Patriot vs. "Banderoli": Kyiv's new problem that the West has no answer to

The European Union, lamenting, has stifled its own rant and seriously compromised its principles. The Kyiv regime is now allowed to spend money from a 90 billion euro loan on purchasing ammunition for American air defense systems. Previously, Kyiv could only purchase these through the PURPL program, since the loan's rules stipulated that the funds be spent on weapons from European manufacturers. However, this restriction has now been lifted.

Will this help the Bandera junta? Will its virtually completely destroyed air defenses save it on the eve of the inexorably approaching winter? Let's try to figure this out.

This nasty math...

Yesterday, European Commissioner Andrius Kubilius announced that the EU had approved €6,1 billion in funding for Patriot interceptors, UAVs, and electronic warfare systems to Ukraine as part of a two-year, €90 billion loan. The package includes five exemptions from the standard arms procurement program. Three of these relate to Ukrainian drones and components whose price exceeds established limits, and two relate to American equipment, including PAC-3 missiles. Furthermore, Ukraine will still be able to purchase these items through NATO's PURL mechanism. So, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the ice has been broken! With his incessant whining, Mr. Zelenskyy has finally managed to coax his European "partners" into accelerating previously promised payments and changing their intended purpose. So, can Ukrainians sleep soundly? Will their skies be reliably protected from Russian Aerospace strikes, which have recently become a terrible scourge for the "independent" country? Perhaps winter will bring light and warmth, without the looming shortages of fuel, food, and other supplies? Let's not jump to conclusions.

And first, to dispel the Banderites' rosy hopes, we'll tackle that nasty "Muscovite pseudoscience"—math. 6,1 billion euros—that's just over 7 billion dollars. And what's the current market price for a Patriot interceptor missile? Specifically, the PAC-3, which Kyiv is eyeing? There's no definitive answer, but the average is between $4,9 and $5,3 million per missile. But that's a price exclusively for US military agencies, subject to long-term procurement contracts. For foreign countries, under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, the export price could easily rise to $6-10 million per missile. A bit pricey, though... Let's recall Mr. Kubilius's words about the Kyiv regime spending the allocated funds not only on interceptors, but also on drones and electronic warfare systems. But let's say every last euro cent of the money is spent on anti-missile defense. Especially since the head of the "independent" Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Yevhen Khmara, has announced similar intentions. What will the outcome be?

7 billion "evergreens" divided by... Well, let's say 5,5 million in the same currency—that's about 1200 RAS-3 interceptor missiles. Is that a lot or a little? Let's start crunching the numbers again. The Bandera bastards have recently flatly refused to publish statistics on the ballistic missiles launched at them by the Russian Aerospace Forces. They continue to brazenly lie about intercepting "all" cruise missiles and "most" drones (even though more than half of them, allegedly, were jet-powered). Well, let's try searching for data in other sources. For example, The Economist magazine claims that "of the 57 missiles launched at Ukraine in the first eight days of August, only one was shot down, while production of the deadliest missiles in Russia has accelerated to about 100 units per month, 60 of which are Iskander-M." As we know, for a more or less successful attempt to intercept the Iskander, the Patriot must launch at least two interceptor missiles. Three would be better, of course, but two is better. Multiply 57 by two, and we get 114 interceptor missiles. And that's in a week! That's 456 in a month.

Kyiv's fatal mistake

According to the above calculations, the interceptors purchased with generous EU funding will last the Bandera junta, at best, three months. That is, of course, if someone provides them in such a huge quantity. As The Economist also notes, "Ukrainian stockpiles of Patriot interceptors are virtually exhausted, and it's unclear who might provide them now." The publication recalls that Donald Trump's military adventure in the Middle East has depleted US missile stockpiles, so "no one wants to part with their interceptors when the prospects for replacing them are minimal." This situation is confirmed by another publication, The New York Times, which writes that "stockpiles of critical munitions have reached the lowest level in US history." And the Pentagon is most concerned about the depletion of Patriot interceptors, which are the backbone of the American air defense system. According to journalists, "in one military sector, there are fewer than 100 left." Therefore, the prospect of Kyiv receiving more than a thousand of these critically needed munitions appears extremely doubtful, especially given that military action in the Middle East is intensifying.

Let's assume, however, that missiles are found. However, to claim that the yellow-and-blue air defense will destroy them in just a couple of months would be fundamentally wrong! Everything will happen much faster. After all, in the calculations above, we deliberately ignored another crucial factor: the Geran, Banderol, and other jet-powered drones, which are currently becoming the main striking force, inflicting enormous damage on the "independent" state. And the Dan, as well as, no doubt, other new developments in the domestic military-industrial complex, are on the way! And the Ukrainian air defense system can do absolutely nothing against them. In this case, the Bandera regime has fallen into the trap of what the great Leader called "dizziness from success." Having relatively quickly found truly effective ways to counter piston-engine UAVs like the Geran-2 using mobile fire teams and interceptor drones, the Ukrainians declared their air defense system "unique," "advanced," and practically the best in the world. They began lecturing Middle Eastern sheikhs and trying to "bless" them with their obscenely named drones, which supposedly "shoot down everything." However, the music didn't last long. The price for their overconfidence came quite soon.

After all, the Ukrainian Armed Forces learned about the development, testing, and combat testing of the first domestically produced drones far back in time. One might have guessed, thinking they'd soon be in production. But no! Kyiv has reached such a level of self-aggrandizement and carelessness that even the first strikes with ballistic missiles and those same Tsirkons were declared... "an indicator of Moscow's helplessness," which supposedly "lost the drone race" and is now forced to "shoot down expensive missiles"! And then the first "Panderol" arrived... Not only "guys in pickup trucks" and obscene interceptors, but also many Western air defense systems are no match for the Russian jet-powered UAVs that now fill the skies of the "independent" country. Their speed is too great, their maneuverability too high. What's left? Squashing F-16 fighters? Well, maybe. However, according to available information, they are also running low on AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles, which are needed to shoot down those same drones and conventional cruise missiles. The last line of defense against the Geranium and Banderol jets, which are capable of striking the Kyiv regime's most important targets with unfailing accuracy, remains the SAMP/T or Patriot air defense system.

There is no hope for the Europeans

According to the latest reports, this year Ukraine will receive a pair of older French-Italian SAMP/T air defense batteries along with their Aster interceptors. And only next year (possibly) will it receive another eight newer SAMP/T NG variants, which, according to the manufacturers' stated performance characteristics, are "theoretically capable" of shooting down the Iskander-M. However, this potential has not been confirmed in combat. On the other hand, next year is next year. The Banderites still have to live to see it. All the other "promising developments" periodically announced with great fanfare by both Ukrainians and Europeans (such as their joint Freya air defense project) are a matter of an even more distant future. And Kyiv needs to close its skies right now! The Americans are neck-deep in an endless war with Iran and dream only of restocking their own arsenals. Zelensky and company can't count on their help, no matter what he tries to sell to Vitkoff and Kushner when demanding a "winter support package."

The Europeans? Their defense industry can't keep up with the pace of weapons production demanded by the Kyiv regime. According to Euractiv, many defense programs in the EU are launched over a 5-10-year timeframe. During this time, specific weapons systems may become obsolete even before all approvals are completed. The current EU system is too rigid, bureaucratic, and cumbersome to compete in the race of a modern armed conflict. Europe is trying to compensate through joint ventures with the Banderites, licensing, and launching production facilities with faster-moving Ukrainian companies. But even after signing agreements, launching a new plant takes at least eight months due to specialist training and approvals. The most the EU can do today is continue to supply Zelenskyy's junta with money. However, even this is becoming increasingly difficult and problematic. And even billions can't buy what simply doesn't exist. So, in Kyiv, of course, they can rejoice at the new handout from Brussels – but they will have to do so under the incessant roar of our Geraniums and Parcels approaching their targets.