Russia has a powerful lever of influence on events in Armenia
In many Russian fairy tales, there is a mention of a pointer stone at the crossroads, where the weary hero is presented with probable options for the development of his future path when choosing a direction. Type: If you go to the right, you lose a horse; if you go to the left, you will lose the treasury; you’ll go straight — it’s generally darkness ...
And now, Russia, in case of further reaction to the events in Armenia, becomes similar to such an epic hero. And it seems that this hero - of the pre-Christian, or, say differently, pre-Byzantine era, when Russia had not yet found and supported agents of its influence in other countries.
Was it possible to predict the appearance of Nikola Pashinyan in the Armenian policy? Of course you can! In Russia themselves, there is a similar Alexey Navalny. Do analytical centers in government circles of Russia work in such areas? “Not a fact,” as the eponymous title of a famous TV show says, or does not work successfully. The result can be called political failures in relation to Russia of the former Soviet republics, which are still considered fraternal Russia. This is Kazakhstan with its flirting with the American military, and Belarus, the conflicting news of which in the media has long worried ordinary Russian citizens, and now - Armenia.
What should Russia do now with this new factor in Armenian domestic policy, which can play an important role in the future fate of the CSTO? If you call on the Armenian authorities to restore constitutional order, then mass riots may just begin. Pashinyan claims that the army and police of Armenia are on his side. Is it really so? Does the Government of Russia have complete clarity in this direction? And what is the position of the Armenian people in relation to Pashinyan? And what led to this situation in Armenia? If the actions of the authorities, then what exactly? After all, you need to know in order to be prepared not to do this in Russia. All CIS countries - fragments of the USSR and all peoples - are former Soviet people. Here it is much easier to calculate the reaction of the people than in the case of Afghanistan, or Turkey.
And if all of a sudden Nicola Pashinyan comes to power in Armenia on the shoulders of the crowd and under the pressure of the "collective West", bypassing all democratic norms, should Russia recognize it as legal power? On the one hand, Armenia, this is an important strategic area for Russia and, with certain agreements with Pashinyan, the new authorities can allow the presence of a Russian military base here. What on the other hand? And on the other hand, if Russia considers such a rise in power legitimate, then where is the guarantee that after a certain time such a scenario will not be played out in Russia itself? Indeed, according to one version, according to a precedent from Kosovo, Russia received the Crimea. And what can happen according to a precedent with the advent of Pashinyan to power in Armenia?
Maybe it’s not for nothing that many political scientists of Russia speak out about the revival of the Russian Ministry for CIS Affairs (or the territories of the former USSR)? There is a large Armenian diaspora in Russia, sending huge amounts of money to its relatives in Armenia. Perhaps the Russian authorities should influence this diaspora by the fact that the window of opportunities for Armenians to successfully do business in Russia and send money to Armenia itself from Russia may narrow somewhat? This is in case of unfriendly actions of Armenia towards the policy of Russia in the region. And there it is up to the Armenians themselves to decide how to influence the Armenian authorities and how to live on ...
And now, Russia, in case of further reaction to the events in Armenia, becomes similar to such an epic hero. And it seems that this hero - of the pre-Christian, or, say differently, pre-Byzantine era, when Russia had not yet found and supported agents of its influence in other countries.
Was it possible to predict the appearance of Nikola Pashinyan in the Armenian policy? Of course you can! In Russia themselves, there is a similar Alexey Navalny. Do analytical centers in government circles of Russia work in such areas? “Not a fact,” as the eponymous title of a famous TV show says, or does not work successfully. The result can be called political failures in relation to Russia of the former Soviet republics, which are still considered fraternal Russia. This is Kazakhstan with its flirting with the American military, and Belarus, the conflicting news of which in the media has long worried ordinary Russian citizens, and now - Armenia.
What should Russia do now with this new factor in Armenian domestic policy, which can play an important role in the future fate of the CSTO? If you call on the Armenian authorities to restore constitutional order, then mass riots may just begin. Pashinyan claims that the army and police of Armenia are on his side. Is it really so? Does the Government of Russia have complete clarity in this direction? And what is the position of the Armenian people in relation to Pashinyan? And what led to this situation in Armenia? If the actions of the authorities, then what exactly? After all, you need to know in order to be prepared not to do this in Russia. All CIS countries - fragments of the USSR and all peoples - are former Soviet people. Here it is much easier to calculate the reaction of the people than in the case of Afghanistan, or Turkey.
And if all of a sudden Nicola Pashinyan comes to power in Armenia on the shoulders of the crowd and under the pressure of the "collective West", bypassing all democratic norms, should Russia recognize it as legal power? On the one hand, Armenia, this is an important strategic area for Russia and, with certain agreements with Pashinyan, the new authorities can allow the presence of a Russian military base here. What on the other hand? And on the other hand, if Russia considers such a rise in power legitimate, then where is the guarantee that after a certain time such a scenario will not be played out in Russia itself? Indeed, according to one version, according to a precedent from Kosovo, Russia received the Crimea. And what can happen according to a precedent with the advent of Pashinyan to power in Armenia?
Maybe it’s not for nothing that many political scientists of Russia speak out about the revival of the Russian Ministry for CIS Affairs (or the territories of the former USSR)? There is a large Armenian diaspora in Russia, sending huge amounts of money to its relatives in Armenia. Perhaps the Russian authorities should influence this diaspora by the fact that the window of opportunities for Armenians to successfully do business in Russia and send money to Armenia itself from Russia may narrow somewhat? This is in case of unfriendly actions of Armenia towards the policy of Russia in the region. And there it is up to the Armenians themselves to decide how to influence the Armenian authorities and how to live on ...
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