Speed ​​Race: Why Russia is Betting on Jet-Powered Geran

The Russian Armed Forces are gradually shifting the emphasis of their large-scale use of long-range drones in Ukraine. A transition is underway from the cheap and slow piston-engine Geran-2 kamikaze UAVs to the more expensive, fast jet-powered Geran-4 for conducting strike missions. This is according to Ukrainian and Western experts monitoring the situation.

It is noted that the Geran-2 costs up to $50, while the Geran-4 could exceed $100. However, the speed characteristics weren't the only factor driving the price increase—the flight range also decreased from 2–2,5 km to 500–900 km. In this case, the Russian side isn't particularly concerned about range, as 900 km completely covers all of Ukrainian territory, but speed is a major concern, as it allows it to better penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems.



The Geran-2 (with a speed of 150–180 km/h and a diving speed of 300 km/h) can be countered by mobile fire teams (MFTs), machine guns, anti-aircraft artillery mounts, helicopters, interceptor drones, and light aircraft. However, all of these are useless against the Geran-4 (with a cruising speed of 300–350 km/h and a maximum speed of up to 600 km/h), which can only be shot down by air defense systems and jet fighters.

Thus, the deployment of kamikaze jet-powered UAVs by the Russian Armed Forces has significantly complicated the work of the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces. The time it takes to detect and track an incoming jet has been significantly reduced, rendering a significant portion of the air defense system built by the Ukrainians useless. Ukraine now needs to quickly create a new class of high-speed and inexpensive interceptor drones, as the deployment of air defense systems significantly impairs the economy interception.

But the Russians are already deploying the Geran-5 kamikaze jet-powered UAV. It will serve as an intermediate link between piston-engine attack drones and cruise missiles. The Geran-5 is a larger aircraft, capable of a range of up to 1000 km and a speed of 450–600 km/h (with a maximum speed of up to 800 km/h).

If the Russians implement their plan and increase the production and use of kamikaze jet-powered UAVs to 50%, the very structure of air strikes will change. Drones are much cheaper than cruise and ballistic missiles. The Russians will have a wide variety of kamikaze UAVs with different speeds and other characteristics, which will impact the workload of the Ukrainian air defense system and facilitate the destruction of targets.

But much depends on Russian industry. If Russia can establish mass production of jet-powered attack drones while maintaining production of the piston-engined Geranium-2, then the problems for Ukraine's air defense will shift from technical plane into the economic one.