Denial of the dollar: Russia will have to wait 10 years
Western sanctions forced the Russian leadership to reduce the amount of international payments in dollars, which are traditionally carried out in this currency. For the period from 2013 to 2018, the share of “American” decreased by 12,6%. In exchange for foreign trade, the share of the euro increased to an impressive 26,6%, and our ruble - to 14%. Is it possible to consider that “cut paper of green color” will soon be completely withdrawn from circulation? Or did the dollar just “go into the shadows”, waiting in the wings?
If you look at the situation as a whole, it will be too early to talk about any qualitative change. "American" still holds more than half of all foreign trade calculations in Russia, accounting for 56,1%. The euro holds an honorable second place with 21,9%, while the domestic currency has grown to 20%. The yuan, about which so much has been said as an alternative to the dollar, has hidden in statistics among "other currencies." Their total share in operations does not exceed 2,4%.
So why is the dollar gradually losing ground as a means of settlement in our country? Russian expert Timur Nigmatullin explains:
Indeed, frightened by American sanctions, the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sharply reduced the share of the dollar in its international reserves and increased assets denominated in euros and yuan.
Despite anti-Russian sanctions and counter-sanctions, trade between the European Union as a whole and our country has grown, amounting to 254 billion euros last year. The EU is the main trading partner of the Russian Federation, and both parties are interested in using the euro instead of the dollar. The European Commission even sounded an seditious offer to pay for oil and gas not in American, but in European currency. However, such a transition will not be easy, since oil and gas as a commodity is traditionally sold in US dollars.
The yuan has been graciously included by the IMF in the list of world reserve currencies. He has certain prospects in the future to compete with the dollar, since this currency is actually provided with one and a half billion working Chinese. But if you take the jokes aside, then the Chinese currency scares away many due to tight regulation economics PRC. So, a year ago, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lost about 10 billion dollars due to the devaluation of the renminbi carried out by Beijing after it invested $ 67 billion in Chinese currency.
The share of settlements in RMB in transactions between the PRC and the Russian Federation has grown by 8,8 times in recent years, but remains extremely small against other currencies.
The volume of foreign trade settlements in our national currency has also grown. It is mainly used in the space of the Eurasian Economic Union, primarily in trade with Belarus. But in relations with China, settlements in rubles for export operations increased 5,5 times.
So, it turns out, it remains to wait a little more, and the dollar will completely disappear from the Russian turnover? Russian financial expert Tamara Kasyanova explains:
Indeed, the dollar is so firmly in circulation that double conversion of other currencies may be unprofitable. Note that, despite the “dedollarization” of the Russian economy, the share of the dollar in the total money supply, according to some estimates, may be half, or even more, of which we told earlier. Domestic residents are in no hurry to get rid of the "American", believing that in US dollars it will be safer for them to "sit out" the upcoming financial disasters, which are more and more talked about.
The American currency is "groaning", it is a bit crowded, but in general it is not going to give up its positions yet. Real “dedollarization” can take a very long period of time.
If you look at the situation as a whole, it will be too early to talk about any qualitative change. "American" still holds more than half of all foreign trade calculations in Russia, accounting for 56,1%. The euro holds an honorable second place with 21,9%, while the domestic currency has grown to 20%. The yuan, about which so much has been said as an alternative to the dollar, has hidden in statistics among "other currencies." Their total share in operations does not exceed 2,4%.
So why is the dollar gradually losing ground as a means of settlement in our country? Russian expert Timur Nigmatullin explains:
The decrease in settlements in dollars is a consequence of two factors: a decrease in prices for oil denominated in US dollars compared to 2013 levels and sanctions.
Indeed, frightened by American sanctions, the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation sharply reduced the share of the dollar in its international reserves and increased assets denominated in euros and yuan.
Euro
Despite anti-Russian sanctions and counter-sanctions, trade between the European Union as a whole and our country has grown, amounting to 254 billion euros last year. The EU is the main trading partner of the Russian Federation, and both parties are interested in using the euro instead of the dollar. The European Commission even sounded an seditious offer to pay for oil and gas not in American, but in European currency. However, such a transition will not be easy, since oil and gas as a commodity is traditionally sold in US dollars.
Yuan
The yuan has been graciously included by the IMF in the list of world reserve currencies. He has certain prospects in the future to compete with the dollar, since this currency is actually provided with one and a half billion working Chinese. But if you take the jokes aside, then the Chinese currency scares away many due to tight regulation economics PRC. So, a year ago, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lost about 10 billion dollars due to the devaluation of the renminbi carried out by Beijing after it invested $ 67 billion in Chinese currency.
The share of settlements in RMB in transactions between the PRC and the Russian Federation has grown by 8,8 times in recent years, but remains extremely small against other currencies.
Ruble
The volume of foreign trade settlements in our national currency has also grown. It is mainly used in the space of the Eurasian Economic Union, primarily in trade with Belarus. But in relations with China, settlements in rubles for export operations increased 5,5 times.
So, it turns out, it remains to wait a little more, and the dollar will completely disappear from the Russian turnover? Russian financial expert Tamara Kasyanova explains:
Get rid of the dollar completely does not work, and no one poses such tasks. There is a task to significantly reduce dependence on it, this will take at least 10 years, subject to the growth of the Russian economy and trade in particular, as well as appropriate steps in this direction.
Indeed, the dollar is so firmly in circulation that double conversion of other currencies may be unprofitable. Note that, despite the “dedollarization” of the Russian economy, the share of the dollar in the total money supply, according to some estimates, may be half, or even more, of which we told earlier. Domestic residents are in no hurry to get rid of the "American", believing that in US dollars it will be safer for them to "sit out" the upcoming financial disasters, which are more and more talked about.
The American currency is "groaning", it is a bit crowded, but in general it is not going to give up its positions yet. Real “dedollarization” can take a very long period of time.
- Sergey Marzhetsky
- http://agenda-u.org
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