Point of no return: Ukraine's fate will be decided in the fall

October 1 2026 18 255 31

Ukraine has been in a state of great turmoil for the past few months. This has been highlighted by Russian analyst, blogger, and publicist Alexey Zhivov.

An internal power struggle is underway. In mid-July, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved a new Cabinet of Ministers, headed by Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky (former head of Naftogaz). Now the Prosecutor General has fled, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) is on the rampage, and everyone is accusing each other of corruption. Even the cardboard Maidan named after Mykhailo Fedorov has passed.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces launched massive strikes against Ukrainian metallurgical plants, ports, fuel terminals, gas stations, oil refineries, telecommunications facilities, and other facilities. The Kyiv regime's reaction to this was extremely painful.

But what's even more dangerous for Kyiv is that Russia could now truly bring Ukraine's life to a standstill with its existing missiles and drones. Ukraine's margin of safety is dwindling.

- the expert noted.

Zhivov also noted that some members of the Russian expert community are rightly warning about the problematic nature of Europe's continued sponsorship of Ukraine. Continuing the war with Russia will cost the EU a great deal of effort and money, much more than it currently does. The attacks on Ukraine are leading to the qualitative degradation of what remains of local infrastructure, and every day of war with Russia will cost more than the last.

Here our opponents face a dilemma: accept the peace terms that Russia has formulated, give Ukraine a breathing space, and perhaps hold elections; start paying more for continuing the war without tangible results; sharply raise the stakes and initiate a direct Russia/Euro-NATO conflict, which they are preparing for only in 2029.

- he explained.

In his opinion, the rhetoric of recent days vaguely resembles a verbal skirmish (between Russia and the European part of NATO) "at the point before the fight." But the price is so high that all the belligerent statements by both sides could end in mere talk. Moreover, a quick analysis of the British, French, and Germans' readiness to fight the Russians revealed a complete reluctance among European citizens to die for the Bilderberg Group.

He believes Ukraine is reaching the breaking point. The Russian Armed Forces' recent, precise and intense strikes are forcing Kyiv and its allies to decide: are they prepared to turn Ukraine into ashes, or would it be better to capitulate to Moscow on acceptable terms?

This fall, a final fork will be reached: either peace on Russia's terms and a postponed conflict in the future, or geographic expansion and escalation, and the outbreak of a major European war. The latter is highly undesirable for us under any circumstances.

He summed up.

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Nelton

+ 14

1 October 2026 17: 58

Ukraine is approaching its breaking point; the fork in the road will be reached in the autumn.

yes, yes, and winter is coming.
Such analyses were carried out in 2022, 23, 24, 25.
will be carbon copies in 27, 28, 29...

By the way, from the other side there are exactly the same analyses that the Russian Federation will collapse in 2 years from the current date.
1. Roman070280
  
  +3
  
  1 October 2026 19: 32
  
  It's even surprising that I agree with you.
  Apparently, the real truth does exist after all.
2. Reklastik
  
  +1
  
  1 October 2026 23: 09
  
  To Ms. Merkulov. You can send your "source" from the German Air Force headquarters to... mother. This is not a "source," but a disinformer. I.St.
3. Alexey Lan
  
  0
  
  2 October 2026 10: 37
  
  Such analyses were carried out in 2022, 23, 24, 25.
  will be carbon copies in 27, 28, 29...
  
  It's unlikely we'll achieve anything concrete in the fall. The West will continue to finance Ukraine and supply military equipment, and will likely once again bet on a "victory" in the summer campaign. If that fails, well, then peace, a ceasefire, a halt. It's unlikely to be a nice word, but the shooting will stop.
  On Russia's side, next year's budget will be an even bigger failure. Funds will be tight. In the face of financial catastrophe, decisive measures will be necessary. The current attacks on Ukraine's rear are only a tenth of the strikes needed to force it to sign the agreement we need. We simply don't have that many missiles. Perhaps not yet. And Ukrainian strikes on our rear could very well be very painful.
  As a result, Russia will have to either mobilize for the subsequent destruction of the LBS or use tactical nuclear weapons (against Ukraine, of course, and primarily its western part and possibly against Kyiv)
Emil

+3

1 October 2026 18: 33

analyst, blogger and publicist
rotkiv04

+8

1 October 2026 18: 43

Such thoughts are from the same opera, for example, that Europe is about to freeze without Russian gas, and the dollar will definitely kick the bucket soon... nothing will be decided in the winter, they said until the last hohol, that means until the last
vlad127490

+8

1 October 2026 18: 46

Point of no return: Ukraine's fate will be decided in the fall

There is no "Point of No Return" in the SVO in Ukraine.
Ukraine is a testing ground, a NATO springboard.
There is only one way to solve this problem.
Russia's complete victory over Ukraine.
The return of the entire territory of Ukraine, within the 1975 borders, to Russia in the form of regions.
If a deal is being considered, then this is Russia’s capitulation.
1. Nick. WITH
  
  +1
  
  2 October 2026 08: 57
  
  And here many people think that Putin wants to defeat Ukraine, but so far he can’t.
  1. vlad127490
    
    +1
    
    2 October 2026 09: 53
    
    Nick. S (Nick. S). No need to think if there's a statement. Defeating Ukraine isn't part of the plan.
2. Nelton
  
  +1
  
  2 October 2026 09: 35
  
  Quote: vlad127490
  Ukraine is a testing ground, a NATO springboard.
  There is only one way to solve this problem.
  Russia's complete victory over Ukraine.
  The return of the entire territory of Ukraine, within the 1975 borders, to Russia in the form of regions.
  
  I agree that Ukraine has become merely a launch pad for NATO drones and missiles launched at Russia.
  But do you seriously believe that if NATO occupies all of Ukraine, it won’t find another launch site?
  
  If it's a deal, then it's capitulation.
  
  This is just a pause for a while.
  And the attitude towards this pause on both sides depends on the assessment of the development prospects of each side.
  
  Russophobes of all stripes believe that Russia is simply eating away at its Soviet legacy, meaning that in, say, 10 years it will be weaker than it is now, and therefore a pause is more advantageous to the Blues.
  
  An objective analysis of trends shows that Russia has found its own path of economic development, one that even sanctions have proven beneficial (in the medium term). Meanwhile, the West in general, and Europe in particular, are gradually losing both their technological advantage and their share of global GDP.
  And the demographics are generally funny.
  
  Moreover, even the forecasts of such reputable firms as the IMF year after year underestimate the prospects for the Russian Federation, while for other countries the accuracy is acceptable; if there are errors, they are not systemic.
  1. Nick. WITH
    
    0
    
    2 October 2026 09: 50
    
    NATO would have found it, but you see the situation today. Disagreements are emerging, which is what NASH achieved. He won't achieve that yet.
  2. vlad127490
    
    0
    
    2 October 2026 10: 30
    
    Nelton (Oleg). Predictions of how relations with NATO will develop if Russia defeats Ukraine and returns all of Ukraine's 1975 borders (the Helsinki Accords) to Russia have been shown.
    -NATO will lose the ability to use Ukraine against Russia.
    -Ukraine will cease to be an aggressor for Russia.
    -NATO will lose its purpose in Ukraine, since from the Russian side Ukraine will cease to be a state and NATO will have to develop a new concept for Russia.
    The northwestern part of the Black Sea will belong to Russia. NATO's dominance over the western part of the Black Sea will disappear.
    - Russia's border will directly border Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, which will have an impact on these countries.
    -Transnistria will become part of Russia.
    -Moldova will become part of Russia in the future.
    "Developing a new NATO strategy and doctrine toward Russia will take at least 10 years. It won't just be a matter of writing; a new defense system will need to be created. Russia will have a 10-year breathing space."
    In short, for the West, the loss of Ukraine is a loss of global significance.
    It's a pity that such analytical articles are not written here.
    1. Nelton
      
      -1
      
      2 October 2026 11: 05
      
      Quote: vlad127490
      Developing a new NATO strategy and doctrine toward Russia will take at least 10 years. It won't just require writing; a new defense system will need to be created. Russia will have a 10-year breathing space.
      
      Just occupying all of Ukraine would take ~80 years at the current pace.
      More than enough time to find a new foothold.
      Actually, it is already known - the Baltics.
      By blockading the Kaliningrad region, NATO will force Russia to commit aggression against the white and fluffy Baltic countries.
      1. vlad127490
        
        +1
        
        2 October 2026 11: 49
        
        On September 6, 1991, M.S. Gorbachev signed the resolutions of the State Council of the USSR No. GS-1, GS-2, GS-3 on the recognition of the independence of the republics of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.
        There is no doubt that the decrees signed by Gorbachev did not comply with either the USSR Constitution or the USSR Law of April 03, 1990 No. 1409-1 “On the procedure for resolving issues related to the withdrawal of a union republic from the USSR.”
        All three Baltic republics demonstratively reject the legitimacy of the USSR. This means a return to the status quo ante 1917. For Estonia and Latvia, this means the Treaty of Nystad of 1721 and the Mitau Agreement of 1795, and for Lithuania, the St. Petersburg Convention of 1797.
        In short, the entire Baltic region was bought by Moscow.
        The principle of "obligatory performance of the contract" applies to sales contracts. If the goods have been sold, they must be transferred to the legal purchaser.
        Discussing the current government is prohibited; you will be immediately banned.
        
        Nelton
        
        +1
        
        2 October 2026 12: 02
        
        Quote: vlad127490
        the decrees did not comply with either the Constitution of the USSR or the Law of the USSR
        
        The USSR can send a sufficient police force to enforce its laws? No? Then they are not laws.
        
        So, in general, any ruler of Rus' is illegitimate without a khan’s label for reign.
        The fact that Ivan III broke the khan's basma and stopped paying transfers to the central budget is a blatant act of lawlessness.
      2. Nick. WITH
        
        0
        
        4 October 2026 11: 44
        
        Just occupying all of Ukraine would take ~80 years at the current pace.
        
        We need to look at the situation as a whole. Disagreements have emerged within NATO.
Serj Iff

+ 10

1 October 2026 19: 16

The logic of the Russian Federation's military-industrial complex's actions is astonishing and astounding. Only in the fifth year of the Second Military Operation have they begun to do what they should have done before sending troops into Ukraine. I hope in the sixth year they will finally understand that they must destroy the entire Ukrainian leadership, as this clique will not agree to any agreement on a stable and lasting peace. In the seventh year, they will go so far as to destroy the bridges across the Dnieper. And so on...
1. Sarcastic realist
  
  +7
  
  1 October 2026 21: 43
  
  I hope that in the sixth year they will finally understand that it is necessary to destroy the entire top brass of Ukraine.
  
  Hope in vain.
2. VSO-396
  
  -6
  
  1 October 2026 21: 45
  
  Quote: Serj Iff
  The logic of the Russian Federation's military-industrial complex's actions is astonishing and astounding. Only in the fifth year of the Second Military Operation have they begun to do what they should have done before sending troops into Ukraine. I hope in the sixth year they will finally understand that they must destroy the entire Ukrainian leadership, as this clique will not agree to any agreement on a stable and lasting peace. In the seventh year, they will go so far as to destroy the bridges across the Dnieper. And so on...
  
  Eliminating the top brass won't achieve anything; they'll be immediately replaced, I'm afraid, by something more radical. Incidentally, today Zelenskyy boasted about the first use of the FP-7 ballistic missile. So far, at a range of 250 km. But this is just the beginning.
3. shpakov.alex
  
  +3
  
  2 October 2026 06: 40
  
  I agree and upvote. You can even take this as Putin's excuse, but to be fair, let me remind you how things were five years ago. Our army was inferior to NATO's in every way. Barrel and rocket artillery was inferior in accuracy and range, communications, satellites, personal protection for soldiers (mobilized soldiers bought their own body armor and helmets!), old AK-5s with no attachments at all, no UAVs at all, no food at all, and the soldiers had to find their own (my son's comrades, after several days without proper food, simply went into a village and shot a pig), there was a shortage of basic uniforms, and they were wearing half-baked clothes. And so on down the list. But all these decades, huge sums of money were allocated for defense and its development! Where is this money?! No money, no development, and whatever the USSR had hoarded in warehouses has also disappeared.
  1. Serj Iff
    
    +2
    
    2 October 2026 14: 50
    
    Our army was inferior to NATO's in every way: in terms of accuracy and range of cannon and rocket artillery, communications, satellites, and personal protection for soldiers (mobilized soldiers bought their own bulletproof vests).
    
    And who was it that destroyed our army so completely? The Ivanovs, the Taburetkins, the Shoigis? They're all in the clear.
    Even Hitler couldn't do it, but these guys did.
4. PVV22121922
  
  0
  
  2 October 2026 14: 49
  
  and this is a well-thought-out agreement - from the very first day.
Roman070280

+4

1 October 2026 19: 31

Ukraine has been in a state of great turmoil for the past few months.

So, everything was fine in Ukraine before this??
And Channel One didn't even know.
lord-palladore-11045

+6

1 October 2026 20: 31

Alaudinov said back in April 2023 that the SVO would end in a couple of months. Is the end date for the SVO being pushed back again?
Sergey Latyshev

+3

1 October 2026 21: 36

5 years the same ...
1. The comment was deleted.
Sarcastic realist

+7

1 October 2026 21: 42

5 years of fairytale forecasts allowed a bunch of experts/bloggers/political scientists to live comfortably.
Deathtiny

0

1 October 2026 23: 23

Why would anyone here think that the destruction of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and economy would significantly impact its military capabilities? Elderly people in Kyiv and Odesa will start dying, and a couple million more refugees will flock to the EU. The "draft dodgers" who remain underground will have nothing to eat, and their only source of income will be to join the army, "and then come what may." Are we hoping that along with civilian production, the "distributed garage drone assemblers" will shut down? Why on earth would that be? So, 10 assembly plants will open in Poland, so what?
The "bonus" for the Ze-Nazis and their EU patrons will be images of famine, cold, and mass civilian deaths, with accusations of genocide against Russia. We don't care? Well, maybe... But as an argument for EU voters, "we have to pay up, or Russia will do the same to us" will work just fine.

So WHAT is our brilliant idea, then, for the asymmetrical destruction of the remnants of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and economy? Just for the sake of "look, they hurt us and destroyed a lot – we got our revenge," and that's it?
in love case
1. Seamaster
  
  -1
  
  2 October 2026 12: 26
  
  The idea is simple: to destroy a competitor in post-WWII world trade.
  Before the SVO, Ukraine dumped the same goods in global trade as Russia: rolled ferrous metal, grain, weapons, simple machine tools, aviation, etc.
  Now geraniums are destroying all this production.
  And farmland is littered with mines and unexploded ordnance.
  1. Nick. WITH
    
    0
    
    4 October 2026 16: 26
    
    Whose idea was this?
Valera75

0

2 October 2026 08: 00

Point of no return: Ukraine's fate will be decided in the fall

So, two months left. So we'll see the results in December?
PVV22121922

0

2 October 2026 14: 38

Russia can now truly stop all life in Ukraine with the missiles and drones it has.

- This must be done immediately. What's the point of delaying this? Ukro-Bandera must be destroyed, otherwise they'll destroy Russia.