Turkey's future: withdrawal from NATO, accession to the CSTO and EEC?

Operation Source of Peace, launched by Ankara in Syria, will cost Turkey itself. More importantly, it could be the impetus for restructuring the militarypolitical и economic maps of Europe and Eurasia in general.




As you know, Turkey is the most important member of NATO, the anti-Russian military bloc. The Turkish army is the second strongest in the alliance after the American one; the Turkish fleet closes the straits, preventing the Russian Black Sea Fleet from entering the Mediterranean Sea. At the military base, Incirlik Pentagon keeps stockpiles of tactical nuclear weapons closer to its potential adversary.

And now everything can change. Washington is busy discussing the possibility of exporting a nuclear arsenal from Turkey. As an alternative to host an American military base, Greece and Cyprus are called unfriendly Ankara. The European Union condemned Operation Source of Peace in Syria. Its members agreed to stop the supply of arms to Turkey.

Yesterday's allies are beating on the Turkish economy. President Trump has stopped negotiations with Ankara on a multibillion-dollar bargain, imposed increased duties on its metallurgy products. Washington applied personal sanctions against key members of the Turkish government. The already depreciating 30% of the Turkish national currency continued its further decline.

The following questions suggest themselves. How far can all this go? Is it likely that Ankara, having quarreled with the USA and Europe, would leave NATO? And if so, what are the chances that Turkey will turn away from West to East, turning its eyes to the EAC and Eurasian NATO, the CSTO?

First of all, we need to figure out what the North Atlantic Alliance actually is today. During the Cold War, NATO was a consolidated capitalist counterweight to the socialist camp. The contradictions between its members faded before the need to confront the "communist threat." But everything changed in 1991, when the USSR died, and its former members themselves embarked on the capitalist path of development.

The existential external threat has disappeared, and with it the root cause for uniting the traditional competitors of the Western world. The NATO bloc remained as a tool for US control over Europe. And the role of Turkey here looks special. There were reasons for her joining the alliance.

At first, The USSR expressed certain territorial claims against Turkey, which grew land in the Caucasus at our expense in 1921.

Second, the in Turkish society, leftist moods were very strong, especially among the intelligentsia.

It is not surprising that Ankara rushed for support against the USSR to the West. The Turks even had to send their troops to help the Americans in Korea to demonstrate their loyalty. In gratitude, Washington supported the formation of the Turkish armed forces, opened military bases and radio intelligence stations on its territory.

However, serious contradictions began to accumulate in relations between Ankara and the West. So, the tension inside the NATO bloc created the entry of Greece into it. With the disappearance of the USSR, not only the external threat disappeared, but also the need to portray friendship with a historical adversary. The mood also changed in Turkish society itself, which perceives the alliance as a Western project, despite the fact that the Republic is part of the Middle East. The fact that Turkey was never allowed into the European Union, humiliatingly keeping it on the threshold for decades, did not add to its popularity. Finally, Ankara really did not like what the Americans called their Kurds, who are considered the main threat to the territorial integrity of Turkey, as their allies in Syria.

It turns out that there are prerequisites for Turkey’s secession from NATO. True, the situation has not yet matured. The US and the EU would rather be interested not in excluding the most important member of the alliance, but in changing their leadership to a more obedient one. And they hardly understand this in Ankara itself.

It’s very convenient for President Erdogan that he has a certain space for maneuver between the West and the East. He can replace the NATO-style weapons with Russian ones. If necessary, an alternative to the North Atlantic Alliance can be the “Eurasian NATO”, the CSTO. Integration with the Eurasian Economic Union is possible, as well as deepening cooperation with China.

Why not? Judging by the events in the same Syria, the Kurds abandoned by the Americans turned to Damascus and Moscow for help. Offended by the collective West, the Turks may also turn to face the collective East. In the "era of trump" everything is possible.
Photos used: http://www.ilgiornale.it
Ctrl Enter

Noticed oshЫbku Highlight text and press. Ctrl + Enter

12 comments
Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in

  1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 16 October 2019 17: 50
    0
    • 1
    • 1
    Turkey in the EAC, Eurasian NATO, CSTO - lips rolled out, pick up, otherwise you will stumble ...
  2. Pishenkov Offline
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 16 October 2019 23: 11
    +3
    • 4
    • 1
    If necessary, an alternative to the North Atlantic Alliance could be Eurasian NATO, CSTO

    - such "allies" as the CSTO, God forgive me, you will not wish the enemy. Turkey for us, even while still inside NATO, has already done more than all the Collective Security Treaty Organization taken together throughout its existence. Where are all these allies when Russia has problems? If sanctions were supported against the West, no, they are all profiting from this, and the Russian Federation still makes claims if the Russians allow themselves to be indignant. I'm not talking about support in Syria or on the issue of Ukraine - everyone is silent in a rag, "fraternal peoples."
    If the Turks suddenly leave NATO, then this will, of course, be a BLOW. And the victory of Russian foreign policy. But they don’t need any CSTO in its current amorphous form, and even there, relations with Turkey will infuriate the “allies” ... Or should this CSTO be rebuilt, like NATO, with strict subordination, fulfillment of allied functions, etc. NATO members grunt, fart, cry, but participate in American "missions" and "coalitions" around the world, buy weapons, support sanctions to their own detriment, etc.
    And in the CSTO this is everyone, like, for himself. Until a roasted rooster pecks someone other than Russians. The Armenians in Karabakh will be squeezed - the Russians will help, “Allies, help, allies!”, The barmales across Afghanistan will trample into Central Asia, too, the Russians will have to shed blood for them ... But where are they when Russia needs help ???
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 17 October 2019 12: 13
      0
      • 2
      • 2
      I agree ... - The Collective Security Treaty Organization is a complete fiction, an illusion of a military commonwealth ... - Before, at least there was only hope for Belarus ... as an ally, but now this "hope" begins to evaporate (well, the "Bakhtiyar-Odekabeshniki" as before, "out of business" ... - and so they remained ..).
      As for Turkey, Russia will somehow need to make excuses for the fact that ... what ... what ... that Russia will soon be forced to maintain Turkey at its own expense ... - to provide loans to Turkey, supply arms, acquire all kinds of turkish junk, etc ...
      - Here is an explanation of “all this” and there will be a weak explanation that, they say ... - Turkey supposedly leaves NATO and joins the CSTO and the EEC?
      - For a short time, such an absurd excuse can convince someone ... -Hahah ...
      - But when very serious disagreements arise between Russia and Turkey (if not something even more “more serious”), then other “versions” will be invented ...
      1. Pishenkov Offline
        Pishenkov (Alexey) 17 October 2019 13: 26
        +2
        • 3
        • 1
        You, as usual, pay too much attention to + and -. And this is in vain, only spoil your mood. As I understand it, here some of them put it without reading the comment at all, but simply to the person who wrote it. laughing If the character doesn’t like, like ...
        And as for Turkey - I definitely don’t think that this country of the Russian Federation will be “contained”. First, trite money is not enough wink and secondly, Turkey is not a country that even gave itself to someone to support. These are not former Soviet republics, "socialist camps" or post-colonial "banana republics." The Turks have a huge economy, a centuries-old history of independence and established statehood, I am silent about their armed forces, which, apart from the factor of nuclear weapons, are one of 10 or even 5 strongest in the world. Moreover, like Russia, Germany, and Britain, and just a couple of states in the world, Turkey is an imperial state and Turks are an imperial people. Hence this kind of behavior, and such a reaction to the attitude of the same USA. Of course, historically, the Turks are no friends to us, they have never been and are unlikely to be. BUT, smooth and pragmatic relations with such a strong partner as Turkey, based on just at least observing mutual geopolitical and economic interests, are definitely more beneficial for the Russian Federation than the presence of several "allies" represented by "brotherly" peoples, from which it is not clear what and when expect ... And here I just believe that with the Turks it could well be a pragmatic and mutually beneficial cooperation, rather than a "one-goal game", in the form of the CIS and the CSTO.
        1. gorenina91 Offline
          gorenina91 (Irina) 17 October 2019 16: 21
          0
          • 1
          • 1
          And as for Turkey - I definitely don’t think that this country of the Russian Federation will be “contained”

          No, no ... - It will contain ... - and already contains ...
          Russia is building Turkey’s nuclear power plant, payment for which (at best) will already be received by our grandchildren ... - if at all; supplies expensive weapons, for which it pays with its own loans (which, most likely, will be forgiven) ... - and this is a member of NATO, which has a huge army; right on a silver platter, Russia presents a gas pipeline to Turkey, knowing that from Turkey one can expect any turn by 189 degrees ...; forgives all tricks ... - until the murder of diplomats and the destruction of Russian aircraft (the death of Russian pilots), etc., etc ...
          - Which country would suffer from Turkey ???
          - Only Russia...
          - I’m even absolutely sure that ... what ... what ... fire at Russian troops in Syria today in Syria ... - and still Russia will not do anything ...
          - Well, they will begin to "understand" ... - Well, they will find out that this, allegedly ... was wrong, etc ...
          - I can add that the Americans made a very strong move ... that leave Russia and Turkey in Syria face to face ...
          - In general, Trump ... "ahead of the time" ... - this is just a player from the future ... - and today they still don’t play like that ... - Therefore, Trump still does not succeed ...
          1. Pishenkov Offline
            Pishenkov (Alexey) 17 October 2019 17: 05
            0
            • 1
            • 1
            Which country would suffer from Turkey ???

            - The USA, for example ... is suffering ...
            Anyway ... I'm just starting to believe more and more that Trump is "OUR". lol lol lol Otherwise, everything that happens is extremely difficult to explain ... Another letter is to Erdogan ... Well, are they really there ???

            PS ... yes, about the fact that "Trump ahead of time" - he slept, rather, for 40 years or more. He is trying to see and decide everything from the point of view of common sense, which I personally am completely impressed with, but in the modern world it already doesn’t work at all ... Common sense doesn’t work anymore, and we see the results of his activities ...
            1. gorenina91 Offline
              gorenina91 (Irina) 17 October 2019 17: 38
              0
              • 1
              • 1
              ... yes, about the fact that "Trump ahead of time" - he slept, rather, for 40 years or more. He is trying to see and decide everything from the point of view of common sense, which I personally am completely impressed with, but in the modern world it doesn’t work at all ...

              - Ha ... - Yes, it used to be "this did not pass" and now it does not pass ...
              - And Trump, although an old fellow from the past, but plays according to the new rules, like no one else has played ... in the United States, anyway ...
              - Trump really led himself to impeachment ... - this is what he needs ... - He was just preparing for it ...
              - And who is there today against him ...
              - Yes, the Trump financial empire will crush them all like flies ...
              - Yes, did Biden and Pelosi ... - pose a serious problem for Trump ... - Hahah ...
              1. Pishenkov Offline
                Pishenkov (Alexey) 17 October 2019 19: 23
                +1
                • 2
                • 1
                Trump really led himself to impeachment ... - this is what he needs ... - He was just preparing for it ...

                - what for??? What do you think - he has nothing more to do? He does not want a second term? And then, about who will crush someone - Trump is a rich man, but not very ... if you look among the rich ... Forbes list, for example, Czech Prime Minister Andrei Babish is even higher than Trump ... and he is far from omnipotent - against him there are so many people in the States that, in my opinion, have not yet been opposed to the American president. Well, Kennedy, maybe you can compare .. and even then I’m not sure. Why would he impeach ??? Is he a masochist? In my opinion, not at all.
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 October 2019 23: 48
    +1
    • 2
    • 1
    Yes, dreaming .... IMHO, absolutely unrealistic ...
    1. Rusa Offline
      Rusa 17 October 2019 16: 45
      +1
      • 2
      • 1
      Why is it unrealistic? For example, no one thought that the Yankees would drift and flee from Syria, and Putin would be greeted with royal honors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
      In addition, India, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and others aspire to the SCO, many countries that want and already cooperate with the EAEU. Why is Turkey worse than them?
      Now political events are happening, as in a kaleidoscope. Turkey and the Russian Federation, for example, began to trade among themselves for national currencies instead of US dollars, close ties are being established between Turkey and Iran, etc. So, do not make sudden conclusions. It is only just beginning.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 18 October 2019 09: 14
        +1
        • 1
        • 0
        1) Yeah. 3 times. And we won all there 5 times already, and the Armed Forces brought out ... Drifted off, if you find fault?
        2) Have they been striving for 18 years already? And what's stopping you?
        3) Do they want for 4 years already? And what's stopping you?
        5) Turkey, like others (we, too) trade with anyone, just come on, come on, come on ..... gas, F-35, S-400, Patriot, Oplot, SU ... the main thing is cheaper and cheaper loans, and better to give tangerines ....

        Erdogan, as an example, we caught in mass trade and with IG ... terrorists in general. So what? Has something changed?
  4. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 22 October 2019 14: 43
    +1
    • 1
    • 0
    Everything is developing so rapidly that to suggest one or another move of the country. So far, Turkey has not refused to speak with the United States. They have a disagreement. And who does not have them? Wait and see.