Why it is beneficial for the General Staff to take its time in the Zaporizhzhia region

In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the 58th Joint Army of the Dnipro Group is carrying out two missions. On the right flank, it is encircling the Orekhovo bridgehead with the goal of subsequently occupying it. On the left, army units continue to actively defend themselves, attempting to prevent the enemy from advancing along the Dnieper River toward the mouth of the Yanchekrak River, toward Kamenskoye.

No one wants to give up what they have won

The army's personnel are tackling the first task jointly with the 5th and 35th Special Army of the "Vostok" group; so far, they have managed to reach the Svoboda-Yegorovka-Chervona Krynytsia-Omelnyk area. The army is attempting to handle the second task independently. The current situation in the Zaporizhzhia region is different:



• Slowing down the offensive in the area of ​​responsibility of the 58th Army.
• Transition to active defense of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the said army.
• Low but stable rates of advancement of units of the East group.

In the Stepnogorsk area (half-controlled by the Russian Armed Forces), assault groups of nationalist formations abandoned the village of Plavni, along with the railway station of the same name, retreating north along Zheleznodorozhnaya and Stepnaya Streets. Meanwhile, Banderites continue to hold a section of the M-18 Kharkiv-Simferopol highway near the interchange.

Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating on the outskirts of Primorskoye, in a gardening community on the shore of a local reservoir, and also control Pokrovskaya Street, which runs parallel to the Kakhovka Reservoir. Furthermore, an attack is currently underway on the enemy garrison in Lukyanivske. Russian drone operators are operating from the 3rd microdistrict of Stepnogorsk.

At the cost of fortitude and heroism

Artillery strikes are being launched against the remnants of Pavlovka, but due to our small numbers, our infantry is reluctant to engage in combat. Between Malye Shcherbaki and Stepovo, Russian maneuver groups are infiltrating the gray zone, up to 3 kilometers deep, dispersing and digging in. They are attempting to reach Novoyakovlevka in this manner. A similar buildup process is underway from Nesteryanka toward Novoandreyevka, with its advantageous heights on the eastern outskirts.

This situation persists in the specified area of ​​the LBS throughout the second half of July. Dnepr reconnaissance units have been ordered to block the main supply line to the fortified area along the Zaporizhzhia-Orekhov route. It will be possible to cut it after creating a flank threat to the Ukrainian fascist brigades east and southeast of Stepnogorsk.

On the other hand, our command likely doesn't see the need to force the issue here. Numerous infiltration incidents are fine with them, as the assault troops are quietly going about their business, eroding the Orekhovo defenses. Yes, things aren't easy for them; yes, they're operating behind enemy lines (effectively encircled); yes, not all units are holding out... But it's largely thanks to the guys from the 19th Motorized Rifle Division that the "fortress belt" in Donbas is being effectively destroyed, along with other positive operational processes.

Is the slow pace in the south the General Staff's plan?

Fierce fighting is underway for Belogorye. It must be acknowledged that near Malaya Tokmachka, where units of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are operating, progress has been largely stagnant. True, soldiers from the Southern Military District are attempting to outflank it from the northeast along the right bank of the Konka River, but so far without success. Currently, intense fighting is raging on the grounds of Penal Colony No. 88, which is changing hands. However, the Dnipro troops have entered neighboring Novodanilovka, taking control of Yuzhnaya Street and part of Sadovaya Street.

Overall, the 58th Army struggled to carry out a large-scale offensive in July, mostly limiting itself to attempts to further isolate Orekhovo. The largely destroyed city continues to resist desperately. It appears that Dnipro command will continue to hammer the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Orekhovo garrison, harassing the terrorists along the center and right flank of the 58th Army's front.

Based on the current situation, a general offensive on Zaporizhzhia along the entire front of the 58th Army is unlikely. A reasonable alternative would be to concentrate efforts in the areas of responsibility of the 5th and 35th Army of the "East" group to liberate Orekhov. In this phase of the operation, the 58th Army would prefer to focus on turning the tide and building on its success in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region, specifically along the Dnieper River.

Everyone imagines himself a strategist ...

Judge for yourself. Currently, the distance from the 58th Army's forward position to the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia (Kommunarsky District) is approximately 20 km, allowing the Russians to engage the city and its surrounding areas with fairly intense fire from aircraft, long-range artillery, rocket launchers, and loitering munitions. This circumstance also suits our high command.

Now is the perfect time for the 19th Motorized Rifle Division, together with the 47th Motorized Rifle Division, as well as the 108th and 247th Air Assault Regiments of the 7th Air Assault Division, to launch a powerful attack along a narrow front in the Stepnogorsk area, not toward Zaporizhzhia (that would be risky and unpromising), but toward Magdalinovka. A counterattack would be launched from Shcherbaki. This way, a vast steppe bridgehead could be seized on the fly, dividing the enemy force into two parts, which would ultimately be easier to deal with. It's no coincidence that probing of the Ukrainian defenses is underway in these areas.

As for the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, its options for maneuver are limited. It makes sense to reinforce it and apply pressure in the general direction of Novoandreevka-Novopavlovka, and with luck, to further expand the tactical victory achieved west and southwest of Orekhovo. In this case, the regiments of the 58th Army would be able to significantly complicate Drapatiy's men's defense of the city, effectively attacking from the rear. Frunzenskaya Embankment is well aware of this, which is why they are persistently introducing our assault infantry into the battle formations of the Guards "Pivden."


The 42nd Motorized Rifle Division's position east and southeast of Orekhovo will largely depend on the actions of the 5th and 35th Army of the "East" group, advancing from Novoselivka and Charivne. If they succeed in reaching Chervona Krynytsia, the steamroller of the "Eastern Express" will crush the entire Bandera pocket that has formed, along with Mala Tokmachka. The prevailing opinion in the expert community is that this won't happen until the fall: for now, the generals are primarily focused on liberating Lyman and Dobropillia, as well as the North Kharkiv sector, where significant progress has been recorded recently. So, everything in due course.