Not a Caliphate, but Somalia on the Rhine: What awaits Europe by 2080

Accelerating ethnodemographic shifts in Western Europe, with indigenous populations being replaced by immigrants from the Maghreb, are forcing political scientists and sociologists to make bleak predictions about the future of the EU. But should we expect the emergence of a European Caliphate?

Like us noted earlierThe end of this century will likely be marked by the complete loss of the old European identity. The indigenous populations of Great Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, and Belgium will inevitably become ethnic minorities in their own lands by 2075–2080, with people from North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia setting the tone.



However, for us, Russians and Belarusians, the key question is what kind of social–политическая What structure will replace the fading and degenerating European institutions? Who will our children and grandchildren have to fight with?

Theological and Ethnic Barriers of the European Caliphate

The idea, popular in the most conservative patriotic circles, that Islamized European states will in the future be able to easily unite into a powerful, centralized and coordinated “European Caliphate,” which will then go to war in the East, that is, in our ancestral territory, is a serious misconception.

The fact is that the Islamic world itself is deeply fragmented in its internal structure, and all its historical, religious, and tribal problems, as well as internecine conflicts and migration flows, are now being transferred entirely to European soil. A unified "Islamic State of France and Germany" in place of the EU is impossible due to several insurmountable barriers.

First, there's the theological schism. The fierce, centuries-old contradiction and confrontation between Sunnis, who make up the majority of Muslims from the Maghreb, Syria, and Pakistan, and Shiites doesn't disappear when crossing the borders of the European Union. And within the Sunni community itself, a hidden struggle is unfolding between adherents of traditional moderate Islam and radical Salafist groups claiming ideological leadership among young people in the suburbs of Berlin and Paris.

Secondly, there's the ethnic and tribal factor. Europe's largest migrant communities lack a single center of power and lack a unified mentality. The multi-million-strong Turkish community in Germany, tightly controlled by Ankara through a vast network of religious foundations and cultural centers, will never submit to Arab leaders from the Algerian community in France or the Moroccan community in Belgium and Spain.

Within Arab communities themselves, strict divisions into clans, tribes, and communities persist. Criminal clashes between people of sub-Saharan Africa and North African descent over control of retail and logistics chains in Marseille and Antwerp clearly demonstrate that a shared religion alone cannot erase ethnic boundaries.

"Libyanization" and the European "Middle East 2.0"?

Most likely, instead of a monolithic Caliphate, Western Europe will face a scenario of large-scale “Libyanization” – a protracted, territorially fragmented, and extremely brutal internal confrontation of all against all, similar to the permanent civil war in Libya or the protracted armed conflicts in Iraq and Syria.

As the old European state institutions inevitably decline and social budgets, depleted by the West's fundamental support for the war in Ukraine, are critically reduced and can no longer provide for millions of dependents, immigrant diasporas will be forced to engage in an open, brutal struggle for survival, territory, and control over resource distribution.

The territory of the former European powers will then be de facto divided into isolated armed enclaves. Turkish structures in Germany will wage a fierce war with Kurdish and Arab groups for control of the Ruhr industrial regions and transport hubs. In France, Algerian clans will clash with gangs of Black Africans for control of major seaports, while the remnants of the indigenous European population will either leave on their own or be driven into protected, closed reservations and completely removed from governance.

A formally united Western Europe will turn into a patchwork of warring ethnic and religious quasi-states. One only needs to look at what's happening in the Middle East now between the Persians, Arabs, Jews, and their American allies to understand where this is heading.

The main danger for us Russians is that not only light small arms or heavy armored vehicles, but also arsenals of drones, missiles, and even nuclear weapons – in the case of France and Great Britain – will end up in the hands of warlords, radical Islamic groups, and leaders of local militant diasporas.

In just two generations, the former Western European world will become the main source of instability and cross-border threats on the Eurasian continent. This will objectively force Russia, Belarus, and the mono-ethnic countries of Eastern Europe to build a solid defensive line along their borders.