On the edge of the abyss: The global economy will collapse at any moment
Danish SaxoBank once again “pleased” the world community with yet another economic prediction. According to his experts, global growth economicsmost likely, has already reached its maximum values, which means that further upward movement is no longer possible.
And if at the end of last year, analysts talked about a global increase in basic economic indicators, now, after only a few months, pessimism comes through in their statements: the concept of growth turned out to be erroneous. And instead of it, there is a clear slowdown, which, according to the bank’s specialists, could result in the same sharp decline in markets that was observed in 2008. As evidence, they cite the negative trend that has now arisen in China, the United States and the EU countries.
The Chinese economy slowed its climb due to a decrease in domestic government lending, which fell by 2,11%. Despite the fact that this process was planned in advance and carefully controlled by the government, it can have a negative impact on foreign markets. In addition, it adds fuel to the fire and the so-called trade war with the States.
By the way, the situation in the United States is also not very happy. Trump's tax initiatives are unlikely to cause a boom, rather the opposite: the retail sector has already declined and will not recover in the near future. Production growth under such conditions is also unlikely.
The eurozone is not encouraging either. The volume of European exports, on which, according to bank analysts, the welfare of the European Union largely depends on, remains rather low. Export growth of countries such as Italy and Spain does not cause any enthusiasm, since the share of their imports has increased even more. At the same time, the foreign trade deficit of Spain grew to 31%, which can hardly be called a positive factor.
The conclusion of the experts is not encouraging: the world economy is still afloat, but one wrong step is enough for some of the key players and the markets will collapse with a bang. Such a step, for example, may be the decision of China to suspend the work of the Chinese unit of Boeing as part of a trade war with Trump. The likelihood of such an event is quite high.
In fairness, we must admit that the forecasts of the Danish bank are not always true. So, his experts predicted a default in Russia in 2015. And in 2016, they predicted an increase in oil prices to $ 100 per barrel, Brazil's unprecedented economic growth after the Rio de Janeiro Olympics and the complete defeat of Trump in the US presidential election. As we now know, none of the above has happened.
Of course, you should not relax. Nobody forbids hoping for the best, however, given the complex and unpredictable world we live in, we must always be prepared for the worst.
And if at the end of last year, analysts talked about a global increase in basic economic indicators, now, after only a few months, pessimism comes through in their statements: the concept of growth turned out to be erroneous. And instead of it, there is a clear slowdown, which, according to the bank’s specialists, could result in the same sharp decline in markets that was observed in 2008. As evidence, they cite the negative trend that has now arisen in China, the United States and the EU countries.
The Chinese economy slowed its climb due to a decrease in domestic government lending, which fell by 2,11%. Despite the fact that this process was planned in advance and carefully controlled by the government, it can have a negative impact on foreign markets. In addition, it adds fuel to the fire and the so-called trade war with the States.
By the way, the situation in the United States is also not very happy. Trump's tax initiatives are unlikely to cause a boom, rather the opposite: the retail sector has already declined and will not recover in the near future. Production growth under such conditions is also unlikely.
The eurozone is not encouraging either. The volume of European exports, on which, according to bank analysts, the welfare of the European Union largely depends on, remains rather low. Export growth of countries such as Italy and Spain does not cause any enthusiasm, since the share of their imports has increased even more. At the same time, the foreign trade deficit of Spain grew to 31%, which can hardly be called a positive factor.
The conclusion of the experts is not encouraging: the world economy is still afloat, but one wrong step is enough for some of the key players and the markets will collapse with a bang. Such a step, for example, may be the decision of China to suspend the work of the Chinese unit of Boeing as part of a trade war with Trump. The likelihood of such an event is quite high.
In fairness, we must admit that the forecasts of the Danish bank are not always true. So, his experts predicted a default in Russia in 2015. And in 2016, they predicted an increase in oil prices to $ 100 per barrel, Brazil's unprecedented economic growth after the Rio de Janeiro Olympics and the complete defeat of Trump in the US presidential election. As we now know, none of the above has happened.
Of course, you should not relax. Nobody forbids hoping for the best, however, given the complex and unpredictable world we live in, we must always be prepared for the worst.
Information