War, as a universal way to solve all problems
Nobody wanted war, war was inevitable. Looking at the narrowing ring of tension around Iran, at all these countless provocations with undermined or allegedly undermined tankers, first in the Gulf of Oman off the coast of the UAE, then in the Strait of Hormuz already off the coast of Iran itself; on a US $ 18 million RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone shot down at an altitude of 160 thousand meters and a wingspan of 40 m, as well as a Boeing P- which was not shot down but could be shot down by the US Air Force 8 Poseidon already with a crew of 35 on board; and taking into account the increase in the contingent of the US Armed Forces in the Middle East in the Central Command area of responsibility (CENTCOM) by another 1500 people, including the B-52H Stratofortress strategic service bombers arriving at the air force base in Qatar and deployed on the Iranian border Patriot anti-aircraft missile system, capable of shooting down ballistic and cruise missiles; as well as watching the strengthening of the US naval group in the Persian Gulf, when to the escort group of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, consisting of seven ships, consisting of the USS Leyte Gulf missile cruiser, 3 destroyers - USS Bainbridge, USS Mason and USS Nitze, Spanish Mendez Nunez frigate and 2 strike nuclear submarines with Tomahawks on board joined two more missile destroyers - USS McFaul and USS Gonzalez, carrying 56 Tomahawks each, and the USS Arlington commando landing ship, designed to give additional control capabilities troops, you come to small the comforting conclusion that all this is not just.
It seems that the States are preparing for another war in the region. Or scare it. And given the irresponsible nature of the current White House resident, from whom you can expect everything, you begin to involuntarily look around. Is the next war in the bay coming? After all, each Republican president had his own war. And why is our cowboy worse? The current lord of the frenzied Tomahawks, with his inadequate and unpredictable behavior in the international arena, is more and more reminiscent of the behavior of an elephant in a china shop than policy, who is responsible for his actions and the consequences thereof, taught us that everything can be expected from him. This is a big mistake. Anything but wars. Believe me, Trump is not a suicide at all, and you should not confuse a real war with its threat, because these, as they say in Odessa, are two big differences. And Trump, pulling troops to the Middle East and creating tension there, solves completely different problems there.
What - it became clear after the unidentified DRG undermined several oil pipelines in Syria and one in Saudi Arabia. It would seem, where is Syria, where is KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) and where is Iran, and what does oil have to do with it? But it turns out with everything. We’ll talk about this ...
Closed Black Gold Caster Club
When on June 12 this year, for the first time since January 2019, Brent oil prices fell below $ 60 per barrel, the Oval Office realized that something had to be done. The decline began at the end of May, when in three days - from May 29 to 31, quotes collapsed by more than 11% - from 70 to 61,7 dollars / bar. At the same time, North American WTI crude oil was trading even lower - about $ 52,5 per barrel. Then it was caused by the release of data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which announced the reserves of oil and petroleum products in the United States. Oil reserves at the end of May increased by 4,7 million barrels, while according to forecasts they were expected to decrease by 800 thousand barrels. According to the same EIA data, it became clear that in May the States updated their record for oil production, fixing it at 12,3 million bar / day, which was 1,5 million barrels more than a year ago. Moreover, no one was surprised by the fact that the States retained their first place among all oil-producing countries in terms of production and net exporting status (in December 1, for the first time since 2018, the United States began to export more oil than import, and since then this figure has only grown, reaching 1973 million bar / day in May).
It would seem, live and rejoice. Oil reserves and exports are rising, prices are falling, which directly affects the cost of a gallon of gasoline for all American consumers, and, therefore, for the entire American economics. What more could Trump want? However, which is good for the entire US economy, it turned out to be bad for oil producers. They are just interested in high oil prices, since the cost of its production in shale fields ranges from 30 to 55-60 dollars, depending on the field. And the health of the entire American economy directly depends on the health of the shale revolutionaries. This Trump quickly truncated, unlike his predecessor, who called us the gas station in Europe. Now the new owner of the Oval Office himself wants to take our place, squeezing out our market share from us and the rest of the oil exporters. And for this, all methods are good. With all the trump cards in Trump’s hands.
There are only four of them, but they are of deadly force. So far, oil prices have been dictated by the closed club of OPEC + oil exporting countries (these are 14 OPEC countries with 10 more non-member countries that joined them, including the Russian Federation). Which, by twisting or unscrewing the “tap”, has so far regulated oil prices up or down (a lot of oil - the price is falling, a little - is increasing). Now this “faucet” is in the hands of the United States, where the NOPEC Institute (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act - evaluate the humor of American congressmen, one name is worth it!), Which will legally prosecute OPEC for a cartel agreement, has already been created and is undergoing the latest congressional approval. A cartel conspiracy is very bad! From the point of view of American legislation, it is equal in severity to tax evasion. And this is the worst economic crime in America. For him and the execution in some states can solder. After Congress passed anti-cartel legislation for OPEC, black times will begin.
But while the court and the Trump case, there are enough other three tools to influence the volume and price of oil produced. The first among them is sanctions, with the help of which the US administration can arbitrarily remove significant volumes of oil from the market. How she used them, we already see on the example of Iran and Venezuela. The second and probably the most important of them is the Fed tool. The whole point is that the global oil market has long been hopelessly speculative. More than 80% of all transactions in the world, in fact, are paper, where as such there is no oil. The volume of these transactions, in turn, depends on the amount in the moment of dollars in the market. The beneficiary and regulator of this whole story is the US Federal Reserve. What has the Fed done lately? She, by raising the discount rate, removed excess liquidity from the market. As a result, the money left the main speculative world market - from the oil market to other platforms, including American securities and the dollar itself, because it becomes more profitable (the lower the liquidity, the stronger the dollar). Unclear? I’ll explain now. What happens when the discount rate rises? There is less money in free circulation (because credit borrowing is becoming more expensive). What happens in this case? Oil prices are falling because speculators bargaining on the exchange, owners of oil futures are dumping them cheaply on a falling trend, fixing at least some profit. And this process has an avalanche-like character. But do we know who caused this avalanche?
I dare to argue that the current drop in oil prices was associated with speculative investment funds managed from the United States (approximately 98% of all traded contracts on commodity exchanges are formed among American or pro-American structures), which lowered the bar for demand for oil futures (“bearish” diver "). When there is no demand, the price falls. At the same time, I do not exclude that all these games on the exchanges are the result of the activities of Trump’s enemies, the liberal-financial elite of the United States, tightly connected with transnational corporations (globalists, conditional “rockefellers”) who don’t give a damn about the States, they pray to completely different gods, not nationally bound. Therefore, without hesitating, they save their grandmothers, taking profits, leaving oil futures, on a falling trend, which further bumps quotes. If my assumption is correct, then Trump’s response with increased US military activity in the oil-bearing region of the Middle East is caused by this in the hope of a “bullish reversal”. And I swear by my mother - he will get his way, prices will creep up. Usually, one tweet was enough for this, and then the whole squadron floats in the region (but more on that below).
OPEC +, without waiting for this, seeing what is happening in order to stop the fall in prices, begins consultations on the need to prolong the current reduction in production, which expires in June of this year. The decision has not yet been made, but we already know it. Putin himself leaked when, at his press conference following the G20 summit in Osaka, he announced that he had agreed with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad ibn Salman Al Saud, to extend the OPEC + transaction for at least another 6-9 months. The decision on this will be taken on July 1-2 at the next OPEC + meeting in Vienna. No one doubts that it will be positive. Who will benefit from this? That's right, the United States of America, which will make up for the volumes that disappear from the market with its oil. They are not included in OPEC +; restrictions do not apply to them. Handsomely? Those. at first they themselves provoked a fall in oil prices, turning on the Fed tool, and then, blackmailing this fact, forced OPEC + to reduce production, so that later they themselves could occupy the vacant place in the market. Great party!
But shale workers cannot wait, the process of price recovery has low volatility, and then Trump’s sleeve for accelerating the process has a third tool, the most reliable. The last, so to speak, argument of the kings is a war club. And in the den of oil sheikhs and Persian shahs, American destroyers and submarines with “Tomahawks” appear on board, which can clog the narrow neck of the Strait of Hormuz and make it impossible to sell their oil not only to the Gulf countries, but also the ability to buy its main trading competitor, China (the fact that India, Korea, Japan, the EU will also suffer from this is their personal sexual difficulties, Trump is the director of America and his head hurts only for her!). As a result, Trump beat all of them with one hit. And who will say after that that he is not well done ?!
By the way, I would not trust so unconditionally the data of the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which announced the record oil reserves in the USA for May, which served as the trigger for the current drop in oil prices. I dare to assert that there was no overabundance of supply on the oil market, and there couldn’t be (who really checked the availability of oil in American storage facilities?). The fall in oil prices has nothing to do with the balance of supply and demand, just as it was not in 2015. All this is fake. Call it stakeholder games, but you don’t need to tie the balance of supply and demand here. Changing oil prices is not a market story at all. The price of commodities is determined not by the volume of supply and demand, but by the amount of money that revolves in the futures market, that is, in speculative markets (I spoke about this above).
Indifferent statistics show that over the past four years, oil demand around the world has grown by 7%, and supply by only 5%. And 95% of these 5% were provided by only three countries. Guess which ones? You will never guess - this is the USA, Iraq and Iran. For the simple reason that it was they and also Libya and Venezuela that were not subject to the quotas and restrictions adopted by OPEC and OPEC + since 2016. But Libya, due to the technological and managerial degradation of the oil industry, was not able to restore the pre-war / pre-revolutionary level of production (in fact, we have 1 million barrels less). And Venezuela is under US sanctions. As a result, over the past six months, the entire limit of 1,2 million bar / day that OPEC + imposed on itself was chosen by the United States, which does not enter OPEC +, occupying a vacant niche. And so that no one bothers them, they declared war on the Maduro regime in Venezuela and included full sanctions against Iran, banning the last eight countries, for which exceptions had been made, to buy oil from him. When China and India did not obey them, Trump began to pull troops into the region. And believe me, it is in his power to personally control tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz to Asia and Europe. And how it will have a beneficial effect on oil prices, you will see in the near future.