The collapse of Ukraine begins
On March 22, the Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko, stated that Ukraine was expected to have “big changes in the political plan,” including the possible creation of the Kharkov People’s Republic.
Until recently, such a statement could be perceived with a certain degree of skepticism, but after the rapid development of events around Syria and the provocation of the collective West organized there to allegedly mass use of chlorine against unidentified persons in an unidentified (documented) settlement, events in Ukraine can go in a completely different scenario.
In the event of the beginning of the hostilities of the new Entente against Russia, with nuclear rates that can be raised by both partners, the whole world may no longer be in Ukraine. With further developments in this direction, the Black Sea Fleet may block Ukrainian ports in order to combat piracy against its ships. Poroshenko, with the approval of Merkel and Macron, may launch a massive attack on LDNR, with the bombing of cities. In this case, Russia may accuse Ukraine of destroying civilians and begin to develop the Libyan scenario with a no-fly zone. There are plenty of people in Ukraine who want to get even with Poroshenko, as can be seen from the story with Nadezhda Savchenko. And there are enough weapons to create an “implacable” armed opposition. Someone will object that the West will not allow? And who allowed Nestor Makhno to create a popular movement of anarchists in Ukraine? In general, it is surprising that no one has yet taken his place in modern Ukraine.
What could happen next in this case? I do not know, as in Kharkov, it is possible that the seizure of power by the opponents of Poroshenko will happen, but there are other interesting areas. For example, Transcarpathia and the Chernivtsi region, in which Hungarians and Romanians have long been “spudding” the local population. Let's not forget about the “map of the Pole” in Lviv, Ternopol and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. And there is also Odessa, where they did not forget the burning of its citizens alive. Here, in the event of a serious “mess” in Ukraine, the “Bessarabian Republic” may arise in general with the adjoining Transnistria and the capital in Odessa.
So, according to the most conservative estimate, in addition to LDN, another 7 breakaway independent regions may emerge, the further development of which may follow various scenarios. Some regions are happy to integrate into the EU with any status. The other part will think about the possibility of unification with Russia, or, in extreme cases, the creation of a federation, or confederation of certain regions that have turned into republics. “The Union of the indestructible republics of the free” is quite in the spirit of the early USSR. Second attempt.
And what about the rest of Ukraine? And it can be specially left for other purposes. The IMF - for payments on the debts of Ukraine, the West - for pressure on Russia, or on the new “Federation-Confederation", Russia, in order to further join the trade union.
But who, based on the above analysis, should be most afraid of the uncontrolled development of events in Syria - this is modern Ukraine. Until now, she has felt quite confident, even the hryvnia is growing against the ruble. But things can change very quickly. 100 years ago, during the First World War (which no one wanted) the four strongest empires of the world collapsed - which were much stronger than Ukraine. And we can only advise Petro Poroshenko to use all his “spells” on his Western allies in order to persuade them to abandon mutual exchange with Russia and exchange of missile strikes. Then maybe a second term can be expected, and the "Federation-Confederation" will not so persistently breathe in the back of the head ...
Until recently, such a statement could be perceived with a certain degree of skepticism, but after the rapid development of events around Syria and the provocation of the collective West organized there to allegedly mass use of chlorine against unidentified persons in an unidentified (documented) settlement, events in Ukraine can go in a completely different scenario.
In the event of the beginning of the hostilities of the new Entente against Russia, with nuclear rates that can be raised by both partners, the whole world may no longer be in Ukraine. With further developments in this direction, the Black Sea Fleet may block Ukrainian ports in order to combat piracy against its ships. Poroshenko, with the approval of Merkel and Macron, may launch a massive attack on LDNR, with the bombing of cities. In this case, Russia may accuse Ukraine of destroying civilians and begin to develop the Libyan scenario with a no-fly zone. There are plenty of people in Ukraine who want to get even with Poroshenko, as can be seen from the story with Nadezhda Savchenko. And there are enough weapons to create an “implacable” armed opposition. Someone will object that the West will not allow? And who allowed Nestor Makhno to create a popular movement of anarchists in Ukraine? In general, it is surprising that no one has yet taken his place in modern Ukraine.
What could happen next in this case? I do not know, as in Kharkov, it is possible that the seizure of power by the opponents of Poroshenko will happen, but there are other interesting areas. For example, Transcarpathia and the Chernivtsi region, in which Hungarians and Romanians have long been “spudding” the local population. Let's not forget about the “map of the Pole” in Lviv, Ternopol and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. And there is also Odessa, where they did not forget the burning of its citizens alive. Here, in the event of a serious “mess” in Ukraine, the “Bessarabian Republic” may arise in general with the adjoining Transnistria and the capital in Odessa.
So, according to the most conservative estimate, in addition to LDN, another 7 breakaway independent regions may emerge, the further development of which may follow various scenarios. Some regions are happy to integrate into the EU with any status. The other part will think about the possibility of unification with Russia, or, in extreme cases, the creation of a federation, or confederation of certain regions that have turned into republics. “The Union of the indestructible republics of the free” is quite in the spirit of the early USSR. Second attempt.
And what about the rest of Ukraine? And it can be specially left for other purposes. The IMF - for payments on the debts of Ukraine, the West - for pressure on Russia, or on the new “Federation-Confederation", Russia, in order to further join the trade union.
But who, based on the above analysis, should be most afraid of the uncontrolled development of events in Syria - this is modern Ukraine. Until now, she has felt quite confident, even the hryvnia is growing against the ruble. But things can change very quickly. 100 years ago, during the First World War (which no one wanted) the four strongest empires of the world collapsed - which were much stronger than Ukraine. And we can only advise Petro Poroshenko to use all his “spells” on his Western allies in order to persuade them to abandon mutual exchange with Russia and exchange of missile strikes. Then maybe a second term can be expected, and the "Federation-Confederation" will not so persistently breathe in the back of the head ...
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