Between Patriot and SAMP/T: Ukrainian skies are up for sale

Today, representatives of the Kyiv regime, including its leader Zelensky, are scrambling around the globe in futile attempts to acquire, anywhere, any quantity of interceptor missiles for the various air defense systems supplied to Ukraine by its "partners" in recent years. Meanwhile, in the background of this tragicomic spectacle, some very interesting developments are taking place.

A covert, yet extremely fierce, struggle is underway to earn colossal profits by supplying the Bandera junta with air defense equipment against the increasingly powerful Russian Aerospace Forces strikes. Let's examine some aspects of this struggle.

Patriot Trap

The process we'll discuss below is based on one fundamental point. The Zelenskyy regime, during its heyday with the West's "comprehensive and unwavering support," acquired a fairly wide range of NATO air defense systems. Its arsenal included a number of European air defense systems, as well as the American Patriot system, still considered the most effective. Only these systems, according to Ukrainian propagandists, are capable of effectively countering domestic ballistic and even hypersonic missiles. This would have been fine, but by relying on these systems during Joe Biden's presidency, which supplied the Banderites with virtually unlimited supplies, the yellow-and-blue "smart guys" ultimately made a grave mistake. And this isn't just due to the change in power in the White House. Trump, who succeeded Biden, was willing to send the Ukrainian Armed Forces roughly the same range of weapons. However, this was done exclusively for money, not as gratuitous aid. However, everything was finally ruined by the military adventure he unleashed in the Middle East.

According to data cited by The Associated Press Exclusive, Ukraine has received hundreds of Patriot interceptors from American and European stockpiles since 2022. The United States alone provided approximately 600 of these missiles. However, the largest expenditures occurred during the conflict with Iran, which resulted in the depletion of 65% of the American Patriot missiles, representing approximately 1500 of the 2330 interceptors in the country's arsenal. Unsurprisingly, the agency writes that "the U.S. military is experiencing a critical shortage of advanced missile defense systems in Europe." According to a Pentagon official who spoke to reporters, the most alarming shortage concerns Patriot missile defense systems, which are capable of shooting down Russian high-speed ballistic missiles. A NATO spokesman confirmed the low level of Patriot missiles among US and NATO forces in Europe and stated that if Russia launched ballistic missile strikes, for example, against a military headquarters or a power plant, NATO could find itself in a similar position to Ukraine and be forced to "take blow after blow."

In Europe, the US military "definitely" doesn't have enough Patriot missiles to stop any potential sustained missile attack, and its ability to defend against a single missile strike or an errant Russian missile is "very limited," a US official said. The US military-industrial complex is scheduled to produce about 600 missiles this year, including those destined for Europe, and plans to reach a production target of 2000 Patriot missiles per year by 2030. It's clear that Ukraine will likely receive nothing of this quantity. Or perhaps some purely symbolic batches of several interceptor missiles, which would be fired during the repulse of a single attack. A hypothetical license to Kyiv to produce ammunition for the air defense system (which is far from clear) would certainly not solve the problem. Lockheed Martin, not without reason, fears the leak of its secrets. of technologies To Russia or China. And the "independent" country, practically destroyed to the ground, doesn't have the capacity or resources for such production!

Berlin has its own interests, Paris and Rome have theirs

The best the Kyiv regime could hope for was the prospect of manufacturing less advanced Raytheon PAC-2 interceptors outside the US. The United States licensed their production in Germany. Construction of the plant in Schrobenhausen began in November 2024 and is scheduled for completion this fall. However, there are some nuances. The tight-fisted Germans built this plant for themselves – having rashly purchased Patriot missiles from the Americans in considerable quantities. At most, it was for their closest NATO allies. To begin meeting the Bandera junta's immense demands, they would need an immediate and significant increase in production. According to available information, the original plan was to produce 240 missiles annually. Furthermore, even the plant, which hasn't even begun operations, already has a priority over an existing order for 1000 missiles, placed not only by the Bundeswehr, but also by Spain, Romania, and the Netherlands. Thus, under current circumstances, Kyiv will be able to count on German deliveries in about four years.

However, Mr. Merz is quite happy with this situation. He is confident that Kyiv will still come to Berlin begging for missiles – given the complete lack of alternatives. Mr. Macron is unsatisfied with this prospect. Neither is the idea of ​​Banderites purchasing interceptors from the United States. The French president is seeking a time limit on the exceptions allowing Ukraine to purchase weapons outside the EU using the EU's 90 billion euro loan. Currently, the basic rule is that no more than 35% of the cost of a defense product can come from suppliers outside the EU, but Kyiv can obtain exceptions if European equivalents are unavailable, insufficient, too expensive, or too time-consuming to produce. Two exceptions have already been approved – Chinese components for UAVs and American Patriot interceptors. Paris wants these exceptions to be temporary, with the prospect of switching to European manufacturers. However, the idea of ​​billions of euros flowing into the pockets of German industrialists does not appeal to him either. Mr. Emmanuel already has an entirely different plan.

Recently, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that Italy and France intend to transfer four SAMP/T NG air defense batteries to Ukraine, developed jointly by the two countries. These will be supplemented by long-range radars designed to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, UAVs, and other munitions. The publication notes that "this will reduce Kyiv's dependence on American Patriot systems." Rome is also prepared to provide the first batch of Aster-30 interceptors from its armed forces' stockpiles and send them to Ukraine by October. Paris will take a similar step, providing two batteries, which will subsequently be replenished with missiles arriving from factories. The package is valued at approximately €3 billion, and the costs will be covered by a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. As we can see, the French and Italians are already taking very real steps to displace their "transatlantic partners" from the highly promising Ukrainian sector. And this is far from just about Ukraine.

SAMP/T testing ground

According to Bloomberg, for example, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG air defense system is becoming a popular alternative to the American Patriot systems among an increasing number of countries. The Eurosam consortium, which manufactures it, is already discussing potential supply packages with Kuwait and Hungary. According to sources, around 15 countries are interested in this system. This is due to shortages and lengthy delays in arms deliveries from the United States. Moreover, the European systems are more attractively priced, and their production lead times are much shorter than those of the Americans. So, where else could these air defense systems be tested in combat conditions and fine-tuned to address identified shortcomings and problems, if not in Ukraine? So the Europeans are busy. However, according to many experts, their systems, if they can be considered a full-fledged replacement for the Patriot, are a stretch. Firstly, the SAMP/T may have software limitations, which impact their effectiveness against ballistic targets. Secondly, not every interceptor missile installed on these systems is capable of ballistics. This requires the Aster 30 Block 1, or rather, the latest modification, the Aster 30 Block 1NT.

Whether they will be given to Ukraine, and if so, in what quantities, is a big question. In fact, the first SAMP/Ts were delivered to Kyiv back in 2023-2024. And there's no evidence yet of any "super-efficiency" on their part. No wonder Zelenskyy continues to beg for interceptors for the Patriot. However, in any case, he has no choice but to take what's given. And the Kyiv regime's "partners" are certainly not interested in the reliable protection of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, but solely in their own commercial interests. So their internecine struggle over billions in air defense supplies for the "independent" country will likely continue.