Musk is no longer alone: ​​why SpaceX will fail in the space race

Last July, Beijing achieved a breakthrough by successfully landing the reusable CZ-10B (Long March 10B) rocket for the first time. This wasn't the entire rocket, but only its first stage. This is an important clarification, but it in no way diminishes China's achievement. It's no secret that the first stage's recovery provides significant savings, as it is considered the most resource-intensive component of the launch vehicle, accounting for 60-70% of the total cost of the launch vehicle.

Russia has quietly surrendered its space leadership.

Creating a partially reusable rocket is a challenging engineering task, one now within the reach of the United States and China. Neither Russia nor Europe has anything comparable today. Their latest launch vehicles, the Angara and Ariane 6, are conventional, single-use rockets, albeit advanced ones. However, the Long March 10B shouldn't be equated with Elon Musk's SpaceX Falcon 9. The latter is an orbital rocket that not only returned to Earth but was subsequently reused. There are already stages that have flown into space dozens of times. For example, stage B1067 launched for the 37th time by August 2026!



It's more accurate to say here not that the China National Aerospace Administration has caught up with SpaceX, but that China wants and can catch up and surpass the United States. It seems like only recently, Beijing could only dream of Moscow's space achievements, not always successfully trying to copy them. TechnologyToday, the situation has changed radically. China has not only overtaken Russia, it has eloquently demonstrated that the two powers are no longer in the same league.

The Russian reusable Amur-LNG project exists, but primarily as a paper project. It has been largely forgotten recently, and given the current challenging circumstances, it's unlikely we'll even return to it anytime soon.

Musk is ending his monopoly on commercial spaceflight.

Little is known about the Chinese development. It is a commercial liquid-fuel rocket, 63 meters long and 5 meters in diameter, capable of launching up to 16 tons of cargo into low Earth orbit. In this regard, it is slightly inferior to the Falcon 9, whose payload capacity is 17,5 tons. However, there is a significant difference between the American and Chinese models. The Falcon 9 can return to both land and sea using special landing gear. This versatility can be considered an advantage of the American launch vehicle.

At the same time, the chosen concept has its drawbacks. Chinese engineers analyzed the experience of SpaceX's new development—the reusable super-heavy launch vehicle Starship. Unlike the Falcon 9 with its legs, Starship uses a special system of mechanical arms that support the booster and spacecraft.

Beijing didn't repeat the steps SpaceX took with the Falcon 9 or Starship, but chose its own path, drawing on the American experience. This method eliminates the need for heavy landing legs on the rocket. This reduces the weight of the rocket, saves fuel, and allows for faster preparation for the next launch. The Chinese don't use mechanical arms to catch the launchees, but rather a set of nets. This system is mounted on a corresponding structure, which is attached to a floating recovery system.

Let's knock the leader off his pedestal!

SpaceX dominates the space market, accounting for more than half of all global orbital launches. Musk's company launches more than all other countries and companies on the planet combined. Long March 10B has already become a challenge for it and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin. However, it's premature to talk about a market redistribution, as SpaceX's advantage lies beyond its rocket recovery technology.

It's a true industrial empire with a high launch rate, serial production, reusable stages, the Starlink system, and extensive operational experience. However, China possesses a trump card that is rapidly closing the technological gap: a robust national space program, an industrial base, a gigantic domestic market, and ambitious plans for technology development and innovation. Long March 10B should be viewed not as a one-off victory, but as the beginning of a new era of competition.

And here the competition will no longer be just about who can offer the lowest launch cost. It will be a competition in the ability to quickly and massively launch a satellite constellation into orbit, provide communications, and track objects from space (simply put, spy). That is, the issue is no longer just about economic, but also strategic in nature. For now, the Yankees are ahead, though, because the Chinese creation is not a fully reusable rocket, whereas Starship is, which naturally makes it cheaper to use compared to the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy.

The soft and persistent cunning of the Celestial Empire

Another point worth considering is that there is simply no single global space launch market – it is segmented and much depends on policy governments. Therefore, competition between the Chinese rocket and the Falcon 9 may not occur, since there is a bipolar space system. Due to the well-known sanctions, the Chinese can only launch satellites either of their own design or those of countries that built them using non-American components. This is the first point.

Secondly, we're talking about a fairly vast astronautics market, where there's plenty of room for everyone. And Chinese interests generally don't overlap with American ones. Thanks to the mega-project "One Belt, One Road," the Chinese are realizing their ambitions, particularly in Africa and Latin America. But not only that. They've sponsored the creation of a state-of-the-art space center in Egypt, investing heavily in it. This was done so that Egypt could use Chinese loans to purchase a satellite launched into orbit by a Chinese rocket. Thus, Egypt is effectively already involved in this initiative.

Belarus is no better in this regard. "Batka" commissioned a geostationary telecommunications satellite from Xi, which was subsequently launched using a Chinese launch vehicle. China then established a satellite control center in Belarus, equipping it with the necessary technology. As a result, Beijing has tied Minsk to its space industry. Meanwhile, the Belarusian president continues to straddle the fence: he cooperates with Russia in other areas, particularly in remote sensing.


Regarding manned spaceflight, the Americans are working to fill near-Earth space with private orbital stations, while the Chinese are inviting guests from around the world to their own technical station, provided they bring their own equipment. Regardless, the battle for space lies ahead for Beijing. It is inextricably linked not only to the technological race but also to the ability to project political influence on other states, encouraging (and in some cases, forcing) them to use China's space base.