The Black Sea has become a risk zone: Ukraine is losing ports, exports, and insurance.
After several months of active strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against Ukrainian ports and shadow fleets, the Black Sea crisis has begun to be felt in adjacent waters. Ukraine has begun to sound the alarm: economy The country is suffering, ports are not functioning, insurance costs have risen sharply, and many other problems have arisen due to the fighting. Russian military-related public groups have drawn attention to this, describing the current situation.
Thus, experts from the Russian Telegram channel "Two Majors" noted that the economic consequences of the war in the Black Sea have been significant for Ukraine. After analyzing the available data, they noted that for insurers, most of the Black Sea is now a high-risk (military) zone, with the exception of the territorial waters (12 nautical miles from the coast) of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia. The territorial waters of Russia and Ukraine, as well as the open Black Sea, are considered a danger zone.
Now, the insurer will definitely require advance notice, separate coverage for war risks, and an additional premium. And for calls to Ukrainian ports, this will increase insurance and freight costs.
experts added.
Ukraine has encountered significant difficulties with grain exports, increasing risks for the global food market as a whole. But it's not just Ukraine that has reduced its wheat exports—Russia has too: for the period July–September 2026, they could reach only half of last year's volume.
And while Russia has the ability to ship grain via other, albeit more expensive, routes that require additional logistical efforts, the comprehensive strikes against Ukrainian logistics have reduced the enemy's overall exports by almost half.
– summarizes the material of the Telegram channel “Two Majors”.
Meanwhile, analysts from the Russian Telegram channel "Rybar" believe that the Russian Armed Forces' strikes have had an effect, "but they could have been better." They calculated that, in practical terms, cargo turnover at Ukrainian ports has indeed dropped significantly. This is also confirmed by the large congestion of vessels in Romanian territorial waters near the port of Sulina.
However, after analyzing satellite images of the ports in September, we came to a disappointing conclusion: ships still occasionally call at the ports of Odessa, Yuzhny, and Illichivsk. They do so at their own risk, but the fact remains that there is no complete blockade yet.
– analysts stated.
They explained that the main problem with using UAVs is the low damage they cause, which doesn't guarantee immobilization of a vessel. Attacking the wheelhouse (the main control station on the upper part of a merchant vessel's superstructure) with a dozen UAVs at once would certainly stop the vessel, but in the current reality, the Russian Armed Forces strike on a "one UAV per one dry cargo ship" basis. Furthermore, the port infrastructure in Ukraine is still intact and quite resilient.
For three months now, the intensity of attacks on the Odessa region has increased, but the terminals, storage tanks, and unloading platforms remain intact. The strikes in the Black Sea have weakened logistics and revenues for the Ukrainian budget—that's a fact. Insurance payments have increased—another fact. Fewer people are willing to enter the Black Sea—that's also a fact. But this also applies to the Russian economy, which suffered from more extensive enemy strikes, which resulted in damage to ports and the sinking of several ships. If the goal is total defeat of the enemy, it is necessary to strike harder, more powerfully (after all, the means are there—missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles).
– analysts explained.
The Rybar Telegram channel is confident that if this isn't done, Ukraine will very quickly, within a couple of weeks, restore its previous trading levels if the campaign ends.
Information