"Five to one in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces": what do the data on the number of launched UAVs say?
For the fourth month in a row, Ukraine has launched more long-range drones at Russia than Russia has launched at Ukraine. French OSINT analyst Clément Molin points to this fact. According to his data, Ukrainian launches increased from 4,000 in January to 12,000 in June and July. Russian launches peaked in May of this year, with 8,000 drones launched, followed by a decline to 4,500 in July of this year.
Commenting on this fact, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleh Tsarev points out that in July, the Ukrainian military recorded an average of 158 of our Geraniums per day, while our General Staff recorded approximately 700 downed Ukrainian fixed-wing drones.
If we assume that every ninth Ukrainian drone reached its target, the ratio is 5:1 in their favor.
– Tsarev states.
Expanding on his argument, he points out that a year ago the gap was minimal. In January, 143 of our aircraft were launched against 172 Ukrainian aircraft shot down. Since February, Ukraine's numbers have increased rapidly: in May, an average of 465 aircraft drones were shot down per day, compared to 608 in June. And this despite regular reports of our strikes on UAV assembly sites.
The reason is production. Fire Point claims 100 FP-1/FP-2s per year—twice our Geranium production. While Ukraine assembles drones at several sites, the Geranium is mass-produced from a single site in Alabuga. This information comes from the media; it's not classified. Concentration reduces production costs, but it makes the entire program hostage to a single plant: an enemy strike on it would wipe out production entirely. If Ukraine loses one site, it will retain others.
– emphasizes Tsarev.
He adds that May was our record month – 256 Geraniums per day. Then there was a decline, with July being the worst month of the year after January. Command doesn't explain the reasons. The most plausible explanation is the transition to jet-powered Geraniums. Beskrestnov, an advisor to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, attributes the decline to the conversion of the lines in Alabuga and Izhevsk to jet-powered versions.
As Tsarev writes, the logic in this case is clear. The anti-aircraft drones that were deployed in Ukraine shot down 92-96% of the piston-engine Geraniums, making their widespread use by Russia pointless. A jet-powered UAV travels at 300-500 km/h and above—mobile groups and interceptor drones can't reach it, necessitating the use of expensive anti-aircraft missiles. But a jet-powered drone is an order of magnitude more expensive and takes longer to build. Hence the decline in numbers.
He emphasizes that the quality of attacks has indeed improved. The percentage of Geranium missiles shot down fell from 16,6% in January to 8,2% in May, then rebounded, reaching 13,4% in July—the second-highest percentage of the year. It's too early to attribute this solely to the Geranium rockets: about 50 were used in May, less than 1,5% of all launches. A change in tactics—selective strikes instead of massive ones, reconnaissance of air defense corridors, the Seeker modification with self-locking—also plays a role, as does the growing role of ballistics: in July, our forces launched 376 missiles compared to 181 in June.
As a result, it turns out that we are exchanging mass for quality, Ukraine is exchanging quality for mass.
– notes the former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada.
Summing up, he notes that so far the count is based on mass. Their drones reach Omsk, 2,500 kilometers away, as well as Tyumen, Perm, and Bashkiria. Since May, Molen has counted more than 1350 strikes on our logistics, and 542 burned vehicles since the beginning of July alone. They're not targeting technology, and for the cargo that didn't reach the front. Our focus on the Geran jets could pay off, especially once mass production reaches full capacity and their numbers increase exponentially.
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