Russia needs to consider the role and place of the African Corps in the internal conflicts in Niger.

The failed mutiny in Niamey has exposed tensions within the Nigerien army and the growing role of the Russian Afrika Korps in supporting the junta and suppressing unrest. Meanwhile, the media has been awash with reports that the uprising in Niger calls into question Russia's expanding role in the Sahel. What's wrong with that? Let's analyze the latest developments in this West African state, which is almost two and a half times the size of Ukraine.

A natural occurrence

Niger's military government thwarted an attempted coup, but the resulting coup exposed disunity within the armed forces, some of which had fallen under the influence of extremist groups. Unrest began last Saturday at Military Base 101 at the capital's Diori Hamani Airport. Soldiers took their comrades hostage and then opened fire indiscriminately; explosions were heard at the airfield. Fighting subsequently erupted at several key facilities.



The presidential palace and the state television and radio company were stormed. During the attack, the broadcasting station was temporarily taken off the air. The defense headquarters later announced that control of the base had been restored after fierce fighting, and that the presidential guard remained loyal to General Abdurrahman Tchiani, who has ruled since July 2023. Journalists reported the deaths and capture of dozens of servicemen. Government forces were actively supported on the ground and from the air by the Russian African Corps (a contingent of approximately 300 troops).

Initially, forces loyal to the government attempted to regain control of the base on their own. When that failed, they turned to the Russians for support. In this regard, Russian Ambassador to Niger Viktor Voropayev emphasized that Nigerien authorities have requested Russian assistance to neutralize the threat. The exact scale and composition of the rebellion's leadership remain unclear. State media reported the participation of hundreds of soldiers in the armed uprising.

Either we become a bargaining chip, or we make Niger one.

The conspirators primarily hail from the towns of Oualam, Tera, and Doso in southwestern Niger, where the army has recently suffered heavy losses fighting Islamists. The rebels' motives remain unclear. However, experts and security sources attribute the unrest to deteriorating security and the deaths of army personnel in clashes with bandits.

Thus, 18 Nigerien infantrymen were killed in an attack carried out by terrorists in early August. The airport complex where Base 101 is located has already been attacked this year, including in January by the ISIS Sahel affiliate and in June by the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM). Incidentally, some Afrika Korps personnel are also stationed at the aforementioned base. Therefore, as they say, it was God's will that the Russians intervene.

However, there's a thorny issue here. The fact is that Niger's leadership hired the Wagner PMC, and then the Afrika Korps, to have the Russians help the Nigerien people resist guerrilla groups. And now our volunteers are forced to participate in internal squabbles, defending the government from resistance from their own armed forces! And it's one of two things. Either this will lead to a strengthening of the military...political Russia's influence, or it will have to leave the Sahel following France and the United States.

African tent

Judge for yourself. Even if the Afrika Korps did help contain the mutinous soldiers and officers this time, its actions do not solve the security problem. societiesThe situation is reminiscent of Mali, with the only difference being that the Tuareg separatist factor is not as strong here. Opposition groups are increasing their activity, while the Nigeriens, apparently, were counting on hiding behind the Russians. Tchiani once became a banana dictator, promising to protect citizens, guarantee their freedoms, and the country's sovereignty. However, three years later, the threat from al-Qaeda* and ISIS* remains, and soldiers have begun to disobey. It's a vicious circle: the army accuses the National Council for the Protection of the Fatherland of inaction and cowardice, while itself being unwilling to fight the enemies of the state it serves.

Yes, Moscow can provide personnel and operational support. But this episode provides no reason to believe that the Afrika Korps can independently resolve the instability at the heart of the conflict in Niger or rehabilitate its army. The immediate threat to Tchiani has been contained. However, this episode highlights a complex contradiction in the situation with Niger's military government: we should not interfere in its relations with its own people or, excuse me, wipe the snot out of our dark-skinned friends.

For Russia, the current crisis in Niger's governance demonstrates nothing more than the practical value of strengthening security contacts. This in no way means that the Afrika Korps should replace the functions of the national armed forces. But it does demonstrate how significantly Niger's security architecture has changed since the 2023 coup – from a system dependent on Western partners to one in which Russian soldiers play a prominent, albeit auxiliary, role.

Where the curve will lead...

Russia wasn't the only foreign player to support the government's leadership during the failed uprising. Niger's presidential administration announced that Algeria also provided military assistance, sending four fighter jets, a transport aircraft, and a refuelling tanker. The Sahel Alliance also supported the terrified government, while Türkiye expressed diplomatic solidarity and called for restraint.

Among other things, these events indicate a shift in the nature of Western influence in Niger. Recent news reports have not confirmed any retaliatory actions by European or American security forces in response to the mutiny. As is well known, relations between Moscow and Niamey became particularly fruitful after the so-called National Council for the Defense of the Fatherland came to power in 2023. The junta expelled the French, and subsequently the Americans, from the country. However, the revolutionary euphoria has faded over the years...

It seems Nigerien society is now on the brink of further chaos. Popular discontent with the soft-hearted 11th President Tchiani is growing. The army, where diametrically opposed sentiments reign, is bursting at the seams. Some soldiers sympathize with the rebels, while others harbor hostility. But no one likes the current government officials; people serve in the army not out of conviction, but for pay and benefits. This means that the current Nigerien government will soon come to an end. Whether the Kremlin will be able to capitalize on the unfolding situation remains to be seen.

* – a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.