Laughs the one who shoots last
On April 18, 2019, the regular list of Ukrainian goods prohibited for import into the Russian Federation, as well as a similar list of Russian goods prohibited for delivery to Ukraine, was published on the website of the Russian government. Well, a ban and a ban, say the Russian citizen, a ban more, a ban less, how many of them have already been during this time? And he will be right. But the whole trick is in the details! And the details are such that if everything goes according to the plan of Moscow, then for some Ukrainian oligarchs, and on the tangent through them and the entire Kiev oligarchic regime, who has been drinking blood from the Ukrainian people for 28 years, kirdyk will come in the next year and a half, and complete and final. Why haven’t done so until now, I have a big question ?! But this question, as they say, is not for me, we will leave unanswered, but we will consider in detail what the Kremlin’s treacherous plan consists of.
According to this decree, import from Ukraine into the Russian Federation of pipes made of ferrous metals (including oil and gas pipelines), pipe layers with a carrying capacity of less than 90 tons, some models of bulldozers, single-bucket loaders, reapers and spare parts for them, as well as long the list of goods of Ukrainian light industry, starting with shoes, suits and dresses, and ending with socks, stockings and lace panties. In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers’s decree introduces a ban on supplies of Russian oil, oil products, as well as coal and other coal products to Ukraine (the ban applies to briquettes, pellets and similar types of hard fuel from hard coal, lignite or lignite, agglomerated or non-agglomerated, other than jet, coke or semi-coke from coal, lignite or peat, agglomerated or non-agglomerated, as well as retort coal). Starting June 1, all such deliveries will now be carried out only with the separate permissions of the RF Ministry of Economic Development. Remember this detail!
It seems to be nonsense, you say, but this is how to look. The fact is that Ukraine is critically dependent, no, not on the supply of Russian oil, as many have already thought, (it just does not buy it in the Russian Federation, satisfying the needs of the only remaining Kremenchug refinery with Azerbaijani oil), but on supplies petroleum products - gasolines, solariums and LPG (liquefied petroleum gases - propane-butanes, etc.), which she buys in Belarus (40,4%), Russia (36,7%) and Lithuania (9,5%). Those. only 13,4% of its fuel needs are met by Ukraine on its own, and 86,6% have to be purchased abroad. And if it can still be agreed with Lithuania, then it is unlikely with Belarus. And not because the Old Man does not want to. And because the Kremlin and Old Man blocked the oxygen, moreover, from the end of last year. I quote further TASS:
From November 2018 until the end of 2019, Russia will not supply gas, diesel and fuel oil to Belarus, according to the terms of the previously signed indicative balance for the supply of petroleum products until the end of 2019. This was reported to journalists by the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak. “As for gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil - zero indicators are provided for in the indicative balance,” he said. An official representative of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said earlier that the new agreements between Russia and Belarus exclude the possibility of "gray" schemes in the supply of petroleum products within the framework of a union state, because of which the Russian budget lost revenue. At the same time, a TASS source explained that Belarus had previously re-exported oil products received from Russia, and now, under the terms of the agreements, it does not have such an opportunity.
Reuters previously, citing sources in the government of the Russian Federation, reported that Russia would not supply liquefied petroleum gas to Belarus (LPG, not to be confused with LNG - liquefied natural gas). Export from Russia remains only for those products that Belarus itself cannot produce - oil, natural gas, gas condensate, a wide fraction of light hydrocarbons, as well as a number of petroleum products for petrochemicals. As a result, according to the head of the tax and customs department policy The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Sazanov, the amount of duty-free supplies of Russian light petroleum products to Belarus may be reduced by more than 6 times - from 2 million to 100-300 thousand tons per year, and the supply of dark petroleum products generally cease. It is unlikely that in this situation Belarus will supply fuel to Ukraine at the expense of its own needs.
To make you understand what amounts are involved, I’ll give you that only in 2018 Ukraine bought a total of about 10 million tons of gasoline, liquefied gas and diesel fuel for a total of $ 5 billion. At the same time, while maintaining the volume of purchases of gasoline and solariums, the share of LPG increases. Only in the period 2014-2018, the consumption of "propane-butane" in Ukraine doubled and reached 1,7-1,8 million tons, with only 450 thousand tons of gas produced domestically, and more than 1,3 million tons in In 2018, she was forced to import.
And if both Belarus and the Russian Federation say no to her, then even despite the prices, Ukraine will be logistically unable to compensate for this loss. The fact is that the diesel went to her from the Russian Federation through the pipe, which reduced its cost and unloaded railway traffic. Now imagine that such a volume will go by sea, even if Odessa terminals can swallow it, Ukrzaliznytsia, which does not have time to service all of its grain traders, suppliers of iron ore raw materials and power engineers, cannot take it out. What should the new Ukrainian president do in this situation, keep proud silence and loyalty to Washington, or bow to Moscow? The question is open. Think ... those, Vladimir Alexandrovich! Because further there will be a collapse. Ukrnaft has already begun to sound the alarm: “The cessation of such supplies is becoming a reality, this can really lead to a collapse not only in the fuel market, but also in the Ukrainian the economy and undermine the country's national security, ”they write in a panic. And for some reason I believe them.
And I haven't said anything about coal yet. Strange, but practically no one paid attention to the fact that coal was also included in the sanctions list of Russia. And this is 12,4 million tons of fuel, on the availability of which not only Ukrainian metallurgy, but also the energy sector depend today. Because during the reign of the evil Confectioner, through his efforts and the efforts of his accomplice Rinat Akhmetov, half of the capacities of Ukrainian thermal power plants were transferred from gas generation to coal generation, where they both profited well from the Rotterdam + scheme, spending Russian and Donbas coal purchased in Russia and Belarus at the price of European , and hanging the difference around the neck of ordinary Ukrainians. Further, I quote the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine:
In 2019, Ukraine intends to purchase 72% of the annual supply of anthracite coal in Russia for its thermal power plants. 3,815 million tons of anthracite will come from the Russian Federation to the country, the rest - 418 thousand tons. Ukraine plans to purchase in the USA and completely abandon the purchase of coal in South Africa.
In monetary terms, only in 2018 Ukraine bought coal in the amount of $ 2,9 billion. The main supplier was Russia (61,91%), deliveries of which amounted to $ 1,67 billion. The second place was taken by the USA (29,94%, or $ 806,3 million), and the third by Canada (4,78%, or $ 128,7 million). By the way, Belarus is in fourth place on this list, having resold, in the absence of its own, Russian and Donbass coal to Ukraine in the amount of $ 74,9 million. A trifle, it seems, but nice! (Well, the money doesn’t smell! That's right, Alexander Grigorievich ?!).
Why is Ukraine buying Russian coal? Not only because it is cheaper, but also because the issue again rests on logistics. Ukrainian ports and especially the railway tracks adjacent to them are not rubber. They will definitely not “get out” the extra 12,4 million tons of coal, and even more so, together with additional volumes of supplies of diesel and other sanctioned goods. And I'm still silent that the coal of the anthracite group “A” is mined only in the Russian Federation and in the Donbass. In Pennsylvania, Canada and South Africa, they do not even smell. And coal of this particular group is so necessary for all metallurgical enterprises of Rinat Akhmetov and Victor Pinchuk, not counting the energy component of the empire of Rinat Leonidovich - DTEK, which also sits tightly on anthracite. And here we get to the most important thing.
Ukraine is an oligarchic country
If you carefully look at the sanction list of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, you will easily find in the column an embargo on imports among lace trunks and other junk also pipes made of ferrous metals for oil and gas pipelines. And who in Ukraine makes pipes? That's right, Victor Pinchuk, the son-in-law of Kuchma, at his new, not inherited from the USSR, but built at his own Interpipe plant, spanking pipes and wheelsets for railway transport in incredible quantities, like he was sentenced. Where is the poor thing now to put this junk, I don’t even know? Prior to this, the largest buyer was the Russian Federation. By the way, I didn’t understand at all, but why did the raging Medvedev forget about wheeled railway couples, maybe they were already under sanctions before, I don’t know? But I know that Pinchuk’s television channels ICTV, STB and Novy Channel all this time, like the deaf and dumb pouring soup on aggressive Russia and continue to do so now. And I also know that Pinchuk’s people were already in Zelensky’s team. True, there are people of Beni Kolomoisky, Soros, and with him people from the Democratic team of rabid grandmother Hillary. And if Putin doesn’t have a council for Soros and his mad grandmother (all hope is only for Trump), then with Beni Kolomoisky, who is in dire need of cheap Russian gas for his Odessa port plant, the largest producer of Ukrainian petrochemicals, which is now on the joke because of the lack of gas, as well as with Victor Pinchuk, who unexpectedly faced insurmountable difficulties in marketing his products that nobody needed except the Russian Federation, consider it already agreed. Why Putin has not done so far, the question is not for me!
Firtash, Levochkin and Boyko had run to bow to Medvedev even earlier (you all remember their meeting with Medved and Miller), they also did it for a reason. Firtash is the owner of Cherkasy Azot, the second largest Ukrainian plant for the production of mineral fertilizers and other petrochemicals, which has also been joking for 4 years without Russian gas. And to make you understand, Ukrainian petrochemistry was the third item of the country's income after the production of agriculture (grain and oilseeds) and metallurgy (mainly the production of ferrous metals). And in the production of ammonium nitrate, Ukraine was generally a world leader. And now there is none of this. They have been unable to sell Odessa port for 4 years, there are no buyers, although the price has already fallen below the baseboard. Without cheap Russian raw materials, who needs it ?! The largest factory in Europe! Therefore, it is clear that neither Firtash, nor Kolomoisky, nor Boyko, who also has gas interests, nor Levochkin affiliated with them, will have to persuade friends with Russia for a long time. They have long agreed already, there were only questions with Beni, but it seems that the GDP has already forgiven him by proposing to return him along with comrade. Saak to Ukraine (all of you remember his rash phrase about a schizophrenic of small stature, which he said about GDP.
For a long time, Rinat Akhmetov, the largest Ukrainian oligarch, did not agree, to the last, he should be given credit, holding on to Yanukovych, but then quickly finding a common language with Confectioner, after he sat down with him on ball money going to them according to the Rotterdam + scheme (I wrote about it above). And thereby increasing its income over the past year alone by $ 5 billion. But from June 1 this year, along with the supply of Russian-Donbass coal, the shop seems to be closing. The very coal of the anthracite group, without which its metallurgical production could suffer the fate of Ukrainian petrochemistry without Russian gas. And metallurgy is the second item of the country's income after grain. And this blow is not only against Akhmetov, but also against Zelensky. Think ... those, Vladimir Alexandrovich!
Prior to this, the Akhmetov empire was self-sufficient, having its iron ore in Krivoy Rog, its mining and processing plants (GOKs) in the same place and its coal in the Donetsk-Lugansk basin with minimal logistics costs, Rinat could rest on his laurels and count the profits. Everything almost cracked when 11 of its mines with Donbass went to the other side, now they are owned by the former purse of Yanukovich Kurochkin, working under the roof of the FSB, but even then Akhmet got out, going to the Rotterdam + scheme, buying his own cheap coal from Kurochkin through various Russian-Belarusian-Polish gaskets supposedly at a European price and shifting the delta onto the shoulders of ordinary Ukrainians, who pay for it through the increased tariffs for electricity and heat, which are also produced from the same cursed brand “A” coal. Now the bench closes. More precisely, the window remained and it is in the hands of the Ministry of Economic Development, read Medvedev, who will manually issue permits. Guess to whom and under what conditions he will issue them? The scheme begins to operate on June 1 of this year.
And what will happen on June 1? It seems that Little John will ascend to the kingdom. And here is such an ambush! And on all fronts. No gas, no diesel fuel, no LPG, no coal. The dad will not be able to talk over, he himself was blocked by a tap until the end of 2019. What to do?! Trumpet deal! Even worse - collapse, apocalypse! Do you really have to go to bow to the Darkest? Why not? That Vladimir Vladimirovich is not a man? That he will not enter a position? In the end, there is no blood on Vova Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, tired already of the evil drunken diabetic, will support him in this with all the fibers of his soul. And some of its representatives, temporarily acting as oligarchs, faced with multimillion-dollar losses and facing the looming threat of closure of their enterprises, will even insist on it. I have only one question, why didn’t they do that before? Why did everyone forgive the evil Confectioner, and immediately make the cheerful and cheerful Little Johnny dark?
The answer lies in the fateful date of December 31, 2019. It seems that it was up to her dad and they blocked oxygen? And what will we have on December 31? That's right, the gas contract for the transit of Russian gas to Europe through the damned Ukrainian GTS expires. It is to him that Petya owes his well-being, and the Russian people in Ukraine suffer under the junta with their torment. Putin doesn’t give a damn about the Russians, women still give birth, and he is not responsible for the whole Russian world, he cares about the Russians, because he is the director of the Russian Federation, and not the Patriarch of All Russia. And the welfare of the Russians so far depends on the damned Ukrainian pipe, and it will depend for another five years until the SP-2 and TP reach full capacity (God forbid, finish building them!). And even after that, together with SP-1, SP-2, GP, TP and the Yamal-EU gas pipeline (through the Republic of Belarus), Russia will not be able to satisfy the growing needs of Europeans, who have their own fields in Holland and Norway depleted, without the Ukrainian gas transmission system. gas demand is only growing. And it will grow!
Because the cunning and bloodthirsty Putin and twists the hands of poor Little Johnny, and even puts him on his knees, because he needs a contract. Gas contract. Blood from the nose is needed! The current one expires on December 31, 2019. Therefore, all measures, including heavy artillery, were used (I’ll talk about it below, Russian passports in the Donbass, which happened immediately after the sanctions of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, you yourself understand, they didn’t just happen by chance, nothing happens in politics at all!).
Putin turns on turbo mode
To understand the severity of the issue, I will just give some numbers. The aggregate throughput capacity of SP-1, SP-2, GP, TP and Yamal-EU is 55 + 55 + 14,5 + 31,5 + 35 = 191 billion cubic meters of gas per year (GP and TP - Goluboy and Turkish streams, these are two gas pipelines to Turkey under the Black Sea with a total capacity of 14,5 + 31,5 = 46 billion cubic meters per year, of which 30 billion remains in Turkey itself, and 16 goes to the EU, to the countries of Southern and Southeastern Europe ). Last year, the Russian Federation supplied 201 billion cubic meters to Europe (90 billion through Ukraine alone). As you can see, there is not enough capacity to cover the needs of Europe without the Ukrainian GTS, by the way, its design capacity is 140 billion cubic meters of gas per year. So far, if we assume that all the gas pipelines under construction (SP-2 and TP) have already reached their design capacity, theoretically 10 billion cubic meters (201 minus 191) will hang. In addition to the gas transportation system, there is no one else to pump this volume, and taking into account the depletion of its own fields (in Norway and Holland), the EU's need for Russian gas next year will grow by another 20 billion cubic meters. Those. the hypothetical delta is already increasing to 30! And if we recall that the ground-based extension of SP-2 will be completed only in 2021, and the SP-2 will reach its design capacity in another 3 years, then the demand for the Ukrainian pipe will only grow. Last year, about 90 yards of gas was pumped through it, in 2019 there will be 100, in 2020 - 120. Even when all new gas pipelines reach their design capacity, the loading of the Ukrainian pipe will still remain at the level of at least 10-30 billion cubic meters of gas per year from an upward trend as the EU's demand for Russian gas increases and as the rate of depletion of Norwegian and Dutch fields.
Therefore, Putin “turned on the beast”, forcing Ukraine to a minimum to sign a contract, and a maximum to create a consortium on ukro-GTS. For those who don’t know, Belarusians also ran up to the last, but as a result, they gave their Yamal-EU pipe to Gazprom. It will be more difficult with Ukraine, but all the same, even if Putin does not cope, Europe will sell them through European recipients of Russian gas. Because no one there wants and is not going to overpay for it (Grandma Merkel is in share and doesn’t eat her bread in vain!). The more expensive gas, the more expensive European products, which run the risk of becoming uncompetitive in the US market, which Trump seeks. And Gazprom is also seeking Ukraine to write off a $ 2,56 yard fine in Stockholm and reassign the pipe. Under Pete, this was not possible, but there was a margin of time. On December 31, 2019, this time limit expires. There comes a moment of truth. Therefore, Putin turned on the turbo mode. Chances to resist, Zelensky has no! Otherwise, he will get a pipe, and the Ukrainian pipe will still go to the Russian Federation. It’s cheaper and easier to negotiate.
Each subsequent proposal by Putin is worse than the previous one. Who has not yet understood this?
A bit of recent history: When asked by a RBC-Ukraine correspondent whether Donbass should have a special status, Zelensky replied no. Whether he intends to grant amnesty to citizens of unrecognized republics, the future president of Ukraine replied that he didn’t. And if we recall, whom he recently called scum, then Moscow’s response was lightning fast and quite predictable. Without waiting for the inauguration of the new president of Ukraine, Putin, by his decree, allowed the issuance of Russian passports to all citizens residing on the territory of LDNR for a period of 3 months without any additional conditions. Hard? Yes! Perhaps it was necessary to wait for the real first actions of the newly elected president of Ukraine? Maybe it was worth it. But it was even more worth the newly elected President to chat less with his tongue. His language now not only belongs to him! You need to think when you speak!
Finally, we can say that after 4 years, Moscow again proceeded to active actions in Ukraine, not minimizing the consequences of the agenda imposed on it, but creating this agenda itself. In person, we have a clear and unambiguous interception from the West of a strategic initiative in the Ukrainian direction with the full connivance of the same West (why should it?). Putin moves to the game first number, leaving Kiev and some uninitiated western players from his environment to swallow dust from his hooves. It is noteworthy that this happened when nobody expected this again. Which is very in the traditions of GDP.
When all self-respecting media experts defeated Zelensky in the first round of the Ukrainian elections, predicting his possible victory in the second round, they assumed a certain pause in the Ukrainian direction associated with the understandable need for the Kremlin to wait for the first steps of the new Ukrainian government, so as not to to frighten off the flickering hope of the people who chose it for the improvement of Russian-Ukrainian relations, and thereby prevent ill-wishers from saying that Moscow has ruined everything again. There was logic in these judgments, although no one experienced any special illusions regarding the possible actions of the new Ukrainian government, due to its complete loss of its subjectivity. Moscow wanted the Ukrainian people to do something for their own salvation. So he did. 1% of Ukrainian citizens, both in the west and in the east, in 2 out of 73 regions, voted for Zelensky, thereby putting a bold cross on the policy pursued by the evil Pastry Chef, with his armies, movs and virs. It would be foolish for the Kremlin not to take advantage of this opportunity. You can fight against the regime, but you cannot fight against the people. Therefore, what happened between the 24st and 25nd rounds of the Ukrainian elections came as a complete surprise not only for Kiev, but also for the rest. Why Putin was forced to play ahead of the curve, I have already explained above. Putin is creating new elements of pressure on Kiev, so that he no longer depends on his actions, but to influence his decisions himself.
The decision to issue Russian passports to all citizens of the unrecognized republics finally finished off the surrounding community. Although it was long expected, nevertheless, after the sanctions of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, adopted a week earlier, it gave the impression of a control shot in the head. In Kiev, a completely expected hysteria immediately began on this matter, which looked even ridiculous against the background of complete ignorance of this fact by the world community in the person of the UN Security Council, where Ukraine immediately snitched. The question was not even put to a vote - Germany, which chaired that day, did not find sufficient reasons for this, which is very indicative (I think Frau Merkel was aware of such plans of the GDP in advance). Putin is driving Zelenskiy into a narrow corridor of decision-making. At the same time, acting in his favorite manner, when each subsequent sentence is worse than the previous one. Immediately after the decision to issue passports to all citizens of the yet unrecognized republics (here I draw your attention to the words "still"), Putin, at a press approach following his visit to the PRC, voiced the idea that other citizens can also use this right Ukraine. And if Vova Zelensky does not correctly respond to the first proposal of the GDP, then he risks running into the second one, after which he may remain the president without citizens and not the fact that with the territories.
From the foregoing, only two primitive conclusions follow, even the oligophrenic leader of the Rada understands:
1. The window of opportunities for maintaining the country within today's borders is narrowing for Kiev - either Minsk without excuses and conditions, or the loss of territories.
2. The window of the possibility of returning LDNR by military force from this moment for Kiev closes completely and irrevocably, just as it has already been closed with Crimea.
It's funny that the brothers immediately remembered that they had almost 4 million Ukrainian citizens left there. There is only one question - why haven’t they remembered before? What is this “scum” and “genetic garbage that needs to be driven out through the filtration camps”, suddenly suddenly again became citizens of Ukraine? Well, okay, the question is rhetorical - you can not answer.
PS In 2014, upon taking office, Petro Poroshenko unexpectedly discovered for himself that he had lost the Crimea. After exactly 5 years, Vova Zelensky, being in a mirror situation, risks, if he follows his path, to lose even the Donbass. Coincidence, you say? I don’t know ... Rather, a pattern. Think ... those, Mr. President! Time is already playing against you.