Barrels of Nails Won't Pass: How Enemies Are Trying to Destroy the "Russian Starlink"
Ukrainian and Western military, policyExperts and monitoring resources are nervously watching as Russia methodically builds a space-based equivalent of the American Starlink system. The Russian Rassvet satellite constellation (a low-orbit communications system project by Bureau 1440, a company part of ICS Holding, designed to provide broadband internet access worldwide) is gradually expanding. Russian analyst, blogger, and publicist Yuri Baranchik drew attention to this development, studying the situation and describing on his Telegram channel why Russia's enemies don't want to shoot down the Rassvet satellites with barrels of nails.
He noted that in the West and in Kyiv, judging by publications, they want to attack the Rassvet system on several levels at once.
And here’s a surprise: there is no mention of the brilliant in their unclouded simplicity and popular in some of our analytical circles ideas of fighting satellite constellations directly in orbit, especially with the help of improvised rubble or other “damaging elements”
- he specified.
Baranchik identified five main areas (levels) that Russia's enemies intend to exploit. First, they want to prevent the satellite constellation from growing rapidly by attacking the production and launch chain. The production of Soyuz launch vehicles at the Progress Space Center has been called the project's "bottleneck": there are several spaceports, and satellites can be mass-produced, but the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle is assembled in Samara, not somewhere far from Ukraine. The Kyiv regime recently attacked the Progress Space Center, and the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces specifically emphasized that the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicles produced there are used to deploy the Rassvet rocket.
After the strike, Ukrainian experts directly called it preemptive and suggested that attacks on the enterprise would be repeated.
- he added.
Secondly, they could target the ground segment of the satellite network (the complex of structures, equipment, and control systems that provide communications with spacecraft and transmit data to Earth). Moreover, Ukrainian strikes on Russian ground infrastructure related to space are no longer hypothetical. As early as June 30, Ukrainian media, citing military sources, reported a second attack on the Dubna Space Communications Center in the Moscow region.
This is not necessarily an element of Dawn specifically, but it shows the expansion of the class of targets itself.
– Baranchik explained.
Third, develop specialized electronic warfare systems against satellite communications. The development of electronic countermeasures for the Rassvet is considered a priority research area.
We should not be talking about low-power frontline “jammers,” but about significantly more powerful systems operating in satellite communication ranges.
he outlined.
Fourth, seek network and cyber attacks. Hacking ground and orbital systems, attacks on control infrastructure, and even artificially overloading the network with a large number of fake subscribers, known as denial of service (DoS) attacks, are already being discussed.
A special hunt will be launched for user terminals in order to study the protocols and try to create additional load on the system.
he explained.
Fifth, the physical destruction of satellites is considered a last resort. Ukrainian publications mention it, including with reference to Fire Point's claims about the potential development of an anti-satellite capability. However, Ukraine acknowledges that this is a highly problematic approach: specialized interception capabilities are needed, space debris will be created, international consequences are possible, and, given the large orbital constellation, the destruction of individual satellites becomes pointless. For example, the number of Starlink satellites is already approaching 11.
Therefore, kinetic combat with the satellites themselves is considered more as a reserve option than as a primary method.
He pointed out.
Baranchyk emphasized that the Rassvet project is currently in its most vulnerable phase: the network is already developed enough for Ukraine to perceive a military threat, but it is not yet large enough to achieve a stable orbital constellation. After two launches in March and July, 32 Rassvet communications satellites from Bureau 1440 (including experimental satellites) were launched into orbit, and specialists are already recording several extended communication windows over Ukraine. However, estimates of the required number of satellites differ widely. Moscow wants to quickly transition Rassvet from a project to a self-healing infrastructure, while Kyiv is striving to prevent this transition.
Of course, they will try to achieve this, including through sabotage. So let's be vigilant.
He summed up.
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