“Russia does not have much time left”

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Russian news agencies have cautiously assessed the outcome of the meeting of NATO foreign ministers held on April 27 in Brussels.





As noted by RIA "News"," The talks between the foreign ministers of NATO countries that ended on Friday in Brussels left an impression technical a meeting that didn’t bring, in any case, in the public space, fundamentally new assessments or decisions: the situation was “saved”, in good spirits and smiling at reporters and colleagues, the new US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which was probably the main event of this show Euro-Atlantic solidarity. ”

Although NATO officials have not formally announced anything new, a number of emphasis in policy North Atlantic Alliance received further clarification. The “technical” nature of the meeting only emphasizes that the main areas of NATO activity are defined and will not change in the future.

Regarding Russia, the following is declared:

Foreign ministers began with Russia, including studying the long-term impact of its foreign and defense policies. The Foreign Ministers reaffirmed the bilateral approach to Russia: tight containment and tight defense combined with substantial dialogue.


At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg added that it is necessary to strengthen NATO’s ability to counter hybrid threats from Russia, that is, those threats that do not include Article 5 trigger, but at the same time are a challenge for NATO countries.

NATO foreign ministers also discussed the so-called Open Door Policy, that is, how the further expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance will take place.

According to Jens Stoltenberg,

[NATO Foreign Ministers] discussed the progress of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Georgia. Ukraine also expressed its desire to join NATO, and ministers noted this.


At the same time, the above countries, according to Stoltenberg, are at different degrees of readiness to join the alliance.

Unambiguously, at the moment, NATO is ready to invite only Macedonia to join the alliance, and then only after Skopje and Athens settle a “dispute over naming Macedonia” (in a latent form - a territorial dispute over the Greek province of Macedonia).

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) will be able to join NATO only after it fully meets the conditions and criteria put forward at the NATO summit in Tallinn in 2010. In fact, we are talking about bringing defense spending to the alliance's required 2% of GDP, although so far BiH has allocated no more than 1% for these purposes.

According to Jens Stoltenberg, members of the alliance highly value Georgia’s interaction with NATO, especially its contribution to joint operations and missions. NATO Secretary General believes that Georgia has all the tools to prepare well for membership in the alliance, and will be able to join when it meets all the necessary requirements.

Stoltenberg promised to continue close cooperation with Tbilisi, and also expressed satisfaction from all the countries of the alliance with the support that NATO is providing with Georgia. At the upcoming summit, the NATO Secretary General noted, Georgia’s progress will be recognized and ways will be found for this.

Despite the fact that the NATO foreign ministers “noted” Ukraine’s desire to join the alliance, the statements regarding Kiev were more restrained, and in some ways resembled a “bilateral policy” with respect to Moscow.

According to Jens Stoltenberg, “Ukraine is our partner, a very close partner, but at the same time, Ukraine is also a victim of Russian aggression, the illegal annexation of Crimea and Russia's efforts to destabilize the situation in Eastern Ukraine. All this makes it important for the Allies to find a way to express their continued solidarity with Ukraine. ”

The caution of Jens Stoltenberg's remarks on the question of Ukraine contrasts with the much more decisive tone of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo:

Today there was a discussion about Ukraine, about its potential entry [into NATO] There is a lot of work that needs to be done to achieve this.


Thus, although the issue of Ukraine’s joining NATO, although it looks like a very distant prospect, it is not at all unbelievable. And this means that Russia does not have much time left for a fair and equal settlement of relations with Ukraine, a turning point may come, for example, in 2030, and, possibly, earlier.