Peace enforcement operation. Russia inflicts a preemptive strike on Kiev

In 2014, upon taking office, Petro Poroshenko unexpectedly discovered that he had lost the Crimea. After exactly 5 years, Vova Zelensky, being in a mirror situation, risks, if he follows his path, to lose even the Donbass. Coincidence, you say? I don’t know ... Rather, a pattern. Vladimir Vladimirovich has already made his move with the e2-e4 pawn. Now the move is after Vladimir Alexandrovich. Think ... those, Mr. President! For people who do not play chess, I inform you - pawns do not go back!




Laughs the one who shoots last


On April 18, 2019, the regular list of Ukrainian goods prohibited for import into the Russian Federation, as well as a similar list of Russian goods prohibited for delivery to Ukraine, was published on the website of the Russian government. Well, a ban and a ban, say the Russian citizen, a ban more, a ban less, how many of them have already been during this time? And he will be right. But the whole trick is in the details! And the details are such that if everything goes according to the plan of Moscow, then for some Ukrainian oligarchs, and on the tangent through them and the entire Kiev oligarchic regime, who has been drinking blood from the Ukrainian people for 28 years, kirdyk will come in the next year and a half, and complete and final. Why haven’t done so until now, I have a big question ?! But this question, as they say, is not for me, we will leave unanswered, but we will consider in detail what the Kremlin’s treacherous plan consists of.

According to this decree, import from Ukraine into the Russian Federation of pipes made of ferrous metals (including oil and gas pipelines), pipe layers with a carrying capacity of less than 90 tons, some models of bulldozers, single-bucket loaders, reapers and spare parts for them, as well as long the list of goods of Ukrainian light industry, starting with shoes, suits and dresses, and ending with socks, stockings and lace panties. In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers’s decree introduces a ban on supplies of Russian oil, oil products, as well as coal and other coal products to Ukraine (the ban applies to briquettes, pellets and similar types of hard fuel from hard coal, lignite or lignite, agglomerated or non-agglomerated, other than jet, coke or semi-coke from coal, lignite or peat, agglomerated or non-agglomerated, as well as retort coal). Starting June 1, all such deliveries will now be carried out only with the separate permissions of the RF Ministry of Economic Development. Remember this detail!

It seems to be nonsense, you say, but this is how to look. The fact is that Ukraine is critically dependent, no, not on the supply of Russian oil, as many have already thought, (it just does not buy it in the Russian Federation, satisfying the needs of the only remaining Kremenchug refinery with Azerbaijani oil), but on supplies petroleum products - gasolines, solariums and LPG (liquefied petroleum gases - propane-butanes, etc.), which she buys in Belarus (40,4%), Russia (36,7%) and Lithuania (9,5%). Those. only 13,4% of its fuel needs are met by Ukraine on its own, and 86,6% have to be purchased abroad. And if it can still be agreed with Lithuania, then it is unlikely with Belarus. And not because the Old Man does not want to. And because the Kremlin and Old Man blocked the oxygen, moreover, from the end of last year. I quote further TASS:

From November 2018 until the end of 2019, Russia will not supply gas, diesel and fuel oil to Belarus, according to the terms of the previously signed indicative balance for the supply of petroleum products until the end of 2019. This was reported to journalists by the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak. “As for gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil - zero indicators are provided for in the indicative balance,” he said. An official representative of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said earlier that the new agreements between Russia and Belarus exclude the possibility of "gray" schemes in the supply of petroleum products within the framework of a union state, because of which the Russian budget lost revenue. At the same time, a TASS source explained that Belarus had previously re-exported oil products received from Russia, and now, under the terms of the agreements, it does not have such an opportunity.


Reuters previously, citing sources in the government of the Russian Federation, reported that Russia would not supply liquefied petroleum gas to Belarus (LPG, not to be confused with LNG - liquefied natural gas). Export from Russia remains only for those products that Belarus itself cannot produce - oil, natural gas, gas condensate, a wide fraction of light hydrocarbons, as well as a number of petroleum products for petrochemicals. As a result, according to the head of the tax and customs department policy The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Sazanov, the amount of duty-free supplies of Russian light petroleum products to Belarus may be reduced by more than 6 times - from 2 million to 100-300 thousand tons per year, and the supply of dark petroleum products generally cease. It is unlikely that in this situation Belarus will supply fuel to Ukraine at the expense of its own needs.

To make you understand what amounts are involved, I’ll give you that only in 2018 Ukraine bought a total of about 10 million tons of gasoline, liquefied gas and diesel fuel for a total of $ 5 billion. At the same time, while maintaining the volume of purchases of gasoline and solariums, the share of LPG increases. Only in the period 2014-2018, the consumption of "propane-butane" in Ukraine doubled and reached 1,7-1,8 million tons, with only 450 thousand tons of gas produced domestically, and more than 1,3 million tons in In 2018, she was forced to import.

And if both Belarus and the Russian Federation say no to her, then even despite the prices, Ukraine will be logistically unable to compensate for this loss. The fact is that the diesel went to her from the Russian Federation through the pipe, which reduced its cost and unloaded railway traffic. Now imagine that such a volume will go by sea, even if Odessa terminals can swallow it, Ukrzaliznytsia, which does not have time to service all of its grain traders, suppliers of iron ore raw materials and power engineers, cannot take it out. What should the new Ukrainian president do in this situation, keep proud silence and loyalty to Washington, or bow to Moscow? The question is open. Think ... those, Vladimir Alexandrovich! Because further there will be a collapse. Ukrnaft has already begun to sound the alarm: “The cessation of such supplies is becoming a reality, this can really lead to a collapse not only in the fuel market, but also in the Ukrainian the economy and undermine the country's national security, ”they write in a panic. And for some reason I believe them.

And I haven't said anything about coal yet. Strange, but practically no one paid attention to the fact that coal was also included in the sanctions list of Russia. And this is 12,4 million tons of fuel, on the availability of which not only Ukrainian metallurgy, but also the energy sector depend today. Because during the reign of the evil Confectioner, through his efforts and the efforts of his accomplice Rinat Akhmetov, half of the capacities of Ukrainian thermal power plants were transferred from gas generation to coal generation, where they both profited well from the Rotterdam + scheme, spending Russian and Donbas coal purchased in Russia and Belarus at the price of European , and hanging the difference around the neck of ordinary Ukrainians. Further, I quote the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine:

In 2019, Ukraine intends to purchase 72% of the annual supply of anthracite coal in Russia for its thermal power plants. 3,815 million tons of anthracite will come from the Russian Federation to the country, the rest - 418 thousand tons. Ukraine plans to purchase in the USA and completely abandon the purchase of coal in South Africa.


In monetary terms, only in 2018 Ukraine bought coal in the amount of $ 2,9 billion. The main supplier was Russia (61,91%), deliveries of which amounted to $ 1,67 billion. The second place was taken by the USA (29,94%, or $ 806,3 million), and the third by Canada (4,78%, or $ 128,7 million). By the way, Belarus is in fourth place on this list, having resold, in the absence of its own, Russian and Donbass coal to Ukraine in the amount of $ 74,9 million. A trifle, it seems, but nice! (Well, the money doesn’t smell! That's right, Alexander Grigorievich ?!).

Why is Ukraine buying Russian coal? Not only because it is cheaper, but also because the issue again rests on logistics. Ukrainian ports and especially the railway tracks adjacent to them are not rubber. They will definitely not “get out” the extra 12,4 million tons of coal, and even more so, together with additional volumes of supplies of diesel and other sanctioned goods. And I'm still silent that the coal of the anthracite group “A” is mined only in the Russian Federation and in the Donbass. In Pennsylvania, Canada and South Africa, they do not even smell. And coal of this particular group is so necessary for all metallurgical enterprises of Rinat Akhmetov and Victor Pinchuk, not counting the energy component of the empire of Rinat Leonidovich - DTEK, which also sits tightly on anthracite. And here we get to the most important thing.

Ukraine is an oligarchic country


If you carefully look at the sanction list of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, you will easily find in the column an ​​embargo on imports among lace trunks and other junk also pipes made of ferrous metals for oil and gas pipelines. And who in Ukraine makes pipes? That's right, Victor Pinchuk, the son-in-law of Kuchma, at his new, not inherited from the USSR, but built at his own Interpipe plant, spanking pipes and wheelsets for railway transport in incredible quantities, like he was sentenced. Where is the poor thing now to put this junk, I don’t even know? Prior to this, the largest buyer was the Russian Federation. By the way, I didn’t understand at all, but why did the raging Medvedev forget about wheeled railway couples, maybe they were already under sanctions before, I don’t know? But I know that Pinchuk’s television channels ICTV, STB and Novy Channel all this time, like the deaf and dumb pouring soup on aggressive Russia and continue to do so now. And I also know that Pinchuk’s people were already in Zelensky’s team. True, there are people of Beni Kolomoisky, Soros, and with him people from the Democratic team of rabid grandmother Hillary. And if Putin doesn’t have a council for Soros and his mad grandmother (all hope is only for Trump), then with Beni Kolomoisky, who is in dire need of cheap Russian gas for his Odessa port plant, the largest producer of Ukrainian petrochemicals, which is now on the joke because of the lack of gas, as well as with Victor Pinchuk, who unexpectedly faced insurmountable difficulties in marketing his products that nobody needed except the Russian Federation, consider it already agreed. Why Putin has not done so far, the question is not for me!

Firtash, Levochkin and Boyko had run to bow to Medvedev even earlier (you all remember their meeting with Medved and Miller), they also did it for a reason. Firtash is the owner of Cherkasy Azot, the second largest Ukrainian plant for the production of mineral fertilizers and other petrochemicals, which has also been joking for 4 years without Russian gas. And to make you understand, Ukrainian petrochemistry was the third item of the country's income after the production of agriculture (grain and oilseeds) and metallurgy (mainly the production of ferrous metals). And in the production of ammonium nitrate, Ukraine was generally a world leader. And now there is none of this. They have been unable to sell Odessa port for 4 years, there are no buyers, although the price has already fallen below the baseboard. Without cheap Russian raw materials, who needs it ?! The largest factory in Europe! Therefore, it is clear that neither Firtash, nor Kolomoisky, nor Boyko, who also has gas interests, nor Levochkin affiliated with them, will have to persuade friends with Russia for a long time. They have long agreed already, there were only questions with Beni, but it seems that the GDP has already forgiven him by proposing to return him along with comrade. Saak to Ukraine (all of you remember his rash phrase about a schizophrenic of small stature, which he said about GDP.


For a long time, Rinat Akhmetov, the largest Ukrainian oligarch, did not agree, to the last, he should be given credit, holding on to Yanukovych, but then quickly finding a common language with Confectioner, after he sat down with him on ball money going to them according to the Rotterdam + scheme (I wrote about it above). And thereby increasing its income over the past year alone by $ 5 billion. But from June 1 this year, along with the supply of Russian-Donbass coal, the shop seems to be closing. The very coal of the anthracite group, without which its metallurgical production could suffer the fate of Ukrainian petrochemistry without Russian gas. And metallurgy is the second item of the country's income after grain. And this blow is not only against Akhmetov, but also against Zelensky. Think ... those, Vladimir Alexandrovich!

Prior to this, the Akhmetov empire was self-sufficient, having its iron ore in Krivoy Rog, its mining and processing plants (GOKs) in the same place and its coal in the Donetsk-Lugansk basin with minimal logistics costs, Rinat could rest on his laurels and count the profits. Everything almost cracked when 11 of its mines with Donbass went to the other side, now they are owned by the former purse of Yanukovich Kurochkin, working under the roof of the FSB, but even then Akhmet got out, going to the Rotterdam + scheme, buying his own cheap coal from Kurochkin through various Russian-Belarusian-Polish gaskets supposedly at a European price and shifting the delta onto the shoulders of ordinary Ukrainians, who pay for it through the increased tariffs for electricity and heat, which are also produced from the same cursed brand “A” coal. Now the bench closes. More precisely, the window remained and it is in the hands of the Ministry of Economic Development, read Medvedev, who will manually issue permits. Guess to whom and under what conditions he will issue them? The scheme begins to operate on June 1 of this year.

And what will happen on June 1? It seems that Little John will ascend to the kingdom. And here is such an ambush! And on all fronts. No gas, no diesel fuel, no LPG, no coal. The dad will not be able to talk over, he himself was blocked by a tap until the end of 2019. What to do?! Trumpet deal! Even worse - collapse, apocalypse! Do you really have to go to bow to the Darkest? Why not? That Vladimir Vladimirovich is not a man? That he will not enter a position? In the end, there is no blood on Vova Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, tired already of the evil drunken diabetic, will support him in this with all the fibers of his soul. And some of its representatives, temporarily acting as oligarchs, faced with multimillion-dollar losses and facing the looming threat of closure of their enterprises, will even insist on it. I have only one question, why didn’t they do that before? Why did everyone forgive the evil Confectioner, and immediately make the cheerful and cheerful Little Johnny dark?

The answer lies in the fateful date of December 31, 2019. It seems that it was up to her dad and they blocked oxygen? And what will we have on December 31? That's right, the gas contract for the transit of Russian gas to Europe through the damned Ukrainian GTS expires. It is to him that Petya owes his well-being, and the Russian people in Ukraine suffer under the junta with their torment. Putin doesn’t give a damn about the Russians, women still give birth, and he is not responsible for the whole Russian world, he cares about the Russians, because he is the director of the Russian Federation, and not the Patriarch of All Russia. And the welfare of the Russians so far depends on the damned Ukrainian pipe, and it will depend for another five years until the SP-2 and TP reach full capacity (God forbid, finish building them!). And even after that, together with SP-1, SP-2, GP, TP and the Yamal-EU gas pipeline (through the Republic of Belarus), Russia will not be able to satisfy the growing needs of Europeans, who have their own fields in Holland and Norway depleted, without the Ukrainian gas transmission system. gas demand is only growing. And it will grow!

Because the cunning and bloodthirsty Putin and twists the hands of poor Little Johnny, and even puts him on his knees, because he needs a contract. Gas contract. Blood from the nose is needed! The current one expires on December 31, 2019. Therefore, all measures, including heavy artillery, were used (I’ll talk about it below, Russian passports in the Donbass, which happened immediately after the sanctions of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, you yourself understand, they didn’t just happen by chance, nothing happens in politics at all!).

Putin turns on turbo mode


To understand the severity of the issue, I will just give some numbers. The aggregate throughput capacity of SP-1, SP-2, GP, TP and Yamal-EU is 55 + 55 + 14,5 + 31,5 + 35 = 191 billion cubic meters of gas per year (GP and TP - Goluboy and Turkish streams, these are two gas pipelines to Turkey under the Black Sea with a total capacity of 14,5 + 31,5 = 46 billion cubic meters per year, of which 30 billion remains in Turkey itself, and 16 goes to the EU, to the countries of Southern and Southeastern Europe ). Last year, the Russian Federation supplied 201 billion cubic meters to Europe (90 billion through Ukraine alone). As you can see, there is not enough capacity to cover the needs of Europe without the Ukrainian GTS, by the way, its design capacity is 140 billion cubic meters of gas per year. So far, if we assume that all the gas pipelines under construction (SP-2 and TP) have already reached their design capacity, theoretically 10 billion cubic meters (201 minus 191) will hang. In addition to the gas transportation system, there is no one else to pump this volume, and taking into account the depletion of its own fields (in Norway and Holland), the EU's need for Russian gas next year will grow by another 20 billion cubic meters. Those. the hypothetical delta is already increasing to 30! And if we recall that the ground-based extension of SP-2 will be completed only in 2021, and the SP-2 will reach its design capacity in another 3 years, then the demand for the Ukrainian pipe will only grow. Last year, about 90 yards of gas was pumped through it, in 2019 there will be 100, in 2020 - 120. Even when all new gas pipelines reach their design capacity, the loading of the Ukrainian pipe will still remain at the level of at least 10-30 billion cubic meters of gas per year from an upward trend as the EU's demand for Russian gas increases and as the rate of depletion of Norwegian and Dutch fields.

Therefore, Putin “turned on the beast”, forcing Ukraine to a minimum to sign a contract, and a maximum to create a consortium on ukro-GTS. For those who don’t know, Belarusians also ran up to the last, but as a result, they gave their Yamal-EU pipe to Gazprom. It will be more difficult with Ukraine, but all the same, even if Putin does not cope, Europe will sell them through European recipients of Russian gas. Because no one there wants and is not going to overpay for it (Grandma Merkel is in share and doesn’t eat her bread in vain!). The more expensive gas, the more expensive European products, which run the risk of becoming uncompetitive in the US market, which Trump seeks. And Gazprom is also seeking Ukraine to write off a $ 2,56 yard fine in Stockholm and reassign the pipe. Under Pete, this was not possible, but there was a margin of time. On December 31, 2019, this time limit expires. There comes a moment of truth. Therefore, Putin turned on the turbo mode. Chances to resist, Zelensky has no! Otherwise, he will get a pipe, and the Ukrainian pipe will still go to the Russian Federation. It’s cheaper and easier to negotiate.

Each subsequent proposal by Putin is worse than the previous one. Who has not yet understood this?


A bit of recent history: When asked by a RBC-Ukraine correspondent whether Donbass should have a special status, Zelensky replied no. Whether he intends to grant amnesty to citizens of unrecognized republics, the future president of Ukraine replied that he didn’t. And if we recall, whom he recently called scum, then Moscow’s response was lightning fast and quite predictable. Without waiting for the inauguration of the new president of Ukraine, Putin, by his decree, allowed the issuance of Russian passports to all citizens residing on the territory of LDNR for a period of 3 months without any additional conditions. Hard? Yes! Perhaps it was necessary to wait for the real first actions of the newly elected president of Ukraine? Maybe it was worth it. But it was even more worth the newly elected President to chat less with his tongue. His language now not only belongs to him! You need to think when you speak!

Finally, we can say that after 4 years, Moscow again proceeded to active actions in Ukraine, not minimizing the consequences of the agenda imposed on it, but creating this agenda itself. In person, we have a clear and unambiguous interception from the West of a strategic initiative in the Ukrainian direction with the full connivance of the same West (why should it?). Putin moves to the game first number, leaving Kiev and some uninitiated western players from his environment to swallow dust from his hooves. It is noteworthy that this happened when nobody expected this again. Which is very in the traditions of GDP.

When all self-respecting media experts defeated Zelensky in the first round of the Ukrainian elections, predicting his possible victory in the second round, they assumed a certain pause in the Ukrainian direction associated with the understandable need for the Kremlin to wait for the first steps of the new Ukrainian government, so as not to to frighten off the flickering hope of the people who chose it for the improvement of Russian-Ukrainian relations, and thereby prevent ill-wishers from saying that Moscow has ruined everything again. There was logic in these judgments, although no one experienced any special illusions regarding the possible actions of the new Ukrainian government, due to its complete loss of its subjectivity. Moscow wanted the Ukrainian people to do something for their own salvation. So he did. 1% of Ukrainian citizens, both in the west and in the east, in 2 out of 73 regions, voted for Zelensky, thereby putting a bold cross on the policy pursued by the evil Pastry Chef, with his armies, movs and virs. It would be foolish for the Kremlin not to take advantage of this opportunity. You can fight against the regime, but you cannot fight against the people. Therefore, what happened between the 24st and 25nd rounds of the Ukrainian elections came as a complete surprise not only for Kiev, but also for the rest. Why Putin was forced to play ahead of the curve, I have already explained above. Putin is creating new elements of pressure on Kiev, so that he no longer depends on his actions, but to influence his decisions himself.

The decision to issue Russian passports to all citizens of the unrecognized republics finally finished off the surrounding community. Although it was long expected, nevertheless, after the sanctions of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation, adopted a week earlier, it gave the impression of a control shot in the head. In Kiev, a completely expected hysteria immediately began on this matter, which looked even ridiculous against the background of complete ignorance of this fact by the world community in the person of the UN Security Council, where Ukraine immediately snitched. The question was not even put to a vote - Germany, which chaired that day, did not find sufficient reasons for this, which is very indicative (I think Frau Merkel was aware of such plans of the GDP in advance). Putin is driving Zelenskiy into a narrow corridor of decision-making. At the same time, acting in his favorite manner, when each subsequent sentence is worse than the previous one. Immediately after the decision to issue passports to all citizens of the yet unrecognized republics (here I draw your attention to the words "still"), Putin, at a press approach following his visit to the PRC, voiced the idea that other citizens can also use this right Ukraine. And if Vova Zelensky does not correctly respond to the first proposal of the GDP, then he risks running into the second one, after which he may remain the president without citizens and not the fact that with the territories.

Сonclusion


From the foregoing, only two primitive conclusions follow, even the oligophrenic leader of the Rada understands:

1. The window of opportunities for maintaining the country within today's borders is narrowing for Kiev - either Minsk without excuses and conditions, or the loss of territories.
2. The window of the possibility of returning LDNR by military force from this moment for Kiev closes completely and irrevocably, just as it has already been closed with Crimea.

It's funny that the brothers immediately remembered that they had almost 4 million Ukrainian citizens left there. There is only one question - why haven’t they remembered before? What is this “scum” and “genetic garbage that needs to be driven out through the filtration camps”, suddenly suddenly again became citizens of Ukraine? Well, okay, the question is rhetorical - you can not answer.

PS In 2014, upon taking office, Petro Poroshenko unexpectedly discovered for himself that he had lost the Crimea. After exactly 5 years, Vova Zelensky, being in a mirror situation, risks, if he follows his path, to lose even the Donbass. Coincidence, you say? I don’t know ... Rather, a pattern. Think ... those, Mr. President! Time is already playing against you.
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  1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
    gennady_2 (gennady) April 30 2019 19: 58
    +2
    Last year, the Russian Federation supplied 201 billion cubic meters to the EU ... but 15,5 remains in Turkey itself

    here is a mistake. 201bn is not in the EU, but in Europe, taking into account Turkey - this is indicated on the official Gazprom website http://www.gazpromexport.ru/statistics/
    therefore, you mistakenly took 15,5 billion from your calculations. therefore, not 40 in the end, but -15,5 = 24,5 should be through Ukraine.

    Already hung up 40 billion cubic meters (201 minus 161), except for ukro-GTS, there is no one else to pump this volume

    Miller claims:

    Gas transit through Ukraine will continue ... in volumes of 10-15 billion cubic meters per year.

    which of the two of you is mistaken, I don’t know.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) April 30 2019 20: 23
      +1
      There is no mistake here, it’s only a mistake that the EU calculated taking into account Turkey, yes. But the Turkish stream has not yet earned, neither the first nor the second thread, so there is nothing to subtract. I counted the throughput capacity of bypass routes bypassing Ukraine when starting all flows of SP-1 + SP-2 + TP + Yamal-EU = 1 billion cubic meters. So far, only SP-2 and Yamal-EU (through Belarus) are working at full load. This is 161 + 1 = 55 billion cubic meters. In 35, 90 billion cubic meters were pumped through Ukraine. 2018 + 89 = 89. 90 billion cubic meters depended on (179 - 22 = 201), maybe they were sent by sea via LNG, I don’t know. 179 billion will fall out if the current EU demand for gas continues and we abandon the gas supply system when all bypass threads reach full capacity. And it will be only in 22-40 years at least. Therefore, without the Ukrainian pipe, nowhere! And after 3, not 4 yards remain, as Miller said, but all 2024-15, taking into account the decline in production in the Norwegian and Dutch fields. It is he who simply knocks down the price. There is a bargain.
      1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
        gennady_2 (gennady) April 30 2019 20: 38
        +2
        There is no mistake here

        Well, how not? here is your calculation

        The cumulative throughput of SP-1, SP-2, TP, Yamal-EU is 55 + 55 + 16 + 35 = 161 billion cubic meters of gas per year (the throughput of TP is actually 31,5 billion cubic meters, but 15,5 remains in Turkey itself).

        instead of 31,5 you counted 16 (you mistakenly took away Turkey, but I gave the link to the offsite). but it should be like this: 55 + 55 + 31.5 + 35 = 176,5

        But the Turkish stream has not yet earned, neither the first nor the second thread, so there is nothing to subtract.

        but you counted them!
        and it is precisely because of these 15,5 billion that the error goes further:

        201 minus 161

        not. 201-176,5. and then you make an erroneous conclusion that in the end it turns out 40. but in fact 24,5. is it not clear?
        1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) April 30 2019 22: 04
          +3
          You are right, Gennady, things are even worse there, I did not count the Blue Stream - about 14,5 yards go to Turkey through it. The total is 55 + 55 + 31,5 + 14,5 + 35 = 191 yards bypassing Ukraine. Those. drops so far as of 2018 10 yards. Given the decline in domestic production in the EU, plus another 20 yards already for this 2019 year. Total - 30. For 2020, another plus 20, total 50. I think this with a full load of SP-1, SP-2, GP, TP, Yamal-EU, and it will happen only with 2024. That is, while without ukro pipes anywhere! And after 2024 through it a minimum of 10, a maximum of 50-60, it all depends on the rate of depletion of the Norwegian and Dutch deposits. It turns out that Miller is not lying. Rather, he’s lying, but in a tricky way, without explaining that until we reach the designed capacity without the GTS shuttle, we’ll go out only by 2022-24, and then either the demand for EU gas will increase or its deposits will be completely depleted, i.e. the demand for Russian gas in this delta will also increase.
        2. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) April 30 2019 23: 00
          +3
          Made changes to the text. Thanks!
          1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
            gennady_2 (gennady) 1 May 2019 10: 42
            +1
            for completeness, the growing supply of our LNG to Europe is not enough. "Net imports of Russian LNG by European countries in 2018 amounted to 4,4 million tons"
            1 metric ton of LNG = 1420 cubic meters of gas
            as a result, we have 4,4 million times 1420 = 6,24 billion cubic meters for the last year.
            and we are rapidly increasing volumes.
            1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
              Volkonsky (Vladimir) 1 May 2019 14: 08
              +1
              Thanks to you, I was able to find a shortage of 6,5 yards of gas cubes. According to what came out in 2018: SP-1 + Ukrainian GTS + Yamal-EU + GP = 55 + 90 + 35 + 14,5 = 194,5 billion cubic meters. 201 - 194,5 = 6,5 yards
              1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
                gennady_2 (gennady) 1 May 2019 20: 43
                0
                could find a shortage of 6,5 yards of gas cubes.

                not. 201 billion is only Gazprom, and LNG is already completely different - its competitors. although Sakhalin-2 and 51% of Gazprom, but the majority of LNG is Novatek. and Gazprom would have voiced LNG supplies in the data, but he didn’t even mention it. Hence the conclusion that 201 is only pipelines.
                through Belarus, you counted 35, and in fact for 2018, 42,3 passed
                https://www.belta.by/economics/view/objem-tranzita-gaza-cherez-belarus-v-2018-godu-uvelichilsja-na-3-340998-2019/
                1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
                  Volkonsky (Vladimir) 1 May 2019 23: 31
                  +1
                  You are just an invaluable reader, it's a pity that you met late, they asked me from now on, NAGA and me (this is my sidekick from the Global Adventure, a very smart guy) said that they pumped through SP-1 in 2018 more than the design 55 yards, 61,96, 94232 yards. http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/7 - only this link does not open for me, I took my word for it. But then the superfluous went - 7 GK extra through Yamal-EU, and 1 GK extra through SP-3. And there something else also got to Moldova through ukroGTS - 201 more GK. Already exceeded the GK XNUMX limit
                  1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                    A.Lex (Secret information) 2 May 2019 08: 13
                    0
                    Quote: Volkonsky
                    ... they have already asked me to go ...

                    I don’t understand ... You will not be "printed" here ???
                    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
                      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 2 May 2019 15: 55
                      0
                      It seems that everything is going to this, alas! Not a format for them
                  2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                    A.Lex (Secret information) 2 May 2019 08: 21
                    0
                    Vladimir, to you too - where do we put the comma in the phrase that I indicated to Gennady?
                  3. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
                    gennady_2 (gennady) 2 May 2019 13: 40
                    0
                    this link doesn’t open for me, I believe in the word.

                    everything opened in firefox and the Yandex browser.

                    Gas supplies to Europe through the Nord Stream gas pipeline exceed the project level by 10%, said Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom Board Markelov.

                    so that when writing future articles you can link.
                    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
                      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 2 May 2019 16: 10
                      +1
                      Gennady, so how much did we get? SP-1 + GP + Yamal-EU + UkroGTS = 60,5 + 14,5 + 42 + 89 = 206. Somewhere I came across the figure for 2018 - 205 Gk
                      Now max design capacity with newly built: SP-1 + SP-2 + GP + TP + Yamal-EC = 60 + 60 + 15 + 32 + 42 = 209 Gk. We come to Miller's figures 10-15 through ukroGTS per year. But all this is only since 2024. And therefore, so far without ukroGTS anywhere!
                      1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
                        gennady_2 (gennady) 3 May 2019 16: 33
                        +1
                        all this only since 2024.

                        where infa such? SP-2 is being built according to the plan, and the plans include the first string in November 2019, the second in December 2019. Only Denmark can spoil it, but so far the construction is proceeding without problems. On May 1, 2019, more than 1125 km were built. the pipeline. This is about 47% of the total length on both threads. Wikipedia data https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_flow_—_2
                        according to the Turkish stream, so far everything is according to plan - the end is in December 2019. the offshore section was built and Putin in November 2018 came to Turkey on this occasion. building up the ground part.
                        https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Турецкий_поток
                        and most importantly, transactions with Western countries are already being signed bypassing Ukraine, i.e. Miller is sure that everything will be completed by the end of 2019. although sticks are inserted, but so far the plans have not been postponed.
                      2. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
                        Volkonsky (Vladimir) 3 May 2019 23: 33
                        +1
                        SP-2 will be completed on time, ground-based continuation lags, interconnectors. With TP a little better, but also on the ground do not catch up. And after this, it is still necessary to reach its design capacity, this is at least a year. Infa is open. Merkel talked about this and Erdogan. A walk around Denmark will not break the deadlines, it will only increase the cost of construction a little (300-400 bucks)
                      3. vikganz Offline vikganz
                        vikganz (Vik Ganz) 21 May 2019 10: 54
                        0
                        Why bucks? Is it like selling Airbus in Europe and selling it in dollars? Euros no longer fit?
              2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                A.Lex (Secret information) 10 March 2020 11: 18
                0
                Vladimir, are you still here or not already? Something you have not seen lately ... Quite gone?
            2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
              A.Lex (Secret information) 2 May 2019 08: 20
              0
              Gennady, I've read both the article and your picks with Vladimir ... And why none of you indicate that the state of the Ukrainian GTS is in "use can not be cut"? (put a comma in your own opinion and understanding).
              After all, in the same place ... or am I misunderstanding something?
              1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
                gennady_2 (gennady) 2 May 2019 13: 26
                0
                After all, there)! (Oops ... or am I misunderstanding something?

                what they planned, then pumped. and if there are accidents - this is the problem of Naftogaz and fines. while everything is normal. and Naftogaz claims that the deterioration is only 50%.
                1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
                  A.Lex (Secret information) 2 May 2019 14: 58
                  +1
                  But it will be the losses of Russia ... Geyropa will not pay for the loss of gas from a leaky pipe.
                  1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
                    gennady_2 (gennady) 2 May 2019 15: 05
                    0
                    Geyropa will not pay for the loss of gas from a holey pipe.

                    Naftogaz will pay - this is his responsibility. and the Russian Federation, these problems of Naftogaz are only at hand, they (Ukraine) will confirm their insecurity as a partner.
              2. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
                Volkonsky (Vladimir) 2 May 2019 15: 51
                +1
                Alex, take my word for it, it’s not at all an ass, in Soviet times it was built for centuries, you just need a little modernization, an upgrade. It's just that Miller knocked down the price for her in such a way.
  2. sH, arK Offline sH, arK
    sH, arK 2 May 2019 09: 14
    +1
    You still forgot something in the calculations: Durkain also consumes 20-25 billion of what is considered to be going to the EU. This “reverse” can be ignored with a clear conscience. And GP has a tolerance in contracts - it should also be taken into account. And do not forget about LNG - Sabetta and Vysotsky. So it’s quite possible to do without urcoGTS ...
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 2 May 2019 15: 53
      +1
      Ukraine is Europe, it’s not funny to say it. By the way, Moldova, too, with its 3 yards, all this sits at 201.
  • Rusa Offline Rusa
    Rusa 1 May 2019 09: 31
    +4
    Ukraine is an oligarchic country.

    For example, I do not have such euphoria as the author. Russia is also an oligarchic country.
    A raven will not peck out a raven's eye. I do not believe the oligarchs: neither the Ukrainian, nor the Russian, nor the Russian Government, which confirms the leapfrog with Belarus, where Putin has already replaced the ambassador, who publicly opened the entire abscess.
    1. gennady_2 Offline gennady_2
      gennady_2 (gennady) 1 May 2019 11: 06
      0
      And the raven will not peck out the crow's eye.

      I agree that we also have an oligarchic system, but this proverb is definitely not suitable here. Between the oligarchs, the battle for death is going on, that in Russia in 2000, that in Ukraine in 2014 and now.
      1. Rusa Offline Rusa
        Rusa 1 May 2019 11: 53
        +2
        Very suitable. In the Russian environment, it is difficult to count on fairness, understanding and objectivity of judgments. Their ravens will always conspire, incl. and with the Ukrainian, because in the Russian Federation - everything, and the rest according to the law.
        1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
          Volkonsky (Vladimir) 1 May 2019 14: 11
          +1
          The oligarchy is the link between business and government. In the Russian Federation, business no longer affects power; on the contrary, this power crushes business under itself, twisting its hands. GDP was able to break the seven-boyars, now you are steered by bureaucracy. In Ukraine, the oligarchy still rules.
          1. Rusa Offline Rusa
            Rusa 1 May 2019 15: 05
            +3
            In Russia, the political power of the oligarchic type. It’s time to already know that.
            1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
              Volkonsky (Vladimir) 1 May 2019 15: 09
              +1
              look at the definition of the word oligarch, and then say which of them affects the Kremlin
              1. Rusa Offline Rusa
                Rusa 1 May 2019 15: 29
                +2
                Don't ask naive questions. You yourself know and understand everything perfectly. Gas and oil in the Russian Federation is not a panacea for all internal problems in the country, especially in regions where there are both oligarchs and businessmen among the governors. At the same time, every year there are more and more oligarchs, but this does not make it easier for the common people. The party in power is losing confidence.
                1. Master Offline Master
                  Master (Master) 2 May 2019 09: 16
                  0
                  Rusa
                  I must say thank you (small) to thieves and oligarchs for preserving the country in between periods.

                  He wanted a bite of inheritance
                  bring America and Russia together
                  but the attempt failed
                  thanks for trying

                  That is, thanks and goodbye. With the collapse of Ukraine, a mass exodus of liberals from Russia will begin. So be patient. Ukrainians suffer.
  • Vladai Offline Vladai
    Vladai (Vlad) 1 May 2019 16: 34
    0
    Vladimir, thanks. Everything is correctly written, albeit tough for the ears of dill and sympathizers.

    .spit Putin is Russian, women still give birth to women, and he is not responsible for the whole Russian world, he cares about the Russians, because he Director of the Russian Federation and not the Patriarch of All Russia ...

    So I'm trying to bring one compassionate one on the next branch of this site to this simple idea. Does not understand. Russia is obliged to all types.
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 1 May 2019 23: 33
      0
      I myself am from Ukraine. I, too, for the power of our common insult! The king should not be scattered like slaves and lands! Not state-owned it!
  • Oleg RB Offline Oleg RB
    Oleg RB (Oleg) 1 May 2019 16: 39
    -4
    Judging by the beginning and the number of letters - Volkonsky graphomania ....
    Tell me, is it worth reading, or as usual?
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 1 May 2019 23: 34
      0
      read the primer! there is less bukoff. forget about Volkonsky!
  • Master Offline Master
    Master (Master) 1 May 2019 19: 38
    +1
    All power is forced to look around at the fermentation of minds among the people, so that no solidarity arises and swallows it. The Ukrainian maydanut power with its foreign informational and psychological troops christened 10% of nationalists, 60% of pro-Russians, 30% of communists (led by oligarchs) of Ukrainian citizens.
    The power will not stand the blow of the pipe against the communists. Hungarians immediately came running shouting: "Let's divide!"

    Hit the rally on sloppiness.
    1. Master Offline Master
      Master (Master) 2 May 2019 09: 09
      +1
      Impatient Hungarians are already asking to divide Ukraine. No, wait like everyone else - the Czechs, Poles, Romanians, etc. Section waiting for 90% of Ukrainians. For the rest, it will be a tragedy. Sorry for them, but the castle of lies on the sand is unstable.
  • commbatant Offline commbatant
    commbatant (Sergei) 2 May 2019 00: 19
    +1
    In addition to ukro-GTS, there is no one else to pump this volume, and given the depletion of its own fields (in Norway and the Netherlands), the EU’s demand for Russian gas next year will grow by another 20 billion cubic meters. Those. hypothetical delta increases to 30 already!

    Maybe that's why the Russian Federation is building gas carriers and equipping the NSR ...
    1. Volkonsky Online Volkonsky
      Volkonsky (Vladimir) 2 May 2019 02: 44
      0
      No, they are aimed at the Southeast Asian market, gas there is more expensive than in the EU. SVP will work, but only towards SEA. Although they can throw to the geyropeytsam, but the pipe is still cheaper. Sense then geyrop?
      1. commbatant Offline commbatant
        commbatant (Sergei) 3 May 2019 15: 01
        +1
        Quote: Volkonsky
        Sense then geyrop?

        To cut the delta ....
        Although a conspiracy is possible between the Russian Federation and the USA on the redistribution of the gas market in the EU ....
  • bayram Offline bayram
    bayram (Vladimir) 31 March 2020 09: 38
    0
    Benny somehow briskly ignores the question of the formation of a new (third) state in Ukraine, and no one else, like Israel, is forming. New Israel And nothing explodes? And no third world? Or is he like - not in the know .. Like, it’s not Russia, is it possible?
  • vik669 Offline vik669
    vik669 (vik669) 31 May 2020 15: 16
    0
    Laughs the one who laughs without consequences!