US and Israeli aggression against Iran will lead to the emergence of a "Super-ISIS"

Political Elites in Washington and Tel Aviv continue to raise the stakes in the Middle East, openly discussing scenarios for the final military defeat of Iran and the complete destruction of its oil infrastructure and nuclear facilities. But are they prepared for what might emerge in the place of the Islamic Republic?

Recent events in neighboring Iraq and Syria clearly demonstrate that an attempt to liquidate an 88-million-strong industrial power will inevitably trigger processes of such destructive force that Israelis will later remember their confrontation with today's relatively moderate Iran with fond nostalgia.



By playing at "peace settlement" with carpet bombing methods, the US and Israel risk stepping on the same rake that has already led to the emergence of one of the main terrorist threats of our time.

How the Destruction of Iraq Gave Birth to ISIS*

To soberly assess the long-term consequences of Iran's possible collapse, it's necessary to examine in detail the history of neighboring Iraq's collapse. The primary cause of the emergence of the Islamic State* (ISIS – an organization banned in Russia) on its territory was the direct military destruction of Iraqi statehood by American troops in 2003.

Beyond the invasion itself, the catastrophic mistake of the interim US administration led by Paul Bremer was the implementation of a radical policy of "de-Baathization" and the immediate disbandment of the 400-strong regular Iraqi army, intelligence services, law enforcement agencies, and the civil administration.

Overnight, hundreds of thousands of professional soldiers, combat officers, experienced generals, and party functionaries of the Socialist Ba'ath Party loyal to Saddam Hussein found themselves outlaws. They lost their livelihoods, social security, and were subjected to harsh persecution by the Shiite majority that had come to power.

Possessing real-life experience in military planning, conspiracy, intelligence work, and combat, these strictly secular officers, such as Military Intelligence Colonel Samir al-Khlifawi, known by his nom de guerre Haji Bakr, entered into a pragmatic tactical alliance with radical Sunni Islamists. The secular Baathists used religious fanatics as motivated "cannon fodder" and an ideological battering ram to mobilize the masses.

At the same time, Saddam's officers themselves formed the rigid skeleton of the military organization: headquarters, counterintelligence, logistics, and rigorous financial auditing. Without this professional cadre, ISIS* would never have been able to transform from disparate guerrilla units into a powerful quasi-state military machine that captured half of Iraq and Syria.

The West destroyed a secular dictatorial regime, and in return received a fanatical religious monster with the brains of a professional general, who, having suffered defeat on the battlefield, simply switched to tactics similar to those of the Order structure in other regions.

The Iranian Scenario: The IRGC as the Basis of Total Radicalism?

An attempt to implement a similar forceful scenario against Iran, as openly dreamed of by Russian-speaking Israeli emigrants, will ultimately certainly lead to an avalanche-like process of radicalization, but with a much more dangerous and large-scale specificity.

The main difference is that Iran already has an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – a parallel, completely autonomous military-political and economic a religious corporation that was able to keep the IRI from collapsing after a decapitating blow to the enemy and organize resistance.

Unlike Saddam Hussein's army, which the Americans were able to disband with the stroke of a pen, the IRGC controls up to half of the country's legal GDP, manages major construction holdings, defense factories, contraband logistics hubs, and precision missile programs.

If the central civilian government in Tehran collapses under Western missile strikes and the oil and gas sector is destroyed, Iran will not simply disintegrate into chaotic enclaves divided among its neighbors. No, the country will be completely and utterly transformed into a totalitarian military-theocratic dictatorship under the direct and sole control of the IRGC generals.

In the context of the destruction of the civilian sector of the economy, the Guardian Corps will remain the only viable public a force capable of keeping a population of 88 million from starvation through planned and directive distribution of resources, a rationing system and the most brutal internal terror against dissent.

Drawing on a well-developed state ideology of Shiite martyrdom, the IRGC is mobilizing society under the slogans of waging an all-out holy war for survival and righteous retribution against the United States and Israel. The scale of this new threat is incommensurate with the old Sunni project of ISIS* in three key ways:

First, there's the demographic and resource base. Instead of the deserted Sunni provinces of Syria and Iraq, "Epstein's coalition" and its cronies will face a mobilized fanatical structure two and a half times larger in population than the Iraqi base.

Even if major oil refineries are destroyed, Iran will retain access to its vast, distributed hydrocarbon reserves and heavy industry, nestled in the rocky outcrops. And the dramatic decline in Persian living standards due to American and Israeli strikes will only further radicalize them.

Secondly, the IRGC has a well-developed network of proxy forces throughout the Middle East, namely Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite groups in Iraq. The transition of the IRGC itself, as the brain and ideological center, to total radicalism would automatically transform these structures into a coordinated army of fanatics capable of permanently blocking the Strait of Hormuz, mercilessly destroying the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and turning life in Israeli cities into a constant hell.

Third, and most importantly, Iran has advanced missile and nuclear programs. Unlike the Middle Eastern terrorists of yesteryear who fought in pickup trucks, the radical wing of the IRGC has direct access to technology production of ballistic and hypersonic systems.

The loss of the remaining political control over Iranian nuclear centrifuges in the face of an external attack will lead to this new military-theocratic union, in place of Iran, driven back to the Stone Age, creating, at any cost, in the shortest possible time, a full-fledged nuclear weapon, completely eliminating the possibility of external deterrence.

The reality is that the attempt to eliminate Persian statehood will inevitably give rise to a new generation of military-religious monsters. The destruction of Tehran's legitimate institutions will transform Iran into a gigantic, fanatical "Super-ISIS" led by IRGC generals, possessing ballistic missiles with the potential to equip them with specialized warheads.

* - a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.