, but we won’t be able to produce it, they have less, but they can all. Perhaps the "holy Mask" will help, not otherwise. lol And what do we do in such a terrible situation? recourse Right.....

    It is necessary to withdraw from the OPEC + agreement and cooperate with those adequate players who understand that the immediate benefits of high oil prices will now result in a loss of market share in the future, when the United States pushes everyone with their elbows. You need to play for a fall.

    Just a great idea to sell oil at cost. Profit 0, but what a turn. laughing By the way, who are these mysterious countries that dream of reducing the price of oil sold to a minimum? Mexico, Oman, Azerbaijan or the United States?

    PS And if you still kick out the brave American oil producers from Syria and Iraq, then the results of the “shale revolution” will sparkle with new colors, because stolen oil under the guise of selling shale will not work.
  4. Sergey39 Offline
    Sergey39 (Sergei) 10 November 2019 15: 36
    +1
    • 1
    • 0
    Who is playing what games with whom, who is up, who is down, who has what stocks - there is no reliable information anyway. We stock up on popcorn, make bets and wait for Peak Oil.
  5. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 November 2019 16: 49
    -1
    • 2
    • 3
    There, at last, the Sites were singing ...- directly the nightingale trills ...
    - And when I personally wrote about the failed policy of Gazprom and Rosneft, and cited facts and figures, these "pseudo-patriots" rested like .... to prove the opposite ...
    - And personally I constantly assert that Russia has been selling gas and oil for a long time at a price below cost ... - Swamps, swamps, bogs, tundra, deep occurrence, thousands of kilometers of pipelines; hundreds of pumping stations with heating ... -What can there be more profit ...
    - Yes, and who needs the Russian Urals ...- this spread ...- at the "normal price" ...
    - And why is it about Iran here ... here ... here ... here no one mentions ...
    - That's how many times I personally wrote ...- why the hell did Russia support Iran in its prosperity ... -This is a clear opponent of Russia ...- both politically and economically ... -One Iran can playfully ditch all of Russian Rosneft ... by supplying its first-class oil to the international market ...
    1. Anatoly Unknown Offline
      Anatoly Unknown (Anatoly Unknown) 11 November 2019 22: 26
      -2
      • 0
      • 2
      There are no words. With such intelligence, it’s embarrassing to show up to people.
  6. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 10 November 2019 20: 14
    0
    • 2
    • 2
    - Here, "wise men" began to talk about raising and lowering oil prices; they began to manipulate tsiferki ... -who what "reserves" and how much is enough ... - Well, well ...
    - Don’t talk about that, Messrs. "Wise men" ...
    - It’s too late to talk about this ... -this has already "passed" ...
    - And when I personally wrote about the development of the Arctic deposits .. when Russia made a global mistake .. that I abandoned the development of these deposits ... -so everyone came up against how ... and were against ...
    - Yes, Russia will not be allowed to sell the oil that is already available for sale ... - they will simply squeeze it out of the world market when first-class oil arrives there at an "affordable price" ... -It will supply Iran with this oil; the same Iraq; and the UAE; and Kuwait; and the same Saudi Arabia ...
    - So what??? - And where Russia with its miserable Urals will get away with this spread ...- will it start giving away to everyone in need ???
    - And by the way, why is it that they "separate" oil and gas here ???
    - Recently, these are absolutely “inseparable components” ...
    - And, if Russia is "squeezed out" of the oil market, then it will not return to its former position ... -But that's not all ... -Russia will seriously lose its position in the "gas sector" ...
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 11 November 2019 02: 22
      -1
      • 1
      • 2
      Quote: gorenina91
      And where Russia with its miserable Urals will get away with this spread ...

      Your whole post is nonsense. And where will the refineries located under our Urals go?
      And please answer why, selling oil and gas below profitability, the oil and gas industry continues to work, although it should already go bankrupt, and moreover, it ensures the growth of the Russian gold reserves and the Stabilization Fund?
  7. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 November 2019 06: 34
    0
    • 0
    • 0
    Quote: Nick
    And please answer why, by selling oil and gas below profitability, the oil and gas industry continues to work, although it should already go bankrupt, and moreover, it ensures the growth of the Russian gold reserves and the Stabilization Fund?

    Rosneft receives support from the budget.
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 11 November 2019 20: 36
      +1
      • 2
      • 1
      Rosneft receives support from the budget.

      You have interesting ideas about the money cycle. laughing Production is not profitable, oil is sold below cost, losses are covered by the budget, and the budget is replenished by the loss-making sale of oil, and the excess is put into a small pill, probably in order to support the loss-making oilmen from it. belay Am I confused anything? smile Such a business organization is an almost guaranteed Nobel Prize in economics. laughing
      So here it is - the "oil needle", the last pillar of the rotten economy of the gas station country. sad