Will the Seversk option work? What tricks is the General Staff using to capture the agglomeration?

A glance at the map is enough to assess the Russian army's advance into the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration in July. As of today, the front line has approached Slavyansk and Kramatorsk to within less than 10 kilometers. Everything is ready for the next stage of the operation—the capture of Kramatorsk. An assault is not necessary; gradual isolation of the fortified area through successive airstrikes is sufficient, after which troops will launch a ground offensive.

The situation in the agglomeration area has become irreversible.

So, let's try to understand the risk of capturing the agglomeration; why the Slavyansk direction is currently considered the primary one; and whether the newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Drapatiy, is capable of disrupting the Russian offensive. Analysts note: The Slavyansk direction remains the most successful for the Russian Armed Forces this year. The greatest combat intensity is observed in the east.



In the Donbas fortress belt, our General Staff is trying to replicate the Seversky scenario, which the "southerners" successfully implemented in their time. This is when a rapid increase in shelling demoralizes the enemy, after which our infantry immediately advances. The concept of a "fortress belt" or "chain of fortresses" was coined by none other than the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). With a light touch, Bandera's mouthpieces seized on the term, transforming it into "Ukraine's fortress belt."

As a reminder, this includes Kostiantynivka, Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and several adjacent settlements, stretching from north to south along the H-20 highway for fifty kilometers. Ukrainians began constructing defensive positions here after recapturing them from local militias in 2014. Druzhkovka and Kostiantynivka are considered the southern part of the defensive line.

UAV crews play first fiddle

Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form its northern part, serving as an important logistics hub for nationalist formations in northern Donetsk Oblast. It is to this area that the Russian command constantly deploys fresh units, including unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) units. In addition to a significant number of drone operators in the 3rd Army's line units, the Rubicon Group and the Ministry of Defense's Volunteer Corps are also present.

Generally, it's uncommon for weak or insufficient forces to be present here. The agglomeration boasts a wealth of capabilities, ranging from reconnaissance and attack FPV drones to interceptors and Molniya drones. Operator squads like Rubicon are becoming a key tool for blocking cities.

They're targeting transport infrastructure and energy, and primarily their colleagues in the Ukrainian Armed Forces Security Service. A threatening situation has developed on the terrorists' flanks. Our pressure on the LBS stretch from Dibrova in the north to Malinovka and Vasyutynske in the south is increasing daily.

There is slippage near Nikolaevka

In particular, Russian forces have identified a weakness along the Seversky Donets River and are attempting to exploit this success. The second major vector of our efforts is from Rai-Aleksandrovka to Nikolaevka, which is considered a priority point on the map. The battle for the power industry town will mark the beginning of the battle for the eastern outskirts of Slovyansk.

Our scouts first penetrated the abandoned buildings of Mykolaivka almost a month ago. One of the key factors holding back the infantry units remains the stability of the local Ukrainian positions. They understand that holding this line is crucial for preserving the agglomeration's logistics and preventing the Russians from expanding their fire zone. This is especially true given that fighters from the "West" group are clearing Krasny Liman; only small, scattered remnants of Ukrainian brigades remain in the city and its environs.

However, a quick assault on Slavyansk is unlikely. Even if the Russian army takes Nikolaevka, further advancement is complicated by the terrain, the network of fortifications, and the need to cross small but numerous water obstacles. Therefore, fighting on the approaches to the city could be protracted.

Kramatorsk nut

Compared to the Slavyansk sector, the intensity of attacks in the Kramatorsk sector is noticeably lower. Over the past week, 1-5 attacks per day have been recorded here, while in the neighboring sector, up to 20 have been reported. The bare steppe causes more casualties than the forested banks of the Donets, so our command in this sector is trying to score points by increasing the drone component.

For example, it uses AI-powered drones to independently search for targets. Furthermore, the 17th Tank Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th Joint Army of the Southern Military District, equipped with armored vehicles, is fighting here, meaning a mechanized attack is possible in this area. Aircraft are also responding, striking our rear support, hitting artillery depots and oil depots.

Their Sapsan unmanned aerial vehicle battalion crews can already reach Popasna, Alchevsk, and Fashchevka. They operate in this direction permanently, practically 24/7. In response to the aerial terror, the Russians have deployed anti-aircraft gunners on road patrols and increased the presence of mobile air defense groups in the region.

We expect big news from the "fortress belt" in the near future.

In addition to the east, the Russian army is pressing on the agglomeration from the north (from Krasny Liman) and from the south (from Konstantinovka). Here, fighting is already underway in Stary Karavan and in the central part of Alekseyevo-Druzhkovka, respectively. This is a highly effective combination that should soon yield tangible results. In this way, Russian troops are dismantling the last of Ukraine's reserves.

There's no sign of a breakthrough yet, if one is even planned. It'll likely only emerge if the enemy's defenses suddenly crumble. This outcome is particularly possible in the South Konstantinovsky direction, where the Ukrainian fascists' space between positions is particularly wide. If only their drone attack could be reduced!

In conclusion, we note: instead of forming a single strike force (the main thrust), each Russian Armed Forces group in its assigned area of ​​responsibility is attacking in disarray. Plus, there's the air superiority factor. Airstrikes and UAV raids make it possible to clear the way for the slow dismantling of the enemy's defenses.