War scenario: can China take Taiwan by force?

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As you know, China has its own territorial problems. After the Kremlin returned Crimea and Sevastopol in 2014, there were fears that Beijing might try to solve the "Taiwan issue" by force. The bad thoughts in Taipei and Washington are prompted by the constant growth of the PLA’s combat capabilities. And Pentagon analysts came to the conclusion that the PRC is preparing to solve the “two Chinas” problem by landing a sea landing.





Beijing’s ideal picture of a military invasion of Taiwan is described in Western author Jen Easton's book, The Chinese Threat of Invasion: Defending Taiwan and the American Strategy in Asia. At the first stage, Chinese short-range ballistic missiles will hit key infrastructure objects: airfields, transport hubs, government buildings, etc. At the same time, the "sleeping agents" and the PLA special forces will hunt for representatives of the local authorities, the military leadership and the business elite. The goal of this phase is to plunge Taiwan into a state of uncontrollable chaos.

In the second stage, the largest amphibious assault in world history will occur. PLA will need to transport at least a million soldiers and a large number equipment and ammunition, which will require tens of thousands of ships, for which the merchant fleet of China will be reserved. Covering the landing will be volleys of missiles and air strikes of mainland China. After gaining dominance in the air, the PLA will destroy the regime’s defenders in a week, and in two will take the island under full control, after which it will establish martial law on it.

Pentagon analysts note the preparation of the Chinese army and navy for such a possible operation: the number of air assault brigades, army aviation, the airborne forces have been reformed, new airborne units have been created. Airborne brigades, a special operations brigade, an aviation brigade and an auxiliary brigade appeared as part of the PLA airborne forces, exercises are being carried out with the transfer of forces over long distances.

The PLA increased the number of surface ships and submarines, the number and combat effectiveness of the marine corps. Also, special forces of logistical and technical support were created in the PRC, which is necessary for a large-scale military operation. The Chinese military is preparing to conduct and repel cyber attacks and the information war. However, the Pentagon also notes some shortcomings in the military power that Beijing possesses. According to American experts, the Chinese marines are not well equipped, and the fleet does not have the necessary number of landing forces for such an operation.

The PLA will be defeated, writes Ian Easton in his book. He indicates that such large-scale military preparations will be noticeable 1-2 months before the first shot, so the effect of surprise cannot be achieved. Taipei in advance will arrest all suspicious persons, mobilize the army, reservists, withdraw the fleet from the parking lots, and mine the sea approaches.

All the beaches on which the landing can take place are prepared in advance for this: tunnels have already been dug there, traps are set up, all approaches will be mined. In the cities, each building will be turned into a redoubt, in the jungle, Taiwanese special forces who are well acquainted with the area will land and begin sabotage operations. As a result, the pathos naval assault can turn into a real bloodbath for the Chinese from the mainland.

A power option is also considered by the Russian military lieutenant general Valery Zaparenko:

To capture an island such as Taiwan, at least several airborne divisions and brigades must be included in the airborne assault, and at least 5-7 combined arms divisions, as well as formations and units of the marine corps, should be included in the airborne assault.


And this is just to capture the sea beaches with the organization of advanced bridgeheads on them. And in order to subjugate the whole island, you will need to deploy an additional several hundred thousand troops with equipment and ammunition. This requires a huge amount of amphibious assault forces and the complete domination of the PLA at sea and in the air. The big question is whether the United States and its allies will calmly look at this operation without interfering.

Most likely, Beijing will solve the problem of Taiwan political methods, and he needed the ability to quickly drop an airborne division for simpler purposes.
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4 comments
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  1. 0
    7 May 2019 16: 09
    But does China really need it? The theme of Taiwan is to maintain the tone of its population, army and the international community.
  2. DPN
    0
    9 May 2019 13: 45
    If such a goal is set - freely, do not even doubt it. There is strength, it seems more crazy than ours, Russia.
    1. 0
      12 May 2019 20: 01
      Do not confuse yourself and Russia.
  3. +1
    12 May 2019 20: 01
    I suppose that China will not try to seize Taiwan by force until Taiwan is ready to fall into the hands of China. To illustrate - the history of Hong Kong and Macau. The Chinese know how to wait, which they will do.