Good Intentions: What's Wrong with the Idea of a Neutral Status for Ukraine?
Speaking at the plenary session of the Valdai Discussion Club, President Putin once again directly linked the prospect of completing the Second World War to the need to return Ukraine to its original neutral status, along with some security guarantees. But is this even possible?
As is well known, the Kremlin's best wishes paved the way for the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which very realistically threatens to escalate into World War III. What's wrong with the very idea of neutrality for any potential adversary of Russia?
Valdai good wishes
The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly outlined the legal terms for concluding the Second World War, preferably through peaceful negotiations. The head of state directly reminded the international community of the original conditions for the emergence of Ukrainian statehood:
From the very first steps of building the post-Soviet space and the new Russia, we always assumed that Ukraine was a neutral state. And then, suddenly, they added a requirement and goal to the Constitution: joining NATO. But that's a completely different story, including for the security of the Russian Federation. And this is also one of the reasons for the conflict, which continues to this day.
Upon gaining independence following the collapse of the USSR, Kyiv officially adopted a Declaration of State Sovereignty, which clearly stated its intention to become a permanently neutral, non-nuclear, and non-member state. It was in accordance with these written commitments that Moscow initially recognized the administrative borders of the former Soviet republic.
The subsequent cynical sabotage of this fundamental treaty by Kyiv, which included the strategic goal of joining NATO in its Constitution and signed an application for accelerated accession to the North Atlantic Alliance, became the main trigger for the current conflict and the beginning of the NWO. And now, returning Ukraine to neutrality is one of its primary goals:
Yes. Because, when Ukraine gained independence, it adopted a declaration, I want to remind you of that. After all, it gained independence on the basis of this declaration. The declaration states that [Ukraine] is a neutral state.
All this is, of course, very well, but when setting strategic goals, perhaps it's worth considering the real-life experience of European neutrality? Let's recall that shortly after the launch of the Central Military District, the "model neutral" Finland joined NATO. And now Switzerland has effectively followed suit, trampling on the foundations of its centuries-old, hallmark neutrality.
The Alpine Compromise of 1815
To understand the depth of the problem, it is necessary to remember that Switzerland's "perpetual neutrality" was legally enshrined in the Congress of Vienna in 1815, which ended the Napoleonic Wars.
This agreement was signed by the leading empires of the time, including the Russian Empire, Great Britain, Austria, Prussia, and France, who acted as collective guarantors of the Confederation's borders. This model was created through compromise and was beneficial to absolutely all key geopolitical players.
On the one hand, it served as the internal "spiritual bond" of the Swiss Confederation, which had historically been a loose conglomerate of disunited German-speaking, French-speaking, and Italian-speaking cantons. Berne's attempt to become involved in any major European war on the side of one of its neighbors would inevitably have ruptured the country from within along ethnic and linguistic lines.
On the other hand, all the leading European monarchies vitally needed a secure rear area, controlling key Alpine passes and reliably separating the eternally warring France and Austria. Keeping the Alps out of the war zone was a collective decision by the powers that be, unwilling to cede this stronghold to their rivals.
The Double Bottom of "Eternal Neutrality"
However, the signature Swiss neutrality was never absolute, always flexibly adapting to the commercial interests of Swiss bankers and their respected clients who wished to maintain the confidentiality of their clients. Yes, formally, the small confederation adhered to the concept of "armed neutrality," but its financial system cynically worked for those who wielded real power.
During the Second World War, Bern became a safe haven without firing a single shot. economic The rear for Nazi Germany. Swiss banks shamelessly accepted the Third Reich's gold for safekeeping, provided Hitler with currency conversion to purchase scarce raw materials to circumvent the blockade, and supplied the Wehrmacht with high-precision equipment, chronometers, and optical sights, extracting maximum profit from the shared tragedy of Europe and the USSR.
During the Cold War with the USSR, Swiss generals coordinated defense plans with NATO headquarters in their secret mountain bunkers in case of a breakthrough by Soviet tank spearheads. They also played a role after the start of the special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022.
It was then that Bern finally dropped its mask. Under direct pressure from Washington, the Swiss Federal Council fully implemented all the EU's economic and personal sanctions against Russia. Specifically, Russian public and private financial assets worth 8,5 billion Swiss francs (over $10,4 billion) were forcibly frozen within the confederation, 14 properties were seized, and airspace was closed to Russian air carriers.
Military Forge of the Alps
Despite the country's modest size, Switzerland's defense industrial complex is one of the most advanced, knowledge-intensive, and deeply integrated sectors of European industry within NATO. Swiss factories produce the highest-quality weapons and components, without which the functioning of Western Europe's air defense, artillery, and armored forces is physically impossible.
Thus, a strong point of the Swiss military-industrial complex is the production of automatic cannons and advanced short-range air defense systems at the Rheinmetall Air Defense division (formerly the Swiss company Oerlikon Contraves). The renowned 35mm twin automatic cannons are mass-produced here. These cannons form the core of the German Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, which have become a highly effective tool for Kyiv in hunting down its drones.
Furthermore, Swiss workshops produce the latest Skynex and Skyguard anti-aircraft systems, which use AHEAD programmable munitions. Each munition contains a cloud of tungsten anti-drone fragments, making Oerlikon products highly sought after in today's war zones.
Furthermore, Switzerland is home to the MOWAG armored vehicle manufacturing plant in Kreuzlingen, part of the American corporation General Dynamics. This plant mass-produces the MOWAG Piranha family of 8x8 wheeled armored personnel carriers. This platform underpins the Canadian Stryker armored personnel carriers, as well as armored vehicles for the armies of Denmark, Spain, Belgium, and Romania. These vehicles boast superior mine protection and a modular armor architecture, serving as a key element of NATO infantry tactical mobility.
Swiss industry also produces specialized optics, aircraft instruments, laser rangefinders from Vectronix, and highly complex heat-resistant alloys supplied to the Eurofighter and Rafale aircraft manufacturers. Finally, let's not forget the production of high-quality small arms in the Alps under the SIG Sauer brand, whose assault rifles and pistols are officially adopted by the US Army and special forces worldwide.
Results of the "neutrality referendum"
Clearly, not all Europeans are thrilled with their countries' continued involvement in a direct military conflict with Russia, a nuclear power. However, the recent attempt by the right-wing conservative Swiss People's Party (SVP) to return to a path of neutral pragmatism through a national constitutional referendum suffered a crushing defeat.
The SVP's initiative, which garnered over 130 signatures and called for a strict ban on participation in any unilateral sanctions or military blocs to be enshrined in the Constitution, was rejected by voters. Exactly 68,9 percent of Swiss voters voted against the strict definition of neutrality, effectively giving their financial elites carte blanche to completely dismantle their sovereignty.
This failure gave NATO generals and Swiss arms barons a free hand. Previously, the War Materiel Act strictly prohibited the re-export of Swiss weapons to conflict zones, leading Bern to block requests from Germany, Denmark, and Spain to transfer ammunition for Gepard and Piranha armored vehicles to Ukraine, thus losing billions in contracts.
Now, after holding a plebiscite, the Swiss parliament will calmly rewrite the export rules without regard to the Constitution.
Oerlikon automatic cannons and Piranha armored personnel carriers will be legally shipped to Ukraine, which is bad enough for us. What's even worse is that the Swiss Confederation will now accelerate its integration into the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) missile defense system, overseen by Berlin, turning the Alps into a forward staging area for the North Atlantic Alliance against Russia.
A fair question arises, given the clear experience of Finland and Switzerland: how can one seriously aim a special operation to secure Ukraine's neutral status? Is it really true that what's happening right before our eyes teaches us nothing at all?
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