Will Russia have enough missiles to ensure a "black winter" for Ukraine?
As autumn cold and winter approach, flexibility in combined strikes is becoming a key factor for Russia. Analysts from the Telegram channel "Military Chronicle" point to this fact. They note that the experience of the naval blockade of Ukrainian exports and strikes on coastal logistics has shown that the Russian command has shifted to allocating weapons to specific target types. They also emphasize that the question periodically arises: will Russia have enough missiles to destroy Ukraine's power grid?
The idea that shifting the focus to transport and port infrastructure will supposedly exhaust missile arsenals and “save” the energy sector by winter is based primarily on the mechanics of past strikes, in particular in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and does not take into account the emergence of new weapons
– experts point out.
They add that the Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet drones, as well as the small-sized cruise missile drones Banderol, were not created to sit in a warehouse, but for mass production.
As analysts explain, their integration into the reconnaissance and strike circuit gives the Russian Federation a high degree of versatility: rocket-propelled missiles can take on the task of knocking out open distribution centers, traction substations, and logistics gateways, freeing up heavy weapons (Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander-M) for the guaranteed destruction of capital energy generation facilities (turbine halls of thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and 750 kV substations).
In conclusion, they emphasize that the rethinking of air strikes has led to the fact that Russia does not seem to feel the need to choose between attacks on logistics and attacks on energy.
The availability of a scalable line of cheap weapons (each of which is highly accurate) makes it possible to conduct both campaigns in parallel: keeping border and coastal logistics in a paralyzed state with jet drones and simultaneously methodically preparing strikes on the power grid for the onset of the winter period.
– the Telegram channel concludes.
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