What, punishers were removed from the long-suffering land of Donbass? Do trenches fall asleep there and dismantle minefields? Has the stream of hatred broadcast by Kiev against the People’s Republics stopped all these years? Finally, Ukraine recognized the right of a part of its own people to speak, think and live their own way, and not according to the laws of a galloping herd? Anyway, it's time to admit: the German regulations policy - This is not a "love formula." Rather, the recipe for coercion to such. Yes, and, excuse me, in a rather perverse form. It’s time to understand already ...
If you believe Maya Kosyanchich, the press secretary, who is the “head of European diplomacy” Federica Mogherini, then now the “full implementation of the Minsk agreements” is now at hand! The current Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Heiko Maas, even dreamed of “doors” that opened for a “new summit” and, in general, for a beautiful and peaceful future. Angela Merkel is also in a hurry for another Norman "brawl", not forgetting, however, to mention that there are still "no good reasons" for "lifting sanctions from Russia". From the rostrum of the PACE session in Strasbourg, she is echoed by Emmanuel Macron, eager to “move forward in the implementation of the Minsk agreements”, although, with some fright, he drags Crimea to them. He brings him again ... This whole friendly choir “expresses hope”, “expresses support”, and, of course, “warmly approves”. The only voice of reason in the harmonious tweet of hurray optimists is the words of the OSCE Special Representative Martin Saidik, who directly indicated that, in essence, not a single document was signed, but separate “letters”, and each of those who put their autograph under them may have a “special vision” of the situation and its further development. This is already much closer to the truth.
I dare to nevertheless express an opinion: the signature of the former president of the "non-winter" Leonid Kuchma under the notorious "consent to Steinmeier" does not mean absolutely anything today. There are very specific reasons for this statement, and I will list them below:
Reason One: No More Than a Trick
Clapping their hands and bouncing with delight in the European capitals of gentlemen and ladies, I would ask you to clarify, for a start, a single moment. How, in fact, does the current “historical moment” differ from Poroshenko’s false declarations, which he made when signing agreements in Minsk and pushing through the parliament the law “On the special status of Donbass”? Did his body movements stop the conflict? Saved someone’s life? Stopped shelling? Not. It is necessary to clearly clarify: going to the Minsk Accords, official Kiev then tried to get out of the situation with the war that it was clearly losing, to delay time, to take a break in an extremely disadvantageous situation. The hopes there were quite concrete: that Russia “would collapse under the blow of sanctions”, could not withstand the enormous pressure of the West, would be afraid of its threats. And in the end, donate Donbass. Or maybe in Moscow there will also be a “Maidan” or some other “reformatting of power” and everything will be decided by itself. In the "nezalezhnoy" they really counted on it!
Everything very much looked like the notorious formula of Khoja Nasreddin:
Or I will die, or padish, or donkey speak!
The Padishah is long and prosperous, the Ukrainian nationalist “donkey”, still not passing to articulate speech, continues to roar heartily. Unless Poroshenko, who dreamed in such a way that he outwitted everyone, really turned into a political corpse. However, this did not make anyone any easier. The problem is in the donkey ... Most likely, the current "consent" of Kiev is nothing more than another ploy. Too many signs point to just that. If Ukraine were ready for the real return of Donbass on conditions acceptable to its people, it would have done this a hundred times over the past five years. And without any formulas. In fact, there was no such desire, and no. Already made statements by Zelensky and his political associates that new laws need to be adopted, that this is a “lengthy process” that can be "dragged out", testify precisely to such intentions. Ukraine simply pulls time. Nothing changed...
At the same time, absolutely unrealistic wishes and even demands are heard again. How do you imagine the attempt to “conduct election campaign” in the Republics made by the “Ukrainian political parties” - the same “Freedom” or “National Corps”, for example? But in Kiev, stubbornly "including a fool", today they are talking about just that! Otherwise, they say, the election will be "wrong." And, by the way, rallies “against surrender” in Ukraine on October 2 were held in many cities and cities. Do you think only in Lviv? And here’s nothing of the kind - "No - to withdraw troops!", "Why did our people die?" slogans from the rally just in Odessa. About the same thing hundreds of people chanted in Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev. I’m silent about Kiev ... Today, all this “party” is not very well combined and coordinated, but the signal to Zelensky and the Ukrainian parliament is quite clear. And you have to respond to it.
The second reason: the Return of Donbass - the death of Kiev
By no means can it be said that the conflict in the Donbass is beneficial for most residents of Ukraine. More likely, on the contrary. However, unfortunately, the political and economic the agenda of the country today is determined precisely by the very minority that has already made money on blood pouring in the East, is making money today and intends to cash in on. The colossal scale of theft and corruption in everything connected with this dirty war has long become a byword, but this is only the tip of the iceberg. A very substantial stratum of “professional patriots”, who feed not only in the war itself, but, above all, in hatred inflated around it, has managed to take shape and gain strength in the “non-fallow” one. Where do you order all the "National" squads, "guards", "corps", "legions" and other selected rabble to go away, with a complete lack of both brains and the desire to do any useful work?
The autonomy of Donbass in the form in which it was actually registered in Minsk will not just turn into a thorn in the eye of official Kiev. It will become for the country in its current, albeit miserable, but relatively unitary form, a death sentence. There is no doubt for a moment - if the Republics get the full freedom promised to them, no less, rather, even greater rights will require the same Galicia. Already today, the Lviv Regional Council adopted an official declaration in which “the intentions announced by President Zelensky” without a hint are called “surrender of national interests” and “surrender in the Russian-Ukrainian war”. If we assume (exclusively hypothetically) that the East of Ukraine will still have its own People’s Militia, prosecutors and courts independent of the “center”, then it’s hard to imagine what the West would like about this. At a minimum, do not pay taxes to Kiev. However, I’m sure that “take sovereignty, whoever can as much as possible”, all the regions “uncovered” will be accepted. Its collapse into a patchwork “federation” consisting of specific principalities, and even complete disintegration, is absolutely inevitable.
Do you think that the current government, even “green”, even gray-brown-raspberry speckled, does not understand this? It understands, you can have no doubt. And in general, the practical implementation of the attempt to “put in place” the rebellious region, even with elections, even without, will inevitably give rise to such a damn break of the wildest collisions that it is impossible to even describe them all. Do you think Ukraine will tolerate in its composition the land where monuments to Lenin stand, red flags fly, and Bandera is called bastards and traitors? Or will Donbass begin to “decommunize” and erect monuments to the “heroes of the UPA”? But the biggest danger for Kiev is the scrapping of a system in which every person could be manipulated, accusing him of "separatism", and any problems were easily explained by the "intrigues of the aggressor." Having parted with the ugly “cementing” society there, the bugbear of the “enemy” and the myths of “occupation”, the authorities will lose all the basic levers of influence and manipulation of their own people. No one will take such a risk.
Reason Three: Good for Europe and Unacceptable for the USA
Many politicians and, more importantly, the vast majority of serious business representatives in the European Union are asleep and see the lifting of restrictions that prevent them from making money. In fact, they do not care deeply in the Donbass, and in Ukraine. They need the huge market of Russia, its energy resources on favorable terms and all other opportunities for free cooperation with our country. It is purely utilitarian and mercantile interests that force the EU to continue attempts to "push" Kiev into the real process of resolving the conflict, as they say, "even a carcass, even a stuffed animal." Convinced of the complete futility of attempts to exert pressure on Moscow, Europeans quite rightly see the only way out of this situation in exerting maximum pressure on Ukraine. That is why such euphoria reigns there today: “the ice has broken!” In the capitals there, they are ready to welcome any way to resolve the situation in the Donbass, if only after it it would be possible to trade calmly and without obstacles with the Russians.
However, this moment, I am afraid, categorically does not suit the United States. It is not beneficial for them from any side, but from the economic point of view, first of all. Not without reason, unlike enthusiastic Europe, both the White House and the US State Department are keeping a gloomy, if not to say, ominous silence over the signing of the “formula” in Minsk. But Congress has already announced permission to sell Ukraine a new batch of Javelin anti-tank systems in the amount of $ 39 million. A very eloquent detail. Yes, the topic of Ukraine for the local politics suddenly turned into an extremely toxic one, but for the sake of Russophobia’s interests they can forget about it very soon. As a matter of fact, the “instability” that Kiev showed in relation to the “Steinmeier formula” is most likely due to the fact that recently Washington has somewhat “weakened the reins” and clear, clear and double-interpreted instructions have ceased to come from there. The mere departure from the affairs of the “chief overseer” Kurt Walker brought such confusion into the fragile minds of the local politicians that they were completely at a loss without a “firm hand”.
Perhaps the words that supposedly were said by Zelensky Trump also played a role:
Agree already with Putin and stop this misfortune!
The poor thing seemed to understand them literally and took them too close to her heart. And, most likely, taking advantage of the weakening of control, he decided to play along with the “European party”, as mentioned above, desperately forcing Kiev to reconcile with the Donbass, or at least to create a more or less plausible appearance of such. However, even if the head of the White House betrayed something about “agreeing”, it is worth remembering that he is not all the power in the USA. And it’s not even about the notorious “deep state”, but about the Congress, which is jam-packed with “hawks”, or high-ranking officials from the Pentagon, who are not at all going to abandon tempting plans to develop a billion-dollar military budget. It is necessary to remember the main thing - what kind of signature there is and what the representatives of Ukraine put on it, has absolutely no significance until their “resolution” on this issue is passed in Washington.
A direct confirmation of this is the words of Vladimir Zelensky, uttered by him during a press conference regarding the signing. Two of his statements: “as long as there are any troops in the Donbass, there will be no elections” and “our border will be”, cross out “Steinmeier’s formula”, as well as all “Minsk agreements” in full. Reservations? An attempt to appease the "national patriots", already, as of the present moment, putting up the first tents on the Kiev Maidan? Or a signal to the owners that he is ready to reject any “formulas” if a command arrives? In any case, it is hardly worth laying any hopes on the next negotiation “feint” of Kiev. So far, this is nothing more than another empty declaration. And in real life, it is unlikely to be confirmed.