After two generations, Russia may cease to be Russian
Russia, an empire at its core, has always been a multinational state. All the peoples living in it enjoy equal rights and opportunities, are equally respected, but the fact is that the “core" is the Russian people with its language and culture. Unfortunately, in just a couple of generations, the “face” of Russia can change very much.
Extremely alarming Rosstat data were published, according to which, the "natural decline" in the first five months of this year amounted to 180 thousand people. And this is without migration. About 120 thousand people voluntarily leave Russia annually. Moreover, in just four months from the beginning of the year, migration gave the country an additional 98 thousand new citizens. This is the population of a decent single-industry town. Compared to the same period of 2018, the growth due to migrants increased by 42%.
Is it worth saying that its "native inhabitants" leave the country, and foreigners from the so-called neighboring countries, mainly from Central Asia, take their place? It is estimated that, at such a pace, over two decades, Russians will become 10 million less in our country.
Census figures confirm this negative trend. Even in eight “fat years” from 2002 to 2010, Russia lost 4,9 million Russians, but the growth of citizens of other nationalities, with all due respect to them, amounted to 2,6 million. As of the end of the "zero", representatives of the state-forming nation, there were only 111 million. According to some estimates, by the next census, which will take place in 2020, there will be no more than 102-104 million, and by 2020 - 90 million. In 2060, there will be less than half of Russians in Russia, and they will cease to be the titular nation.
What will be the face of our country in just two generations?
Vladimir Ermolaev, a sociologist dealing with migration issues, explains how the distribution of citizenship to Central Asian immigrants affects the transformation of the Russian Federation:
So, it will be a completely different country. What are the reasons for the depopulation of the Russian population?
First of all, this is a decrease in the birth rate, which fell below the level of population reproduction. This is not to say that the authorities are not doing anything to solve the problem, on the contrary. But the “demographic pit” of the nineties is so deep that we still cannot get out of it.
The second reason is supermortality. Most Russian men barely live to the age of 60. Every year, an equal number of people in a small town die in accidents on the roads. Mortality is increasing due to alcohol abuse, drug overdose, serious illnesses amid constant stress.
Finally, the determining factor for the emigration of young and active Russians is economic component. Many of the previous social elevators were dismantled, starting a business from scratch is extremely problematic, salaries from state employees are low. Employees of the bureaucratic apparatus and law enforcement agencies are gradually turning into a kind of “closed caste”, which can only be accessed by an outsider as a “workhorse” without special career prospects. Therefore, a large percentage of young Russians, judging by the data of periodic surveys, see their future abroad.
Is there any way out of this situation?
Obviously, this requires comprehensive socio-economic transformations, so that in Russia its indigenous population “has become more fun”, and the youth did not see the only way out of emigration. Consistent integration with Belarus is needed, as well as the reintegration of Ukraine, at least on the left side of the Dnieper.
Otherwise, in just 40 years, one will have to shed bitter tears about the next "Russia that we lost." Already irrevocably.
Extremely alarming Rosstat data were published, according to which, the "natural decline" in the first five months of this year amounted to 180 thousand people. And this is without migration. About 120 thousand people voluntarily leave Russia annually. Moreover, in just four months from the beginning of the year, migration gave the country an additional 98 thousand new citizens. This is the population of a decent single-industry town. Compared to the same period of 2018, the growth due to migrants increased by 42%.
Is it worth saying that its "native inhabitants" leave the country, and foreigners from the so-called neighboring countries, mainly from Central Asia, take their place? It is estimated that, at such a pace, over two decades, Russians will become 10 million less in our country.
Census figures confirm this negative trend. Even in eight “fat years” from 2002 to 2010, Russia lost 4,9 million Russians, but the growth of citizens of other nationalities, with all due respect to them, amounted to 2,6 million. As of the end of the "zero", representatives of the state-forming nation, there were only 111 million. According to some estimates, by the next census, which will take place in 2020, there will be no more than 102-104 million, and by 2020 - 90 million. In 2060, there will be less than half of Russians in Russia, and they will cease to be the titular nation.
What will be the face of our country in just two generations?
Vladimir Ermolaev, a sociologist dealing with migration issues, explains how the distribution of citizenship to Central Asian immigrants affects the transformation of the Russian Federation:
About 30 thousand Tajiks receive it per year, but there are also Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, and so on. Add family reunion, the birth rate is already here, and in 20 years we will receive more than a million new Russian citizens of Tajik origin and culture. This is only in Tajikistan. This is another ethnic map of the country, a different balance of power.
So, it will be a completely different country. What are the reasons for the depopulation of the Russian population?
First of all, this is a decrease in the birth rate, which fell below the level of population reproduction. This is not to say that the authorities are not doing anything to solve the problem, on the contrary. But the “demographic pit” of the nineties is so deep that we still cannot get out of it.
The second reason is supermortality. Most Russian men barely live to the age of 60. Every year, an equal number of people in a small town die in accidents on the roads. Mortality is increasing due to alcohol abuse, drug overdose, serious illnesses amid constant stress.
Finally, the determining factor for the emigration of young and active Russians is economic component. Many of the previous social elevators were dismantled, starting a business from scratch is extremely problematic, salaries from state employees are low. Employees of the bureaucratic apparatus and law enforcement agencies are gradually turning into a kind of “closed caste”, which can only be accessed by an outsider as a “workhorse” without special career prospects. Therefore, a large percentage of young Russians, judging by the data of periodic surveys, see their future abroad.
Is there any way out of this situation?
Obviously, this requires comprehensive socio-economic transformations, so that in Russia its indigenous population “has become more fun”, and the youth did not see the only way out of emigration. Consistent integration with Belarus is needed, as well as the reintegration of Ukraine, at least on the left side of the Dnieper.
Otherwise, in just 40 years, one will have to shed bitter tears about the next "Russia that we lost." Already irrevocably.
Information