Haftar's second front: Turkish army may invade Libya

The war in Libya may blaze with renewed vigor. The precarious balance formed in the confrontation between the Government of National Accord (PNS) and the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Field Marshal Haftar, could be upset by a new powerful player. Turkey threatened to directly intervene and disperse the “illegitimate armed groups,” by which in Ankara they mean the army of Haftar. Will the entry of the Turkish army into the war prove fatal for the field marshal, who intends to "clear Tripoli of terrorists"?




After NATO aggression in 2011, the blooming Libya was turned into ruins, on the basis of which continuously emerged hostile city-states. The largest players are the PNS, led by Faiz Saraj, who controls Tripoli, and the LNA, led by Khalifa Haftar. The Sarajah government is officially recognized by the UN, but the Haftar’s army cannot be clearly called “illegitimate,” since it is subordinate to the Libyan Parliament.

There is a classic dual power with many motley gangs constantly fighting each other. In April of this year, the field marshal ordered his troops to attack the capital of the country in order to restore unity of command and territorial integrity. Tripoli was surrounded by LNA, Saraj fled, and victory seemed near. However, over the past three months, Haftar has not established control over the main city of Libya, and in some places his troops retreated from their occupied positions.

The situation is complicated by the active intervention of external forces in the internal affairs of this country. The PNS, recognized by the West, is actively supported by Qatar and Turkey, Haftara - Egypt and the UAE. Also, behind the field marshal, the Italians saw the shadow of French President Emmanuel Macron, who was allegedly trying to pry Rome out of his former colony with the wrong hands.

LNA is still standing, surrounding Tripoli. But now the balance of power can change for the worse for Haftar. Earlier in eastern Libya, some Turkish citizens who were suspected of “supporting terrorists,” that is, were detained. opponents of the LNA. There is nothing surprising in this, given what is happening in neighboring Syria in the Idlib de-escalation zone.

The official Ankara stood up for its citizens, those who forgot in Libya:

The detention of six Turkish citizens by the illegitimate paramilitary forces of Haftar in Libya is an act of banditry and piracy. We expect our citizens to be released immediately. Otherwise, Haftar’s forces will become legitimate goals.


The Field Marshal, for his part, ordered the sky to be closed from Turkish aviation and to guard the state’s sea borders from Turkish ships. On June 28, the LNA shot down the UAV of this country. Ankara promised the Libyans "the toughest rebuff." Given the capabilities of her army, this is not an empty threat. Turkish intervention could lead to a complete military defeat of the LNA.

Haftar did not shy away and declared "general mobilization". However, despite the courage of the commander in chief, his prospects for waging war on two fronts are extremely deplorable. The Turkish army alone is able to disperse its semi-partisan army. So the Libyan field marshal should “save face”, but slow down, given that Tripoli has a written warrant for his arrest.
Photos used: https://www.pronews.gr
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23 comments
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  1. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 2 July 2019 13: 31
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    Libya is an Arab country, and the Turks are very disliked there, of which the Turks are. With the advent of Turkish troops in Libya, the Civil War can develop into a war of liberation. And there will be more Arabs around Libya than Turks. The situation is similar to the Russian one at the beginning of the 20th century. But who is Lenin to whom, and who are the Whites and the Entente?
  2. Pishenkov Offline
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 July 2019 14: 22
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    ... we would have to learn from the Turks to intercede for our citizens, even somewhere "really forgot what"
    And especially, if they forgot this "damn what" in a country very rich in the highest quality oil, in the closest proximity to the consumer market - Europe ... The Turks are not i-dots, they’ll not get there for a couple of people, if suddenly it’s true they will climb, moreover, these people can really be pure terrorists, but the reason is beautiful ...
  3. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 2 July 2019 17: 16
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    Turkey has already meddled with the Arabs and lost some of the best Leopard-2 tanks in its army, along with the crews ... The main tanks of the Turkish army are the Leopard-1 and M-60, and they will suffer huge losses ...
    1. Pishenkov Offline
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 July 2019 20: 09
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      The main tanks of the Turkish army are Leopard-1 and M-60, and they will suffer huge losses ...

      To do this, the Turks there must confront a real army, such as the Egyptian, or a large number of scumbags and suicide bombers, such as ISIS in its prime. Haftar has neither the first nor the second. And while there are a couple of tanks on the go + carts with machine guns and RPGs. And the fact that they have adequate modern infantry anti-tank weapons is also unlikely so far. And if they deliver it, you still need to learn how to use them ... or you need to supply weapons together with the staff ... If the Turks really want to stir up there, then without outside help Haftar, at best, will roll somewhere into the desert ...
      The only way to avoid the pogrom is to inflict heavy damage on the Turks during landing, from the sea or air, since the Turks have no other option to get to Libya. But here, apparently, help will also be needed ...
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 2 July 2019 20: 31
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        For the guaranteed destruction of Leopard-1, or M-60, nothing but RPG-7, or any antediluvian ATGMs are needed ... Well, let’s wait .. we'll see ..
        1. Pishenkov Offline
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 2 July 2019 22: 27
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          Yes, but for such a guaranteed destruction, the tank still needs to be approached for a shot. But the Turks have good combat experience, and just wars with such barmales with RPGs and others like them - Kurds, other groups in Syria, etc., and probably know how to prevent them from coming up with this very shot ... Turkey has not only the biggest army in NATO after the United States, but also the most combat-ready. And it is unlikely that any Arab regular army in general can be compared with the Turks, there is nothing to say about Haftar. Well ... "wait and see" wink
          1. Sapsan136 Offline
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 00: 33
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            Nevertheless, the Turkish army no more than six months ago, lost in battle with these same Arabs some of the best Leopards-2 in their army, along with the crews. Losses modernized by Israel M-60, which are in service with Turkey were also sensitive.
            1. Pishenkov Offline
              Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 10: 27
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              Well, in war there is no loss. And how many tanks do they have in total? If I’m not mistaken, today there are about 3 thousand tanks in the Turkish army, about 10 thousand armored personnel carriers and armored personnel carriers of various types. Even with possible losses, it is unlikely that Mr. Haftar (or any other Arabs) has a chance in the event of a real war with the Turks, and not anti-Barmale actions on the ground.
              But, as I said, these tanks and infantry fighting vehicles must also be delivered to Libya, but the landing ships capable of doing this across the Mediterranean Sea, the Turks now have only 4 or 5. There are a lot of different ones, but the rest is like that, on the Greek islands attack or to Georgia maximum, not seaworthy.
              So if anything, the Turks can be eliminated or inflicted serious losses in order to change their minds, only at the moment of landing. Then it will be too late.
              1. Sapsan136 Offline
                Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 11: 01
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                Tanks existing on paper and tanks in combat units are different numbers. The lion's share of these tanks is not on the move, in reserve. In addition, significant losses can cool hotheads in Ankara and cause anti-war protests of the population.
                1. Pishenkov Offline
                  Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 11: 04
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                  I agree. Therefore, I say that to inflict such losses, the most convenient moment is landing. And the tanks in reserve are standing there to get them out of it, if necessary.
                  1. Sapsan136 Offline
                    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 11: 07
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                    This is how to say it. Turkish aviation will quickly cover the coast of the defenders, but during the storming of the cities, the Turkish army will wash themselves with their blood, stronger than the US army washed in Fallujah
                    1. Pishenkov Offline
                      Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 11: 15
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                      ... now I really feel like a "couch general" laughing
                      Initially, the amphibious landing operation is hardly meant due to the lack of a large amount of BDK for the Turks. If you theoretically imagine an invasion, the first wave should come from the air, but to bring down a transport carrier on approaching from MANPADS is quite possible, you don’t need any special forces or knowledge, this weapon is affordable, and the effect (loss) will immediately be high. So the Turks will have time to ponder before the battle for the city. And if you don’t think it all the same, then the Libyan kayuk ...
                      1. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 11: 18
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                        If Turkey goes by the wall, ignoring the losses, then it can bend not only Libya, but ... wait and see ...
                      2. Pishenkov Offline
                        Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 11: 27
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                        So we will also go to Turkey on the Red Sea ... wink
                      3. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 11: 32
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                        Is not a fact. Even the United States and the British Empire, in its best years, could not stay in Iraq and Afghanistan for as long and on a large scale as they wanted. Turks will be able to create several forts, but they will become a constantly bleeding wound. About as shown in the French film Legionnaire ... There is a documentary about what is happening with the US Army in Afghanistan - the Taliban, Night of the Long Knives.
                      4. Pishenkov Offline
                        Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 11: 55
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                        Firstly, it is not necessary to compare Sev. Africa and Afghanistan. In the same Egypt, just the British colonialists oh how long they sat. Secondly, the Turks are not pampered “Westerners,” they will not fight or hold territory with Western methods — they will knock everyone out and that's it. And thirdly, it's all so fantastic that I am definitely finishing. Thanks for the discussion, but we have gone too far. My sofa is not so general laughing
                      5. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 12: 59
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                        Turkey has been fighting the Kurds for many years and so far no victory has been seen, so everything is relative
                      6. Pishenkov Offline
                        Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 13: 05
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                        This is not a war in the classical sense, but something like a long ATO. And the results are therefore the same. Kurds are not a state, but ethnic terrorist-guerrilla groups that move through the territory of 4 sometimes or more states of the region. This is not an army that can be destroyed, defeated or forced to surrender. This issue cannot be resolved by military means, it is only possible to "keep within certain limits" no more. Especially when these same Kurds are also in their interests supported by various regional and transcendental players ...
                      7. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 13: 09
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                        In Libya, opponents of the Turkish army will also be supported by foreign ill-wishers of Turkey and the partisan war has not been canceled, and it is hardly possible to destroy the entire population in Libya today, as well as the Kurds, who can be defeated only by cutting one-off, or almost one-by-one
                      8. Pishenkov Offline
                        Pishenkov (Alexey) 3 July 2019 13: 13
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                        Absolutely, and these same "ill-wishers" are their NATO allies, that is, all this is very good.
                        In Libya, guerrilla warfare is difficult because of the specific landscape, and the population itself is fragmented and not uniform, they have no idea in common.
                        With the Kurds, yes, that’s how it will help for a while, but this is genocide. And, as practice shows, such attempts did not lead anywhere in the long run - examples of genocide of the same Armenians by the Turks, the Holocaust of Jews in Europe, etc.
                      9. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 July 2019 21: 00
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                        Unfortunately, the conflict between NATO Greece and NATO Turkey did not affect NATO, alas ... But the scandal in the (noble) family is in our hands, here you are right. As for the genocide, this is the only way to defeat some people for a while, or completely. In Libya, everything against everyone until the strangers came. Everyone will be beaten by strangers ...- Their dogs are fighting, a stranger do not bother ... In Iraq, too, a plain, and there are partisans ...
  4. Hwam Offline
    Hwam (Anton) 3 July 2019 12: 31
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    Well, they will be landing with air and sea cover.
  • gorbunov.vladisl (Vlad Dudnik) 3 July 2019 16: 07
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    Despite the large territory, the population of Libya is half that of Syria. If desired, Turkey will swallow Libya and not choke.
    The only thing that can prevent this is the support of Haftar from the current authorities of Egypt.
    Egypt alone has 3700 tanks. Of these, 1100 are "Abrams." About 1500 Soviet different models. Among which there are three dozen T-80Us. There are plans to purchase 400 T-90.
    And given that the Russian leadership also favors Haftar, then everything necessary will be delivered very quickly through Egypt. That's why Haftar behaves so confidently.