Russian Trump: Moscow's response to sanctions could stun the West
Is war foreseen?
Under such an alarmist headline, on April 9, 1875, the Berlin newspaper Post, close to the chancellor of the German Empire, Otto von Bismarck, published an article about the possibility of war between Germany and France. The diplomatic crisis, in the deployment of which a certain role was played by the article by Bismarck's “Post”, went down in history under the name of “War Alarm” of 1875.
On April 9, 2018, the Russian media dubbed another “Black Monday”. Recall that we are talking about an unprecedented drop in the quotes of a number of Russian “blue chips” traded in the USA and a sharp drop in the ruble against the dollar and the euro as a result of the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. Russian observers make a disappointing conclusion about the beginning economic the US war against Russia, and although this is not pronounced explicitly, it is quite obvious that the outcome of the elections in Russia on March 18, 2018 made the White House anti-Russian course a long-term phenomenon.
Russia, already classified as a “revisionist power," a dialogue with which is not foreseen in any circumstances, according to updated American key strategic documents (see, for example, National Security Strategy of The United States of America Dec. 2017, or Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America), it seems, de facto becomes one of the "rogue countries" in the American political terminology. The unprecedented political, diplomatic and economic pressure that the Russian Federation is undergoing on the part of the United States and a number of European countries seems to be a payment for the deep integration of the Kremlin into the world community after August 1991.
Note that the current crisis in relations between the West and Russia, or Russia and the West, is developing within the framework of a standard template that does not promise any benefits to the Russian side. The parties exchange hints of military or paramilitary threats, while Russia responds to Washington’s economic pressure with arguments about state support for sanctioned businesses, citing, for example, the need to preserve jobs provided by shaky industry monsters. Such reactive behavior does not bode well for Russia except a growing burden on the economy, and, in fact, a smooth deterioration in the life of the population in the country.
At the same time, in fact, Russia has enough options for equal answers to the actions of the USA and Western Europe. None of these answers can be called friendly, or not critically tested by Russian opponents, but good news lies in the fact that there is no military solution among these possible answers, and it is unproductive for both Russia and the West.
We list some of the possibilities of adequate Russian counteraction in the free order:
Of course, the implementation of one or more of these options will cause certain, but not insoluble organizational and economic difficulties in Russia. What consequences these measures will lead in the countries initiating political and economic pressure on the Russian Federation are left to judge the imagination of the reader.
Under such an alarmist headline, on April 9, 1875, the Berlin newspaper Post, close to the chancellor of the German Empire, Otto von Bismarck, published an article about the possibility of war between Germany and France. The diplomatic crisis, in the deployment of which a certain role was played by the article by Bismarck's “Post”, went down in history under the name of “War Alarm” of 1875.
On April 9, 2018, the Russian media dubbed another “Black Monday”. Recall that we are talking about an unprecedented drop in the quotes of a number of Russian “blue chips” traded in the USA and a sharp drop in the ruble against the dollar and the euro as a result of the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. Russian observers make a disappointing conclusion about the beginning economic the US war against Russia, and although this is not pronounced explicitly, it is quite obvious that the outcome of the elections in Russia on March 18, 2018 made the White House anti-Russian course a long-term phenomenon.
Russia, already classified as a “revisionist power," a dialogue with which is not foreseen in any circumstances, according to updated American key strategic documents (see, for example, National Security Strategy of The United States of America Dec. 2017, or Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of The United States of America), it seems, de facto becomes one of the "rogue countries" in the American political terminology. The unprecedented political, diplomatic and economic pressure that the Russian Federation is undergoing on the part of the United States and a number of European countries seems to be a payment for the deep integration of the Kremlin into the world community after August 1991.
Note that the current crisis in relations between the West and Russia, or Russia and the West, is developing within the framework of a standard template that does not promise any benefits to the Russian side. The parties exchange hints of military or paramilitary threats, while Russia responds to Washington’s economic pressure with arguments about state support for sanctioned businesses, citing, for example, the need to preserve jobs provided by shaky industry monsters. Such reactive behavior does not bode well for Russia except a growing burden on the economy, and, in fact, a smooth deterioration in the life of the population in the country.
At the same time, in fact, Russia has enough options for equal answers to the actions of the USA and Western Europe. None of these answers can be called friendly, or not critically tested by Russian opponents, but good news lies in the fact that there is no military solution among these possible answers, and it is unproductive for both Russia and the West.
We list some of the possibilities of adequate Russian counteraction in the free order:
- a moratorium on the supply of Russian gas outside the Russian territory or to consumers in certain states;
- a moratorium or a significant reduction in the supply of Russian hydrocarbons abroad;
- movement towards the creation of a joint monetary unit and economic zone with the People's Republic of China;
- moratorium on handling of hard currency in the Russian Federation;
- seizure of property of a number of foreign corporations in Russia;
- selective or complete moratorium on servicing obligations on the state debt of Russia to organizations of a certain foreign affiliation;
- moratorium on visits by Russian citizens for any purpose of certain foreign countries.
Of course, the implementation of one or more of these options will cause certain, but not insoluble organizational and economic difficulties in Russia. What consequences these measures will lead in the countries initiating political and economic pressure on the Russian Federation are left to judge the imagination of the reader.
- Nikolay Kuzyaev
- www.utro.ru
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