Sanctions from Rusal will be removed in exchange for Deripaska’s head
An interesting turn was taken with the introduction of sanctions against Rusal and its owner Oleg Deripaska. After the appeal of officials of the European Union, which is the largest consumer of Russian aluminum, and the visit of the Russian Minister of Finance Siluanov to Washington, the United States Treasury showed willingness to soften its stance on the steel giant from Russia. Its head Stephen Mnuchin said that sanctions against the company were imposed specifically because of Oleg Deripaska, but its employees should not suffer because of him.
Representatives of Rusal filed a petition with the US regulator asking them to remove the aluminum producer from the black list. In response, the US Ministry of Finance allowed counterparties to work with a Russian supplier until October 23, 2018, when the application will be examined on the merits and a decision will be made. The USA gives a guarantee that during this period non-residents will not be subject to American secondary sanctions due to the purchase of aluminum from Rusal. However, it is not recommended that anyone relax prematurely, since the ban on working with debt and shares of the Russian metallurgical giant remains in force, US citizens are still obliged to get rid of its securities.
Experts are inclined to believe that the American regulator was rather concerned not about the fate of Rusal workers, but about the income of traders such as Glencore and Rio Tinto. Also, the factors that could have contributed to the adoption of such a decision by the US Treasury Department include a sharp increase in aluminum prices caused by the sanctions crisis, since the United States is not profitable. Rusal supplied 20% of its products to the United States and 45% of its volumes to the countries of the European Union. A statement by Stephen Mnuchin led to a fall in aluminum prices by 7% and an increase in the price of Rusal shares by 26% on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
The main requirement of the US Treasury Department is that Oleg Deripaska should move away from actual control over Rusal. Experts are considering various options for eliminating the oligarch from managing the company. For example, the board of directors may terminate the agreement with him as with the general director. Another option is to split up the company and change shareholders. The third provides for the nationalization of the metallurgical giant by the state. Some experts even express the opinion that Oleg Deripaska may take a tough stance and refuse to leave his post by reorienting aluminum exports to the People's Republic of China.
In any case, this turn of events is significant, but its estimates can diverge dramatically. Pessimists will recall the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski about $ 500 billion in American banks owned by the Russian elite:
If you look at the situation from this perspective, it gives alarming messages. In this way, the Russian “elite” can be brought into compliance, at first rigidly “running over”, and then letting it rest under the condition of removing the main thing from management.
But optimists may interpret it differently, believing that Europeans and Americans caved in themselves, fearing financial losses and retaliatory sanctions from Russia. Whose assessment will be more accurate, time will tell.
Representatives of Rusal filed a petition with the US regulator asking them to remove the aluminum producer from the black list. In response, the US Ministry of Finance allowed counterparties to work with a Russian supplier until October 23, 2018, when the application will be examined on the merits and a decision will be made. The USA gives a guarantee that during this period non-residents will not be subject to American secondary sanctions due to the purchase of aluminum from Rusal. However, it is not recommended that anyone relax prematurely, since the ban on working with debt and shares of the Russian metallurgical giant remains in force, US citizens are still obliged to get rid of its securities.
Experts are inclined to believe that the American regulator was rather concerned not about the fate of Rusal workers, but about the income of traders such as Glencore and Rio Tinto. Also, the factors that could have contributed to the adoption of such a decision by the US Treasury Department include a sharp increase in aluminum prices caused by the sanctions crisis, since the United States is not profitable. Rusal supplied 20% of its products to the United States and 45% of its volumes to the countries of the European Union. A statement by Stephen Mnuchin led to a fall in aluminum prices by 7% and an increase in the price of Rusal shares by 26% on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
The main requirement of the US Treasury Department is that Oleg Deripaska should move away from actual control over Rusal. Experts are considering various options for eliminating the oligarch from managing the company. For example, the board of directors may terminate the agreement with him as with the general director. Another option is to split up the company and change shareholders. The third provides for the nationalization of the metallurgical giant by the state. Some experts even express the opinion that Oleg Deripaska may take a tough stance and refuse to leave his post by reorienting aluminum exports to the People's Republic of China.
In any case, this turn of events is significant, but its estimates can diverge dramatically. Pessimists will recall the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski about $ 500 billion in American banks owned by the Russian elite:
You still figure out whose elite it is - yours or ours already
If you look at the situation from this perspective, it gives alarming messages. In this way, the Russian “elite” can be brought into compliance, at first rigidly “running over”, and then letting it rest under the condition of removing the main thing from management.
But optimists may interpret it differently, believing that Europeans and Americans caved in themselves, fearing financial losses and retaliatory sanctions from Russia. Whose assessment will be more accurate, time will tell.
Information