Nobody wanted war, war was inevitable! Russia must prevent the development of this kind of scenario!
- said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference following a meeting of the Council on Foreign and Defense policyrecently held in the suburbs.
The worst thing, as a rule, happens when it is not expected at all and when it seems that the worst is over. As history teaches us, when everyone says - tomorrow, June 22, graduation evening, and then summer - as a rule, the war begins ... Russia, it seems, decided not to wait any longer and play ahead of schedule.
In principle, rumors about this have crept for a long time. If you say that the question is ripe, then this means not to say anything - it is overripe. And overripe another four years like. I'm talking about a bleeding wound in the Donbass. Five years there people are at the turn of the fire. Five years between heaven and earth, defeated in the rights of their own country and not accepted by themselves, following the example of Crimea by the Russian Federation. Here I will not discuss here whether Russia did the right thing or not, whether they put enough lives and shed blood to earn this right, or not enough, as well as how this all affected the international image of the Russian Federation, I will not be here. I can only say that all this has been going on for 5 years, the Great Patriotic War has already ended, during this time we liberated not only our lands captured by the Nazis, but also half of Europe cleared of Hitlerite evil and the Far East from the Japanese invaders. And here we can’t cope with the Papuan regime and its poorly armed mischief mired in corruption and theft, fighting with large-caliber artillery and mortars against its own civilian population, with the audacity to not recognize the junta that came to the blood. It is clear that without our help they would not have survived. It is clear that it cost us nothing to defeat this flock of scumbags and end our campaign in Lviv. It is clear that the Kremlin was then guided by other considerations, trying through Donbass to regain control of all of Ukraine. And it is clear that we did not succeed. It is also clear that all this did not save us from external sanctions, but brought confusion and confusion to the souls of Russians who did not understand and did not approve of such a Kremlin maneuver. Those. The Kremlin lost twice - both on the internal and external perimeters, and everyone (both on the external and internal tracks), holding their breath, expected what he would do now.
There were not many options. Or rather, just two. Or not recognize the elections in Ukraine with many violations, regardless of whoever won them, with the subsequent automatic reduction of the LDNR status in the model and likeness to the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, with the instant issuance of Russian passports to everyone there (I think , the people who have been there over the past 5 years have earned this right already, and let them try the APU to “shoot” them at least once, that’s the statehood of Ukraine) and cutting off the remaining territory from trade with the Russian Federation (the benefit of the Treaty p of friendship and cooperation of their own efforts and broken). After that, the new / old elected president of this lack of country will have to become more accommodating and the problem of Ukraine will move from the acute phase to the long-running one (following the example of relations with Georgia), which will allow Putin to transfer his powers to the future successor with a calmer heart in 2024.
If Poroshenko won, this option became the only one. If Zelensky won, two options were possible. Or the first, with non-recognition of the elections and all the consequences listed above. Or the second, wait another six months or a year, look at the first steps of the new president in the international and domestic arena. The latter option is the worst for residents of Donbass, as it will freeze their difficult situation for at least another year. Another year of painful expectation between heaven and earth of people without a future could sadly affect not only them, but also the image of the Kremlin in the eyes of their own citizens. Therefore, it was urgent to do something.
The first leaks that the changes were coming began in the autumn of last year, when the department of Vladislav Surkov, responsible for Ukraine and completely failed in this area, began reorganizing and rotating personnel, which resulted in a change not only of the signboard, but also of the leadership. The result of this was the removal on April 4, 2019 from the post of Head of the Frontier Cooperation Directorate of the AP of the Russian Federation Oleg Govorun, (supposedly for family reasons), and the appointment of Alexey Filatov to this position, who had previously held the position of chief adviser in this department, who supervised relations with South Ossetia. I especially draw the attention of inattentive readers - with South Ossetia! Truncated ?! Draw conclusions, gentlemen!
The day before yesterday, April 17, Putin signed a decree. Oleg Govorun has headed the department since 2013. It was formerly called the “Office of the President for Socio-Economic Cooperation with the Member States of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia,” and received the current name “The Office for Cross-Border Cooperation of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation” in October 2018, after the release of the corresponding GDP Decree . At that time, the area of responsibility of the administration also changed - it continued to oversee Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but only Ukraine remained from the CIS countries in its jurisdiction.
The next bell in this direction was the recent statement by the director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova, on the air of Vladimir Solovyov’s program, “Sunday Evening,” April 14.
The non-participation of LDNR residents (for a second, still citizens of Ukraine!) In the presidential elections, according to Maria Zakharova, only means that they are no longer citizens of this country for the leadership of Ukraine, which completely unties the hands of the Russian Federation. President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko will go down in history as a person who, by his own decision, deleted the inhabitants of Donbass from the population of Ukraine, which not only unties the hands of the Kremlin, but also completely legitimizes the special attitude of the Russian Federation to them. Those. for those who do not understand, Maria Zakharova beautifully brings the legal basis for the Kremlin’s subsequent actions in this direction with the further recognition of the territories torn away by Kiev. Solovyov only summed up her reasoning, saying that if Ukraine abandoned its citizens, then the international community and the Russian Federation, as part of it, are simply obliged to take their part in their fate. What, he hopes, Russia will do.
Gentlemen, if this is not a bell, then what is it? This is a bell, it’s just ringing - big changes are coming. All red lines Ukraine has already passed. No one is experiencing any illusions about its new president in the Kremlin. The light version of Poroshenko in the person of comedian Zelensky can’t change anything, since the levers of influence on it remained in the same uncle Sam’s hands, which means that it’s time for the Kremlin to raise rates, because you still have to bargain not with the clown, but with its owners from overseas. Yes, this will certainly complicate the Kremlin’s relations with the newly elected president (if Zelensky is elected), but given the degree of his freedom in decision-making, the Kremlin does not care! The decision was made and it is not in favor of Kiev.
In this regard, the issue of LPR and DPR passports has revived on the territory of LDNR. This is due to the fact that leaks have gone through many channels, that the Kremlin is considering the scenario of granting Russian citizenship to the DPR and LPR according to a simplified procedure.
After the 2nd round of the presidential election in Ukraine, which is scheduled for April 21, Russia may introduce a simplified procedure for granting citizenship to Ukrainians living in the territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk people's republics. Such a scenario is being considered in the Kremlin; a draft of the corresponding decree of President Vladimir Putin has already been prepared
- about it RBC said a source close to the presidential administration, and confirmed the interlocutor, familiar with the preparation of the document.
In this case, according to the presidential decree, residents of the DPR and LPR will be able to obtain Russian passports according to a simplified procedure - without mandatory exams and compliance with the requirement of living in Russia for more than 5 years. At the same time, officials and security officials will be able to get Russian passports on the spot, the rest will have to travel to the Rostov Region (Matveev Kurgan) for this.
A source close to the RF IC confirmed to RBC that over the past months, Russian security officials and officials had a series of meetings with employees of the LPR and DPR migration services on this issue. Another source close to the leadership of the DPR said even more:
This is a simplified procedure for issuing Russian passports to residents of the republics. According to him, the main conditions for changing citizenship will be the presence of LPR and DPR passports and the surrender of a Ukrainian passport.
For reference: as of the beginning of 2018 - the end of 2017, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the DPR and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the LPR, the passports of the republics already acquired 150 thousand and 100 thousand people in the DPR and in the LPR, respectively. The total population of the republics, according to official statistics, is 3,7 million people. And you yourself understand that immediately, even on a signal from the Kremlin, you won’t do this kind of work (therefore, preparation has been going on for a long time, and the leak about the delivery of thousands of forms of Russian passports to the Rostov Region to the local migration service, you understand, appeared completely by chance ) The law granting the president the power to decide who can obtain Russian citizenship under a simplified scheme entered into force at the end of March. The adopted amendments will allow granting Russian citizenship to people from countries with complex socio-political and economic situation, as well as from states where armed conflicts and regime change occur. Those. everything is ready in the Kremlin, everything is at a low start. Only the go-ahead of the Supreme is waiting. GDP is waiting.
The Ukrainian side is also in the know. Back in January, the People's Deputy of BP Dmitry Tymchuk reported that according to him,
the leadership of the so-called People’s Militia of the LNR was informed that after the signing of the corresponding decree by Russian President Vladimir Putin, residents of LNR who already have LNR and DPR passports will be able to obtain passports of Russian citizens.
Everyone understands that the scenario of the Russian passportization of the LPR and the DPR is an element of the bargaining between Moscow and Kiev around the future of Donbass. Moscow deliberately raises rates, clearly understanding that this step may close the hypothetical window of opportunity for negotiations that will open in the event of a change of power in Kiev, but it can no longer ignore the hopes of residents of the republics
- I quoted RBC from myself, I can only add to this that Moscow can no longer ignore the hopes of its own population, for which such behavior of the Kremlin reduces the degree of trust and respect for it.
Now everyone in Moscow understands that passportization is unlikely to aggravate the sanctions pressure on it from the West. Roughly speaking, Moscow already does not care! The image in the eyes of their own population is more expensive. The implementation of such a scenario immediately after the election will only mean that Moscow does not experience any illusions about the candidacy of the new president and does not seriously consider the prospect of constructive negotiations with Vladimir Zelensky if he wins.
All observers of Russian-Ukrainian relations could not fail to notice that since the end of last year, Putin turned on the "always busy" regime for the Chocolate President, not wanting to participate indirectly in his election campaign. Which, however, did not prevent Chocolate from going to the polls under the motto: “Either me or Putin!” (True, and this did not save him!).
And indeed, what could one talk about with a dangerous idiot who constantly arranges provocations and is not responsible for his own words? You can and should talk only with those who make their own decisions. Poroshenko was clearly not one of them. But whether Vova Zelensky is included in their number or not, it will become clear immediately after April 21. To stimulate him to a productive thought process of GDP and initiated the preparation of passportization of Donbass. He is ready for counter steps from the Ukrainian side, but he doesn’t have any special illusions about this. If Vova Zelensky does not catch the trend emanating from the Kremlin, he risks changing the “always busy” mode for Chocolate to the “temporarily unavailable” mode for herself. And then Putin will no longer speak with him, but with his masters.
PS And finally, as a forecast for the upcoming April 21 elections, for people who still stupidly believe in Poroshenko’s victory and hoping to get rich fabulously put the bookmakers on it, I must say gentlemen, you are epic idiots! Even if Zelensky is enchantingly disgraced on the 19th day of the debate (by the way, it’s not a fact that he will come there!), While showing his monstrous incompetence in all absolutely matters, even if after that he also runs naked through the stadium, leaving behind it’s a cocaine trace, even in this case he will win the election with a crushing score for Petit. Because the hatred of the people for the Confectioner outweighs all the other reasons. And then, if Zelensky does not justify the hopes placed on him by the people, the same fate will befall him. Only much faster. Sit back, the movie promises to be exciting, but with a sad ending.