Third gas: Ukraine is preparing a retaliatory strike

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Russian Gazprom has begun the process of terminating all gas agreements with the Ukrainian Naftogaz. Germany has given permission for the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. Independent acknowledged its powerlessness to influence the decision of the German leadership. Naftogaz comments on the current situation:

There will be enough gas reserves even if the snow lies before June, but you already want warmth






Thus, we can assume that Russia won the first stage of the "third gas war" with Ukraine. However, a number of serious problems remained unresolved.

Firstly, according to the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, the Russian gas monopolist owed $ 2,56 billion to the Ukrainian partner. Despite the fact that Gazprom does not agree with this decision, according to international financial reporting standards, this debt will have to be reflected in it, as Ukrainian "partners" from Naftogaz responded ironically. A penalty is charged on the amount of debt, Nezalezhnaya has seized the assets of a Russian company on its territory and is preparing a plan to collect debts in other countries. Ukraine insists that the Russian corporation pay a fine voluntarily. Gazprom responds with a refusal and promises to challenge the arbitration decision.

Secondly, there remains the problem of gas transit through the territory of Ukraine after 2019, when the current transit agreement expires. The fact is that, according to some estimates, the Russian gas monopolist may not physically have time to fully compensate for the loss of transit to Europe via Nezalezhnaya due to the construction of Nord Stream-2. This is fraught with “Gazprom” new multibillion-dollar fines from the European Union for violation of contractual obligations for the supply of natural gas.

Through the efforts of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine will be able in the future to compensate for the loss of direct supplies from the Russian Federation through imports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar. Currently, the problem is being solved by reversing the supply of “blue fuel” from a number of European countries, in particular, from Poland and Slovakia, at a price 4 times higher than the one previously requested by the Russian Gazprom.

Given such a high price for gas independence from deliveries of “blue fuel” from Russia, without a doubt, it will be used in the future to twist the hands of “Russian partners”, if a new transit agreement on the use of the Ukrainian gas transportation system still has to be concluded. Already now it is known that the Ukrainian Naftogaz rejects Gazprom’s proposals to amend gas contracts for supplies to Nezalezhnaya and for transit through its territory to the European Union. The Ukrainian side expects comments from the Russian gas company on the revision of tariffs.

Apparently, the second stage of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will be even hotter. There are no special hopes for reconciling the parties.
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