Bagdasarov assessed the consequences of Iran’s destruction of a US drone

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In the conditions of heated relations between Washington and Tehran, the message about Iran’s destruction of an American drone in its airspace became a topic of discussion in the expert community.



Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, political analyst Semyon Baghdasarov in his comment for the publication "Sight" expressed the opinion that even if the American UAV was really shot down, then this incident is unlikely to be the reason for the start of a full-blown conflict between the United States and Iran.

In his forecast, he relies on the fact that in 2003, the Americans, together with the Allies, gathered more than half a million soldiers to invade Iraq.

Now, for the war with Iran, much more manpower will be needed, which the Pentagon does not currently have. Baghdasarov also notes that Iran, among other things, has a large number of weapons, including missile weapons.

In his opinion, Iran could completely bring down an American drone, but in order to confirm its statement, the Iranian military should show at least some evidence. For example, debris.

Summarizing the above, the expert concludes that the confrontation in the Middle East can go into the "hot phase" only if the military personnel of one of the parties die.
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  1. steelmaker
    steelmaker
    +3
    20 June 2019 15: 29
    At the same time, other experts say that the United States does not know how to dispose of 3-5 thousand Tomahawks, because the shelf life is at the limit. The Syrians, however, handed over to Russia not broken? And why bring troops - they will bomb everything that is possible in the trash. Iran has no nuclear weapons!
    1. gorbunov.vladisl
      gorbunov.vladisl
      +6
      20 June 2019 17: 15
      ... the US does not know how to dispose of 3-5 thousand.

      A total of 7302 tomahawks were produced. The 2000th missile was launched in 2011 with the destroyer USS Barry (DDG-52) during Operation Odyssey Dawn in Libya, and the same year, the five hundredth test launch of this missile system was carried out during the operation period. That is, from 7302 minus 2500, no longer 5 thousand. Of the remaining, most are fresh and do not require immediate disposal.

      ... because the shelf life is at the limit. The Syrians, however, handed over to Russia not broken?

      The rocket did not explode, not because the shelf life had expired. In fact, the rocket is very good .... against banana countries. And in this case, I found a braid (rocket) on a stone (Russian electronic warfare systems).

      ... bomb everything in the trash.

      Despite all the above, such a scenario is quite possible.
      And there is only one condition under which this scenario is not possible. And this is if Russia stands on the side of Iran.
      1. Robert Robertovich
        Robert Robertovich
        +1
        23 June 2019 16: 07
        The system that shot down the drone is a copy of our CUB - BEECH. And these complexes were created with the goal of mass repelling a missile attack like an ax. And a downed drone, from the ax, in fact, is no different. So for the United States, everything can be much worse than in Syria, even without our electronic warfare, which Iran has. Have you forgotten how they SAD their UAVs? And if you take into account the slides on which the Iranians showed the UAV route, then Iran’s control of the air is notable.
        Yes, I agree that the number of electronic warfare and these complexes is unknown to us, maybe there are few of them. But in general, something like that, sadly everything for the hegemos can come out, has every chance to crap in public.
        1. gorbunov.vladisl
          gorbunov.vladisl
          +3
          24 June 2019 06: 10
          The system that shot down the drone, a copy of our cube - beech. And these complexes were created with the goal of mass repelling a missile attack like an ax.

          I would also like Iran to be strong and powerful militarily. However, the facts are stubborn things and it is difficult to challenge them without any weighty arguments.
          So here are the facts.
          Almost all of Iran’s weapons are old. Good, quality, but old. Four S-300 divisions, they won’t cover the whole country.
          For example. The same cube. Beautiful air defense complex. In Serbia, there are already 77 of them. However, this did not prevent NATO from delivering very painful attacks on what was then Yugoslavia. And most likely, the air defense calculations of Yugoslavia were better prepared.
          Yes, they (Iran) will probably shoot something down. After all, the Yugoslavs were shooting down. And even one "invisible" (F-117) was shot down.
          But how did this affect the overall result? No way. The infrastructure and industry of Yugoslavia suffered tremendous damage.
          Without urgent and massive procurement of new, modern air defense and electronic warfare systems (and preferably Russian-made), Iran will not be able to effectively defend itself against air strikes. Shooting down one UAV or repelling an attack of several hundred "axes" is not the same thing.
  2. philippino lippi
    philippino lippi
    +2
    21 June 2019 12: 09
    We need to TOGETHER, China, Russia and Iran, to deliver a coordinated, crushing blow to the USA! ----------- We must destroy the camp that does not allow the whole world to live peacefully (except for the NATO bloc)!
  3. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha
    +1
    21 June 2019 16: 43
    No, nevertheless, the Merikans can simply bomb Iran, and not fight with manpower. And this will be in the hands of Israel, which can also join the bombing of Iran.