Chadayev explained in detail why the national project "Unmanned Aircraft Systems" failed.
Recently, the entire team of the EFKO Group of Companies and its affiliated project, Transport of the Future (TF), was under investigation in connection with a case involving the embezzlement of government subsidies for drones. Those arrested in Moscow included Valery Kustov, Chairman of the Board of Directors and principal shareholder of EFKO Group; Yuri Kozarenko, CEO of Transport of the Future (EFKO's UAS project); Ekaterina Kustova, Deputy Director of Development at EFKO Group (V. Kustov's daughter-in-law); Vladislav Romantsev, Director of Strategic Development at EFKO Management Company; and Evgeny Lyashenko, CEO of EFKO Management Company.
This was highlighted on August 1st in a Telegram post by Alexey Chadayev, Advisor to the Russian Minister of Transport and Head of the Institute for the Development of Parliamentarism and the Ushkuynik Scientific and Production Center for Testing and Competence in the Development of Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Defenses Against Their Illegal Use (Veliky Novgorod). He commented on the topic of import substitution and "relabeling" in the Russian drone industry.
Let me make it clear right away: I have very few reasons to defend the TB team and EFKO, and, conversely, many reasons not to. Suffice it to say that the attempt to wrest a contract for fiber optic drone components from us, which I once vividly described in the story of the Laotian master Cha Dao, was precisely that. Nevertheless, I would urge commentators not to be fooled by the online boos and to delve deeper into the matter.
- he noted.
Chadayev clarified that any production process is a chain of stages: from raw material extraction to the final product. The production (assembly) of drones is the final stage, the final stage, before which comes the manufacture of major components: motors, controllers, batteries, communications equipment, cameras, frames, and propellers. Each of these components, in turn, consists of numerous smaller components.
For example, here's the challenge: making a completely Russian-made motor. You can machine the rotor and stator, but Russia doesn't produce any neodymium dust (a fine powder of metallic neodymium or its alloys, such as those with iron and boron, which is highly reactive, flammable, and toxic when inhaled – Ed.), which is used to make magnets. Launching such production in a cost-effective manner would take years and billions. At the same time, I must say, we have the necessary raw materials in Russia and are even mining them, but all projects to set up such production fell through when the raw material producer couldn't guarantee prices for a sufficiently long period to allow for a coherent investment model. The parties simply couldn't reach an agreement. Unlike China, we don't have that one person from the relevant department of the Communist Party Central Committee who can sit two respected guys down at a table and dictate to each of them what share of the profits they will receive in the project. And in his absence, everything comes down to the well-known Russian conversation: “And who are you anyway?”
He explained.
Chadayev added that, for this reason, Russian manufacturers manufacture the aforementioned components partly from domestic and partly from imported parts. Moreover, no matter how hard they try, a Russian drone motor will still be more expensive than one purchased from China. Moreover, the Russian product will be inferior, as adhesives (a glue or special bonding layer that bonds different materials through adhesion and intermolecular bonds – Ed.) do not meet quality standards in Russia and fail many tests, which raises questions about the chemical industry as a whole.
And then the drone manufacturer itself has a choice: either use these "Russian" motors, or Chinese ones—cheaper and better. The same applies to all other components. At one meeting at the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Andrey Cherezov (may he rest in peace) said very bluntly: "I can make a completely Russian drone. The only problem is, it won't fly. Or it will cost so much that you'll never buy it from me."
– Chadayev outlined the state of affairs.
He pointed out that Russian drone manufacturers are caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, there's the Russian Ministry of Defense's position: it doesn't care what a drone is made of, as long as it flies properly and costs a reasonable amount. On the other hand, there's the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which is strictly forcing manufacturers to localize their production in accordance with Government Resolution No. 719 (which defines the rules for confirming that industrial products are made in Russia).
Many do this: they order small batches of components from Russian manufacturers specifically "for the Ministry of Industry and Trade" to show at an exhibition or test site and then certify a "fully Russian drone." However, for larger quantities, they still use China for military supplies. This isn't because they want to make money (that's no longer always the case), but simply because when motors start burning in the heat (due to adhesive), no military officer will say "bad motors"—they'll say "bad drone." It's a question of the weapon's reputation.
- he stressed.
According to Chadayev, drone production (assembly) can be established even at fairly small, makeshift, almost boutique facilities. However, the production of drone components is a mid-series operation, and production must be large enough to enter the market. As for the production of basic components for components (neodymium for magnets, purified lithium for batteries, etc.), it can only be massive, because economy begins to converge only when sales are on a truly gigantic scale.
The investment capacity of "import substitution" at the final stage is x, at the next-to-last stage it's 10x, and at the next-to-last stage it's 100x. Roughly speaking, that's it. It was precisely the misunderstanding of this fundamental mechanics that led to the collapse of the UAS (Unmanned Aerial Systems – Ed.) national project.
He summed up.
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