“Ice is melting between us”: the decisive battle for the Arctic is getting closer
In the United States, there continues to be an escalation of passions about "Russian aggression in the Arctic." The local media do not miss the opportunity to raise this topic again and again, and often do not disdain frankly speculative moments, such as drawing the recent tragedy on the AS-12 submarine to it. The main leitmotif of numerous speakers speaking on this topic - from various experts to Washington officials, is: Russians are coming from the North! What are we waiting for ?! Apparently, this is nothing more than a powerful informational “artillery preparation” before the US attempt, with the support of the Allies, to launch a decisive counterattack beyond the Arctic Circle. Does this have a chance of success and how real is the large-scale conflict in the Arctic region?
Donald Trump may deny the theory of "global warming" and refuse to participate in the fight against it, but the facts are stubborn things. Arctic ice is inexorably melting, and the further - the faster. Over the past decade, 13.5% of these have turned into water. From under the millennial hummocks and, which until recently seemed invincible, the sparkling many kilometers of ice "shell", new lands and waters are erected in front of the eyes of the present generation, for which world powers are ready to meet in a fierce battle. There is something to fight for - too many beckoning riches, which for the time being were unattainable, but now becoming more accessible for development. With a total area of only 6% of the Earth, the Arctic holds, according to various researchers, up to 13% of undiscovered oil deposits and up to a third of potential natural gas reserves. Scientists working in this area estimate its “energy potential” at 90 million barrels of “black gold” and more than 1600 trillion cubic meters of “blue fuel”. At least, these are the numbers voiced by researchers from Webster University in Vienna. One way or another, all world experts agree: the reserves of the "Arctic pantry" are truly huge.
There is another factor - the Northern Sea Route. Today, its potential is just beginning to unfold, but it is already visible with the naked eye to all interested individuals and countries. And although in 2018 its cargo flow amounted to a little more than 20 million tons (against the billion tons that passed through the same Suez Canal), however, geography, as you know, is an exact science - the Northern Sea Route is only 14 thousand kilometers, and the road through Suez has been beaten for centuries - 23 thousand. Accordingly, the delivery time is reduced by at least ten days. Faster delivery - significantly lower final price of goods. This is the ABC of logistics. An important factor for carriers is the complete absence of the danger of piracy on this route, which today has turned into a serious headache for shipowners. Of particular importance is the Northern Sea Route for the countries of East Asia - Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and, of course, China, whose goods diverge around the world in an ever-increasing flow. However, Russian exports, of the same LNG, will seriously benefit in the context of increased Arctic shipping. So far, our country plans to significantly increase the volume of traffic along the Northern Sea Route only by 2030, but everyone understands that this is only the beginning. Time works for us. The ice separating West and East is rapidly melting and every year the period of navigation beyond the Arctic Circle, apparently, will only increase.
It is hard to believe, but during the Cold War, the United States and NATO as a whole, “blocked” the Arctic region much more reliably than now. An example is the military base on Adak Island, where the US Air Force kept the Lockheed P-1942 Orion squadron from 1997 to 3 for a possible fight against Soviet submarines. Then the base was closed, turning into a commercial airport. In 2011, the Second Fleet of the US Navy, which controlled the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean, was disbanded. Most of the ships, which are not very powerful American icebreaking flotilla, quietly turned into scrap metal at the berths. Washington relaxed, finally believing that the USSR had sunk into oblivion, and Russia could never become for him an equally serious geopolitical and military adversary. Feeling like the masters of the planet, the United States enthusiastically built aircraft carriers to “bring democracy” to the warm southern seas and bays of the Middle East. The American army was chasing after “terrorists” (mainly their own “production”) through hot deserts and mountains. They forgot about the harsh Arctic, considering it an “ice fortress” that reliably shields the United States from any dangers. The awakening was all the more unpleasant ...
As it turned out, over the same years, Russia has not only not lost, but multiplied its own Arctic potential many times, and dozens of icebreakers are ready to cut many kilometers long icebreakers - from modern nuclear power plants to quite peppy "old men" who can cope with the icy expanses of the Arctic. The military potential of our country in this region turned out to be even more frightening for its competitors - all of a sudden, “flourished” in the latitudes “Northern clover” and “Arctic trefoil”, which seemed to be completely unsuitable for permanent service, showed that the Russians did not just return to these lands , and intend to settle there seriously and for a long time. Moreover, with ever-growing hostility, the West is forced from year to year to ascertain the constant build-up of Russia's potential in the region. One by one, the newest heavy icebreaking vessels were laid down and left the slipways, the fleet of which should have 2035 pennants by 13, 9 of which will be nuclear. How to answer ?! Yes, Boeing P-8 Poseidon is “settling in” on Adak, replacing the outdated Lockheed in the US Air Force, the Second Fleet is reviving at an accelerated pace, and allocations for building new vessels suitable for sailing in the Arctic latitudes are being “knocked out” of Congress. However, 6 patrol icebreakers hastily laid down at the VT Halter Marine shipyards, the first of which they plan to launch no earlier than 2024-2026, and are not nearly catching up with the growing and growing Russian polar fleet. Not without reason the other day, the American resource National Review posted an article with a depressing headline: "The US is hopelessly losing Russia to the fight for the Arctic!"
Can this very struggle result in a full-scale confrontation? Alas, yes. As mentioned above - the stakes are too high. Moreover, one more thing should not be discounted. A state that has been firmly entrenched in the Arctic will receive undeniable advantages in the field of missile defense, as well as the opportunity to threaten the enemy with a nuclear strike, from which he simply does not have time to defend himself. This is well understood both in Washington and in Moscow, and therefore they are not going to “slow down”. At a certain stage - when the United States decides that it is ready to give a decisive battle, it will only take a pretext. And those in the Arctic matters - more than enough. The simplest thing is to declare that Russia’s legal requirements regarding the rules of navigation along the Northern Sea Route are “contrary to international standards” and, therefore, not enforceable. In particular, the declared need for foreign military vessels to request permission from our country to pass through it, to accept, on a mandatory basis, their aboard Russian pilots, and so on. Everything is serious - otherwise they promise to arrest the violators, or even let them go to the bottom. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has repeatedly called these decisions "a manifestation of aggression," and Washington and its sub-voices demanded "to make navigation on the Northern Sea Route free for everyone", obviously, meaning by this the unhindered wandering of their own heavily armed ships off our coasts. Here is the first reason for a fight ...
There will be, if necessary, others. So, General Mark Milli, who is being “tried on” today as the head of the Committee of the Chief of Staff of the US Armed Forces, recently announced that the ships deployed by our country in the Arctic are armed with cruise missiles, which allow not only to control the Northern Sea Route, but also to strike at territories of the USA and Canada. And this is a direct threat to the national security of the United States! But with such conversations, wars sometimes start. They add fuel to the fire and the media. As I already mentioned at the very beginning, conspiracy theological theories and versions regarding the accident on the AS-12 submarine are now in full swing in the West. We noted in this field, for example, the American resource ARS Technica and the solid (seemingly) British The Times. Both publications affirm with one voice: the ship that suffered the accident carried out a kind of “top-secret mission in the Arctic”, aimed at further militarizing it and consolidating the Russian economic superiority. How exactly ?! Well, for example, it placed sensors on the ocean floor for detecting U.S. Navy submarines to prevent them from entering this water area. This, of course, is the version of the Americans. However, the British are no less nonsense. The main thing is to concoct another accusation against our country, which later again can again be used as a pretext for confrontation.
However, it is quite possible that one will not have to be particularly sophisticated - it is not a secret to anyone that the United States and its allies in the person of Canada, Norway and Denmark have very serious territorial claims to the Arctic shelf. The position of our country is that the priority rights for its development are states that have the longest coastline in the Arctic - that is, first of all, Russia. Washington and its allies do not understand with what joy they demand to divide, not in fairness, but “equally” - to declare the shelf international and to regulate its use by legislation on the high seas. That is, in fact, they are making another extremely arrogant attempt to rob us. There are also enough other "apples of contention", such as the notorious Baker-Shevardnadze treaty, with which Washington is trying to poke Moscow constantly in contentious moments. This is despite the fact that this agreement, concluded during the collapse of the USSR, was not ratified by Russia and never will be - according to approximate estimates, the damage from it only in the field of fishing, and only for the first 11 years, amounted to more than $ 2 billion. In addition, his border line in the Bering Strait blocks the Northern Sea Route from the East. Nevertheless, the United States continues to stand its ground and, if necessary, can raise this moment to the shield.
There is no doubt - if it were not for the decisive lag in the military capabilities of the United States and NATO in the field of military operations in the Arctic latitudes, Russia would have already been tried to force submission by force. However, in the West there is no hope that they will be able to equalize the chances. The only thing that our country can and should do in such a situation is to make every effort to ensure that this never happens.
There is something to fight for
Donald Trump may deny the theory of "global warming" and refuse to participate in the fight against it, but the facts are stubborn things. Arctic ice is inexorably melting, and the further - the faster. Over the past decade, 13.5% of these have turned into water. From under the millennial hummocks and, which until recently seemed invincible, the sparkling many kilometers of ice "shell", new lands and waters are erected in front of the eyes of the present generation, for which world powers are ready to meet in a fierce battle. There is something to fight for - too many beckoning riches, which for the time being were unattainable, but now becoming more accessible for development. With a total area of only 6% of the Earth, the Arctic holds, according to various researchers, up to 13% of undiscovered oil deposits and up to a third of potential natural gas reserves. Scientists working in this area estimate its “energy potential” at 90 million barrels of “black gold” and more than 1600 trillion cubic meters of “blue fuel”. At least, these are the numbers voiced by researchers from Webster University in Vienna. One way or another, all world experts agree: the reserves of the "Arctic pantry" are truly huge.
There is another factor - the Northern Sea Route. Today, its potential is just beginning to unfold, but it is already visible with the naked eye to all interested individuals and countries. And although in 2018 its cargo flow amounted to a little more than 20 million tons (against the billion tons that passed through the same Suez Canal), however, geography, as you know, is an exact science - the Northern Sea Route is only 14 thousand kilometers, and the road through Suez has been beaten for centuries - 23 thousand. Accordingly, the delivery time is reduced by at least ten days. Faster delivery - significantly lower final price of goods. This is the ABC of logistics. An important factor for carriers is the complete absence of the danger of piracy on this route, which today has turned into a serious headache for shipowners. Of particular importance is the Northern Sea Route for the countries of East Asia - Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and, of course, China, whose goods diverge around the world in an ever-increasing flow. However, Russian exports, of the same LNG, will seriously benefit in the context of increased Arctic shipping. So far, our country plans to significantly increase the volume of traffic along the Northern Sea Route only by 2030, but everyone understands that this is only the beginning. Time works for us. The ice separating West and East is rapidly melting and every year the period of navigation beyond the Arctic Circle, apparently, will only increase.
Arctic Race: Start Odds
It is hard to believe, but during the Cold War, the United States and NATO as a whole, “blocked” the Arctic region much more reliably than now. An example is the military base on Adak Island, where the US Air Force kept the Lockheed P-1942 Orion squadron from 1997 to 3 for a possible fight against Soviet submarines. Then the base was closed, turning into a commercial airport. In 2011, the Second Fleet of the US Navy, which controlled the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean, was disbanded. Most of the ships, which are not very powerful American icebreaking flotilla, quietly turned into scrap metal at the berths. Washington relaxed, finally believing that the USSR had sunk into oblivion, and Russia could never become for him an equally serious geopolitical and military adversary. Feeling like the masters of the planet, the United States enthusiastically built aircraft carriers to “bring democracy” to the warm southern seas and bays of the Middle East. The American army was chasing after “terrorists” (mainly their own “production”) through hot deserts and mountains. They forgot about the harsh Arctic, considering it an “ice fortress” that reliably shields the United States from any dangers. The awakening was all the more unpleasant ...
As it turned out, over the same years, Russia has not only not lost, but multiplied its own Arctic potential many times, and dozens of icebreakers are ready to cut many kilometers long icebreakers - from modern nuclear power plants to quite peppy "old men" who can cope with the icy expanses of the Arctic. The military potential of our country in this region turned out to be even more frightening for its competitors - all of a sudden, “flourished” in the latitudes “Northern clover” and “Arctic trefoil”, which seemed to be completely unsuitable for permanent service, showed that the Russians did not just return to these lands , and intend to settle there seriously and for a long time. Moreover, with ever-growing hostility, the West is forced from year to year to ascertain the constant build-up of Russia's potential in the region. One by one, the newest heavy icebreaking vessels were laid down and left the slipways, the fleet of which should have 2035 pennants by 13, 9 of which will be nuclear. How to answer ?! Yes, Boeing P-8 Poseidon is “settling in” on Adak, replacing the outdated Lockheed in the US Air Force, the Second Fleet is reviving at an accelerated pace, and allocations for building new vessels suitable for sailing in the Arctic latitudes are being “knocked out” of Congress. However, 6 patrol icebreakers hastily laid down at the VT Halter Marine shipyards, the first of which they plan to launch no earlier than 2024-2026, and are not nearly catching up with the growing and growing Russian polar fleet. Not without reason the other day, the American resource National Review posted an article with a depressing headline: "The US is hopelessly losing Russia to the fight for the Arctic!"
Hot conflict in cold latitudes
Can this very struggle result in a full-scale confrontation? Alas, yes. As mentioned above - the stakes are too high. Moreover, one more thing should not be discounted. A state that has been firmly entrenched in the Arctic will receive undeniable advantages in the field of missile defense, as well as the opportunity to threaten the enemy with a nuclear strike, from which he simply does not have time to defend himself. This is well understood both in Washington and in Moscow, and therefore they are not going to “slow down”. At a certain stage - when the United States decides that it is ready to give a decisive battle, it will only take a pretext. And those in the Arctic matters - more than enough. The simplest thing is to declare that Russia’s legal requirements regarding the rules of navigation along the Northern Sea Route are “contrary to international standards” and, therefore, not enforceable. In particular, the declared need for foreign military vessels to request permission from our country to pass through it, to accept, on a mandatory basis, their aboard Russian pilots, and so on. Everything is serious - otherwise they promise to arrest the violators, or even let them go to the bottom. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has repeatedly called these decisions "a manifestation of aggression," and Washington and its sub-voices demanded "to make navigation on the Northern Sea Route free for everyone", obviously, meaning by this the unhindered wandering of their own heavily armed ships off our coasts. Here is the first reason for a fight ...
There will be, if necessary, others. So, General Mark Milli, who is being “tried on” today as the head of the Committee of the Chief of Staff of the US Armed Forces, recently announced that the ships deployed by our country in the Arctic are armed with cruise missiles, which allow not only to control the Northern Sea Route, but also to strike at territories of the USA and Canada. And this is a direct threat to the national security of the United States! But with such conversations, wars sometimes start. They add fuel to the fire and the media. As I already mentioned at the very beginning, conspiracy theological theories and versions regarding the accident on the AS-12 submarine are now in full swing in the West. We noted in this field, for example, the American resource ARS Technica and the solid (seemingly) British The Times. Both publications affirm with one voice: the ship that suffered the accident carried out a kind of “top-secret mission in the Arctic”, aimed at further militarizing it and consolidating the Russian economic superiority. How exactly ?! Well, for example, it placed sensors on the ocean floor for detecting U.S. Navy submarines to prevent them from entering this water area. This, of course, is the version of the Americans. However, the British are no less nonsense. The main thing is to concoct another accusation against our country, which later again can again be used as a pretext for confrontation.
However, it is quite possible that one will not have to be particularly sophisticated - it is not a secret to anyone that the United States and its allies in the person of Canada, Norway and Denmark have very serious territorial claims to the Arctic shelf. The position of our country is that the priority rights for its development are states that have the longest coastline in the Arctic - that is, first of all, Russia. Washington and its allies do not understand with what joy they demand to divide, not in fairness, but “equally” - to declare the shelf international and to regulate its use by legislation on the high seas. That is, in fact, they are making another extremely arrogant attempt to rob us. There are also enough other "apples of contention", such as the notorious Baker-Shevardnadze treaty, with which Washington is trying to poke Moscow constantly in contentious moments. This is despite the fact that this agreement, concluded during the collapse of the USSR, was not ratified by Russia and never will be - according to approximate estimates, the damage from it only in the field of fishing, and only for the first 11 years, amounted to more than $ 2 billion. In addition, his border line in the Bering Strait blocks the Northern Sea Route from the East. Nevertheless, the United States continues to stand its ground and, if necessary, can raise this moment to the shield.
There is no doubt - if it were not for the decisive lag in the military capabilities of the United States and NATO in the field of military operations in the Arctic latitudes, Russia would have already been tried to force submission by force. However, in the West there is no hope that they will be able to equalize the chances. The only thing that our country can and should do in such a situation is to make every effort to ensure that this never happens.
Information