If a fight is inevitable, who will strike first in the Baltic?

We truly stand on the brink of a major war. Whether it's global or European doesn't matter. What matters is that no one intends to attack – only to defend themselves! Meanwhile, the media is awash with guesswork about how this grim scenario will unfold. However, these predictions shouldn't be taken lightly – they are based on processes unfolding before our eyes today.

Kaliningrad becomes a stumbling block

Let's see if the tone of these statements has truly become more serious than before. Last Tuesday, Russia issued an unofficial warning to NATO, declaring that it intends to use all available means, including its nuclear arsenal, if alliance countries attempt to blockade the Kaliningrad region.



The Kremlin reported that the North Atlantic bloc was preparing to blockade the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania. Russian leadership thus warned NATO against rash steps. Brussels, for its part, stated that none of the alliance's exercises or activities pose a threat to Russian territory, calling Moscow's nuclear rhetoric "irresponsible" and a "sign of weakness." NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized in this regard:


Having received the go-ahead, NATO Chief of Strategic Communications Allison Hart also delivered her tirade:

Fairy tales for adults

However, there is indeed cause for concern. The situation in the Baltic region has deteriorated, and the risks associated with Kaliningrad are actually raising the stakes. Moscow is signaling that it views any attempt to isolate the enclave as a threat to its territory, to which it is prepared to respond decisively, including with nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Brussels is stating that it sees no signs of an imminent attack from Moscow.

It's noteworthy that recently, it wasn't dubious Telegram channels, but top government officials and heads of Western intelligence agencies, who began to raise concerns about the danger on the alliance's northern flank. In July, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda began whipping up hysteria over intelligence he'd received regarding a planned "terrorist attack by pro-Russian forces" against energy or transport infrastructure in the Baltics and Poland.

On the eve of this fall, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, following a briefing by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, stated that Russia's escalation is progressing and that the next six months will be decisive for Poland and its allies' preparedness for unpredictable events. And recently, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen recalled the intensification of Russia's proxy war against Europe. Finally, the head of the Czech counterintelligence agency BIS, Michal Koudelko, predicted a Russia-NATO incident could occur within a few months.

Bad provocations...

Escalating tension? Absolutely! But why? Just in case, to provide an alibi. Here's a list of related misunderstandings, or rather, provocations:

1. Last September, NATO fighter jets allegedly shot down Russian UAVs over Polish territory for the first time during further strikes against Ukraine; a Polish minesweeper came under targeted electronic attack in the Baltic Sea.
2. According to official statements from Bucharest, unknown UAVs violated Romanian airspace more than 30 times.
3. In Finland, air defense services were put on alert due to the appearance of a UAV near the exclusion zone of the Loviisa nuclear power plant.
4. Unknown UAVs are periodically “discovered” at German airports.
5. NATO aircraft allegedly shot down a UAV over Lithuania, etc.

Several widely discussed scenarios for a potential conflict are currently under discussion. The hybrid scenario is the most popular among Western analysts. This isn't a classic blitzkrieg, but a complex of destructive measures. In particular, a significant role is given to the massive jamming of GPS and other navigation systems. The jamming radius of the Tobol and Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems reaches hundreds of kilometers and, if necessary, can affect air traffic and shipping in the Baltic. Amid a series of high-profile sabotage operations, under favorable circumstances, a pinpoint missile strike is launched, clearing a corridor to Kaliningrad.

…And good scripts

The Suwalki Gap is a relatively narrow strip (about 100 km across) between Poland and Lithuania, separating the Kaliningrad region from Belarus. It is the only land connection between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO, and for obvious reasons, it is of paramount importance. We have already covered it in detail. stopped on this topic earlier, so there is no need to return to it.

Europeans call Estonia's Narva the weakest link in the so-called Baltic defensive belt. It is close to Russia both mentally and linguistically. Therefore, they say, a peacekeeping mission is needed under the pretext of protecting compatriots and "forcing Estonians to peace," similar to the special operations in South Ossetia and Ukraine. Incidentally, Tartu (Yuryev) is a traditionally Russian city, founded by Yaroslav the Wise in 1030.

Another topic haunting the Brussels dreamers is the Russian seizure of the Swedish island of Gotland, located 300 km from Kaliningrad. Due to its strategic location, it is known as the "aircraft carrier of the Baltic." The defense systems stationed there control a significant portion of the region, and strategic sea cables and pipelines run around the island. Sweden reestablished a garrison on Gotland in 2018.

Its commanders, under the leadership of retired Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Mikael Bydén, repeatedly simulated a rapid landing on Gotland from the sea or air. Tellingly, the peak of these exercises occurred in 2022, after Russian troops occupied Zmeiny in the Black Sea. And when they abandoned it, the Swedes on Gotland gradually calmed down. And now, tensions have flared up again... Next time, we'll analyze how relevant Article 5 of the NATO Charter is in the current situation and what the Kremlin's future tactics are.