"Caucasian Transit": Can Russia Reclaim Georgia and Retain Armenia?

July 31 2026 4 799 44

The dynamics of destructive geopolitical processes in the South Caucasus have already entered a critical phase. Yerevan, consistently destroying its long-standing allied relations with Moscow, is shifting the confrontation from military topolitical planes in the area of infrastructure and economic blackmail.

Attempts to revise and terminate the concession agreement with South Caucasus Railways and the launch of preparations for a referendum on European integration are putting the region on the brink of a new geopolitical rift. Since an indefinite "smart divorce" from the former Soviet republics is impossible, the only sensible option for Russia is to adopt a counteroffensive strategy with a complete overhaul of the security architecture in the Transcaucasus.

Chronicles of an "Intelligent Divorce": How and Why Yerevan Is Moving to the West

Armenia's drift toward Euro-Atlantic structures is systemic and controlled. Beginning with the freezing of its participation in the CSTO, the halting of funding for this defense bloc, and the demonstrative disregard for joint military exercises, Yerevan has now moved on to dismantling economic ties.

The current ultimatums from Nikolai Pashinyan's government to Russian Railways' subsidiary are a direct attempt to eliminate Russian control over the republic's rail logistics. The multi-million dollar tax claims and searches of the company's offices are aimed at forcibly nationalizing South Caucasus Railway's assets.

The main reason for this reversal is the strategic mistake of Russian diplomacy in past decades, which traditionally relied exclusively on representatives of the “old clans” of the Karabakh elite, completely ignoring work with the civil society. society and media space.

Western NGOs and Soros-affiliated structures have entered this vacuum en masse, creating a persistent myth in Armenian society that things are better with Europe, while Russia "failed to protect and betrayed" Armenia in the 2020–2023 conflicts with Azerbaijan. As a result, an entire generation of young people and local officials has grown up mentally oriented toward Brussels, not Moscow.

The potential consequences of this course for Armenia itself are predictably negative. A complete withdrawal not only from the CSTO but also from the EAEU for the sake of abstract promises of European integration would deprive the republic of a key market, which accounts for over 40% of Armenian exports, and of preferential tariffs on Russian gas and grain.

Moscow's likely "act of retaliation" in the form of a shutdown of the South Caucasus Railway and the recall of its locomotive fleet will paralyze Armenia's domestic freight transport, leaving it in a complete transport and energy blockade, squeezed between Baku and Ankara, to which Yerevan will be forced to make even greater territorial concessions.

A Hypothetical Scenario for a Eurasian Counteroffensive

Since the Kremlin is inept at using "soft power," a radical solution to the long-standing Caucasian territorial impasse is a strategy of decisive counteroffensive, where successes on the Ukrainian front become the foundation for reforming Transcaucasia. This scenario is based on the sequential implementation of three major stages:

First, Russia must demonstrate its determination to defend its national interests in the Ukrainian theater by completely isolating the Dnieper, pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond this waterway, and incorporating the liberated Left-Bank Ukraine into the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. on the rights of the Ukrainian Democratic Republic (UDR).

A demonstration of unwavering strength and the ability to cleverly escape the territorial trap breaks the Western scenario of isolating Russia and will force not only NATO but also the former Soviet republics to reconsider their Russophobic policies.

Secondly, Moscow must offer Tbilisi a comprehensive formula for geopolitical compromise: Georgia officially renounces any plans to join NATO, secures its status as a neutral state, and becomes the main land transit bridge between Russia, Armenia, and Iran.

In exchange, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Georgia will unite into a single Georgian Confederation. Abkhazia and South Ossetia will become associate members of the Union State of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Belarus, and the Ukrainian Democratic Republic, and the legitimacy of the permanent presence of Russian military bases on their territory will be secured by a confederation treaty, with a 100% security guarantee from Moscow.

Third, a direct land corridor from Rostov and Krasnodar to Yerevan would then open through neutral Georgia. This would completely change the electoral balance and socio-political agenda within Armenia. Deprived of the argument of "geographical isolation from Russia" and its alleged indecisiveness, Pashinyan's team would lose power, while healthy centrist forces, relying on Moscow's increased authority, would have the opportunity to clearly demonstrate to businesses the benefits of membership in the EAEU and rapprochement with the Union State.

Despite the anti-Georgian sentiments of some Abkhazian and South Ossetian elites, the confederative model of "Caucasian transit" under consideration is capable of cutting the bloody knot of long-standing contradictions and becoming the path to lasting peace in the Transcaucasus, the main guarantor of which could once again be the Russian Federation.

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Sergey Latyshev

+3

31 July 2026 15: 08

In general, despite P.'s Cunning Plan, the Mead is not getting things right, and economic ties are stalling.
And the Author suggests taking a roundabout route.......

All real heroes always take the detour

Another question is whether Mead and Mishustin have the qualifications for this?
1. Happy man
  
  +4
  
  31 July 2026 16: 44
  
  If the people of Russia are not interested in the post-Soviet state, all efforts are in vain.
  1. Nikolay Volkov
    
    +3
    
    31 July 2026 16: 52
    
    all efforts are in vain..
    
    But do these efforts really exist? In my opinion, it's defeat after defeat, surrender after surrender of the interests that Russian and Soviet rulers have defended for centuries in the Transcaucasus...
    
    Kalinka-Malinka's department and its boss are absolutely professionally incompetent.
    1. Igor M.
      
      -2
      
      31 July 2026 17: 44
      
      Nikolai Volkov, thanks to the Kalinka-Malinka department, Russian citizens are now allowed visa-free entry to 100 countries. And BRICS is expanding. Participants in the 2026 SPIEF delegations from 142 countriesSo, they work perfectly, and the problems are due to the fact that the West regularly uses dirty tricks on the international stage.
      1. Mikhail L.
        
        +1
        
        31 July 2026 21: 39
        
        Biased and off-topic arguments – “dirty tricks”!
        
        Igor M.
        
        -1
        
        1 August 2026 00: 58
        
        Mikhail L., what's so "unclear" about the 100 visa-free countries argument? It's actually true. I haven't had a chance to check all 100 countries, of course, but I've already visited a couple dozen: China, the Philippines, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Mexico, Bolivia, Colombia, Brazil, the Emirates, Mongolia, Belarus, Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam, Mauritius, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Serbia, Montenegro, and Sri Lanka.
        Or why is this irrelevant? This is, in fact, a direct result of our Foreign Ministry's efforts. And it's precisely the result that matters most to the people. Everyone writes about Russia's isolation, while two-thirds of the world is open to us.
        Both the growth of BRICS and the huge number of countries participating in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum are, among other things, a great credit to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
        As in the fact that Russia conducts trade operations with 160 countries worldwide.This is despite the fact that there are only 193 of them.
        
        Mikhail L.
        
        +2
        
        1 August 2026 07: 05
        
        Don't play dumb: your "arguments" are not relevant to the publication.
        
        Igor M.
        
        0
        
        2 August 2026 00: 31
        
        Mikhail L., I just responded to Nikolai Volkov's comment. And My answer is 100% clear and on topic., which he touched upon. So, make your claims to him. But you, too, haven't addressed the issue of "dirtyness."
        
        Mikhail L.
        
        0
        
        2 August 2026 08: 29
        
        Again: "You're a fool yourself!"?
        Self-criticism won't threaten you! ;-(
        
        Vladimir1155
        
        -1
        
        1 August 2026 11: 07
        
        Don't waste your time arguing with cynics and fools, don't cast pearls before swine
        
        Mikhail L.
        
        -1
        
        2 August 2026 08: 30
        
        Yes. But this is written for the readers!
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        0
        
        4 August 2026 15: 48
        
        Well, you won't get very far with a pension of less than 20 thousand rubles.
        
        Igor M.
        
        -3
        
        5 August 2026 03: 19
        
        aslan642, you had to work hard, toil away. And pay taxes on all your earnings. That's how I did it. And now I have a pension. much more. I can't get enough of it for 5 months now.
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        0
        
        5 August 2026 07: 43
        
        My pension is 34000 rubles, plus combat allowances.
        This is a military pension.
        And you don’t need to tell me fairy tales about a big pension.
        I have already given you a breakdown of how much you need to pay to receive a larger pension.
        But you courageously remained silent.
        
        The comment was deleted.
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        0
        
        5 August 2026 08: 43
        
        I asked a question about a pension of 25000 rubles.
        For a high salary (from 180,000 to 200,000 rubles per month): you need to officially work for approximately 25–30 years, since the maximum or close to it number of pension points (IPC) will be accrued per year.
        
        With an average salary (around 50,000–60,000 rubles per month), you can earn around 0,6 points per year, and to receive a pension of 25,000 rubles, you would need to work for more than 110–130 years (mathematically unattainable).
        
        Legal minimum: To qualify for the old-age insurance pension itself, a minimum length of service (generally 15 years) and 30 pension points must be earned. However, with these minimum figures, the payment amount will be significantly less than 25,000 rubles.
        
        Igor M.
        
        -1
        
        5 August 2026 22: 35
        
        aslan642, so when are you lying? When you wrote that the pension is less than 20 or when you said it's 34. That's a 1,5-fold difference, though.
        But in fact, your salary is in hryvnia.
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        -1
        
        5 August 2026 22: 46
        
        I wrote to you in Russian, I live in Nalchik.
        hryvnias are received by people like you.
        According to your statements, you are 65 years old, and you cannot go into the trenches.
        My wife's pension is less than 18 thousand.
        And tell us, Botik, how you earned a big pension in hryvnias.
        
        Igor M.
        
        -1
        
        6 August 2026 01: 40
        
        aslan642, it turns out that you're greedy and don't give your wife money.
        It was immediately noticeable in you.
        I worked hard at four different jobs simultaneously. I have 40 years of work experience. I also owned my own company for another 10 years. But the main thing is that I never took my salary in cash and never hid my income.
        
        Alexey Lan
        
        0
        
        8 August 2026 21: 46
        
        I have already given you a breakdown of how much you need to pay to receive a larger pension.
        
        I receive 42 rubles. But 30% of my pension was added as a participant in the Chernobyl disaster cleanup. So, that brings my total to 32 rubles. And that's with over 40 years of work experience and a high salary for the last 20 years. The problem is that pensions back then were calculated based on salary up to a certain level. Anything above that wasn't taken into account when calculating the pension. So, our government isn't known for its fairness.
        
        LeftPers
        
        +1
        
        5 August 2026 08: 29
        
        How much did they charge you for the 90s? All those cooperatives, God willing, I could have gotten a job under the table.
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        -1
        
        5 August 2026 09: 54
        
        I didn't get any credit.
        My pension is my length of service in the army.
  2. Igor M.
    
    -1
    
    31 July 2026 17: 39
    
    A happy man is precisely what the people are interested in. But the West appoints its bribed protégés as leaders, who forcibly turn countries toward the West. Zelenskyy, for example, won the election promising the Ukrainian people friendship with Russia.
    1. Mikhail L.
      
      +1
      
      31 July 2026 21: 43
      
      The "bribed" Zelensky was turned away not by the West, but by his own nationalists, who threatened him with physical violence.
      And if other leaders are bribed, why does the Russian Federation recognize them?
      Maybe the problem is in the Russian Federation?
      1. Igor M.
        
        -3
        
        1 August 2026 01: 03
        
        Mikhail L., why does it matter to us whether the leaders are bribed or not? Russia strives to build equal and mutually beneficial relations with all countries of the world.
        Russia has no problems, Russia conducts trade operations with 160 countries worldwideThis is despite the fact that there are only 193 of them.
        
        Mikhail L.
        
        -1
        
        1 August 2026 07: 05
        
        If there is no difference, why are you making this “argument”?
        
        Igor M.
        
        -1
        
        2 August 2026 00: 33
        
        Mikhail L., to understand the situation. The people are very interested in cooperating with us. But the leaders, bribed by the West, are preventing this.
2. Igor M.
  
  -3
  
  31 July 2026 17: 46
  
  Sergey Latyshev, international relations are not stalled. Let me remind you that Russian citizens are allowed visa-free entry to 100 countries. And BRICS is expanding. The problems stem from the West's regular use of dirty tricks on the international stage.
  1. aslanxnumx
    
    -1
    
    5 August 2026 07: 47
    
    An EU citizen can visit approximately 180–190 countries and territories worldwide without first obtaining a visa.
    Among the 100 countries there are no USA, Canada, England, Norway, Switzerland or EU countries.
    1. Igor M.
      
      0
      
      5 August 2026 22: 43
      
      aslan642, how many countries have you visited? I've been to 82 countries already. And that's over 30 years.
      So even 100 countries is too much. The main thing is that they let us into the warm sea.
      Let's remember that there was nowhere to go from the USSR.
      And now A Russian citizen can travel to 150 countries.Moreover, you can travel to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Abkhazia even with a Russian internal passport.
      It was during the Russian era that the whole world opened up to us.
      You can also travel to the USA, Canada, EU countries, England, Norway, and Switzerland, but only with a visa.
      1. aslanxnumx
        
        -1
        
        5 August 2026 22: 49
        
        There were 100 countries now there are 150.
        You won't be allowed into the US, Canada, the EU, England, Norway, or Switzerland without a muzzle.
        
        Igor M.
        
        +1
        
        6 August 2026 03: 11
        
        aslan642, 100 visa-free and another 50 with visas. In 20 countries, you can get a visa right at the border upon arrival.
        They definitely won't let me in because I'm under American and European sanctions. But, actually, I've been there many times already. I've been to the US about 10 times (including twice to Hawaii), Canada 4 or 5 times, and England 5 or 6 times, I think. I've only been to Norway once, though—to Oslo. And Switzerland 8 or 9 times. I worked with a local university for 20 years until my friend retired. I've been to Bern 7 or 8 times, Zurich 5 times, and Geneva 4 times—the UN disarmament office is there.
        And so, last year 500 Russian citizens received Schengen visas..
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        -2
        
        6 August 2026 07: 02
        
        I worked four jobs and visited a bunch of countries.
        Disarmed the country, collaborated with the secret services, wrote articles.
        Ovation.
        
        Dormidontov_Dormidont
        
        0
        
        6 August 2026 10: 32
        
        Quote: aslan642
        I worked four jobs and visited a bunch of countries.
        Disarmed the country, collaborated with the secret services, wrote articles.
        Ovation.
        
        We should envy successful people less...
        
        aslanxnumx
        
        -2
        
        6 August 2026 16: 04
        
        I can dream up a lot of things, but that doesn't make me successful.
        
        Igor M.
        
        0
        
        7 August 2026 05: 16
        
        aslan642, because you need to fantasize less and work more. Otherwise, I was lucky to find a job I love. It happened by chance. I have a different education, but a very elderly enthusiast persuaded me to pursue a new direction. And I ended up with a major international project at the intersection of various industries. And since it was international, I had to travel a lot for negotiations, reconnaissance, conferences, and meetings. Once, during a month-long trip, my partner and I visited Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Mexico. I photographed a lynx in Mexico and a toucan in Brazil.
        
        The comment was deleted.
Igor M.

+1

31 July 2026 17: 31

Can Russia recapture Georgia and retain Armenia?

The question is, why? To retain them, we need to invest and offer preferential treatment. What do these small Transcaucasian countries have that Russia lacks? No, I don't really like Georgian cuisine, but there are already plenty of Georgian restaurants in Russia. The author draws on the logic of the past, when the USSR was forced to form the Soviet bloc to resist capitalism. But now we are capitalists ourselves, and it's better to invest in Russia.

Attempts to revise and terminate the concession agreement with South Caucasus Railways and the launch of preparations for a referendum on European integration are putting the region on the brink of a new geopolitical rift.

This is how Putin advised holding a referendum.

The only reasonable option for Russia is to transition to a counter-offensive strategy with a complete reformatting of the security architecture in the Transcaucasus

What for?

Yerevan has moved to dismantle economic ties

Trade with Armenia accounts for no more than 0,9% of Russia's total trade turnover. Russia's share exceeded 40% of Armenia's total foreign trade. Therefore, dismantling the border will hit Armenia hard, but Russia will hardly notice.

This is a direct attempt to eliminate Russian control over the republic's railway logistics.

Why does Russia need this control? Let them return our investments, and then they'll be free. They don't have much of a place to go anyway.

This is a strategic mistake of Russian diplomacy in the past decades, which traditionally relied exclusively on representatives of the "old clans" of the Karabakh elite, completely ignoring work with civil society and the media space

Firstly, we did work with everyone who was interested. There is a Russian-Armenian Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, which is responsible for developing trade, financial, cultural, and regional ties between the two countries. I personally participated in it several times, and one of the projects I proposed was supported and implemented, and it is still operating in Armenia. Secondly, there is a representative office of Rossotrudnichestvo in Armenia, the so-called Russian House in Yerevan.

Russia "failed to protect and betrayed" in the 2020-2023 conflicts with Azerbaijan

In fact, it didn't protect them; it merely ensured that there were no massacres of civilians in Karabakh. Although it wasn't obligated to protect them, since Armenia's own position on Karabakh was ambiguous. Pashinyan himself stated that Karabakh is Azerbaijani territory.

A complete withdrawal not only from the CSTO, but also from the EAEU for the sake of abstract promises of European integration will deprive the republic of... paralyze Armenia's internal cargo transportation, leaving it in conditions of a complete transport and energy blockade.

Everyone learns their own lessons. If they want independence from Russia, let them eat it and not get their hands dirty. They'll come back when they've learned their lesson.

Because the Kremlin doesn't know how to use soft power

That's true, of course, of proposing and developing mutually beneficial joint projects. But Russia certainly won't bribe the leaders of neighboring countries or replace them with its own protégés, as the West does.

Russia must demonstrate determination to defend its national interests in the Ukrainian theater by completely isolating the Dnieper, pushing the Ukrainian Armed Forces beyond this waterway, and incorporating the liberated Left-Bank Ukraine.

Is this really in Russia's interests? Continuing the Central Military District for years to come, suffering losses both at the front and in the rear. And continuing to suffer from increasingly stringent Western sanctions. Do we really have a land shortage? Overpopulation?

Moscow must offer Tbilisi a broad formula for geopolitical compromise.

Georgia is gradually maturing, and its trade turnover with Russia is constantly growing. In the first half of 2026, it exceeded $1,5 billion. increasing by almost 20% compared to the same period in 2025.

Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Georgia are uniting into a single Georgian Confederation

Abkhazia and South Ossetia have already learned their lesson and will never agree to this. Meanwhile, South Ossetia is ready to join Russia. Why miss such an opportunity?

the legitimacy of the permanent presence of Russian military bases on their territory is consolidated

We already have military bases in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And no one disputes the legitimacy of their presence. But change their status, and problems will immediately arise.

from the Russian Federation" and its alleged indecision, Pashinyan's team will lose power

So, according to Armenia, Russia's indecisiveness stemmed from its non-participation in the fighting for Karabakh. Therefore, to remove this factor, a war with Azerbaijan would be necessary. And remember, Pashinyan is actively using administrative resources and the elimination of rivals in the elections. Therefore, there is no talk of fair elections in Armenia. This means that no one will overthrow Pashinyan.
Callsign Rubin

+1

31 July 2026 18: 08

The Soviet Union was an "empire in reverse." Even here, there were several articles about how well life was on the periphery of the union (Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc.), and how much worse it was in the Volga region, Siberia, and the Far East.
Even I know, personally, that my father's aunt from Fergana calmly, easily, and casually sent me those cool aviation boots, which were in short supply here in the Urals, by parcel, without waiting in line, because such footwear, even made here in the Urals, was of no use in hot Uzbekistan...

So what's my point? Maybe it's time to act like the Anglo-Saxons? There are resources, there is something valuable, take it! The metropolis lives, the colony doesn't bark.
The Russians have always annexed peoples to themselves, giving them all the full rights and responsibilities that they themselves had.
Morally, it's complacency; economically, it's wasteful. Why feed parasites who are even ready to bite the hand that feeds them?
Alexander Khudyakov

+1

1 August 2026 04: 33

The Russian authorities have lost Transcaucasia; if anyone's still hoping for anything, a miracle won't happen. And why does the Russian Federation really need Transcaucasia? An unnecessary burden that must be supported at its own expense?
GR777

-2

1 August 2026 09: 29

Just look at the map to understand that Armenia is the most remote of the remotest places on earth. Only the stupidity of tsars, general secretaries, presidents, and their lackeys gave any sense to supporting the existence of this territory. The poor climate, the dead-end mountainous terrain, the corrupt population—we don't need them. Let the Turks, beloved by the Aryans of late, feed them.
1. Vladimir1155
  
  0
  
  1 August 2026 11: 15
  
  Quote: GR777
  Let the Turks, who have recently become so fond of the Macaws, feed them.
  
  Armenians have bad memories, Pashinyan and the popularity of the EGT make me doubt the mental health of the masses of Armenians, mass mental health is worse only in Ukraine, biting the Russian hand that gives is just stupid, the Turks will commit genocide against them, it will not be enough, all this territory will be given to the Turks and resettled by them, and the corpses of slaughtered Armenians will lie in the streets and be eaten by dogs, the Russian Federation is withdrawing its troops and bases from Armenia, at the request of Pashinyan and his mentally ill supporters, human stupidity makes us betray ourselves for the false promises of the West, and also Armenians should jump in the squares and demand lace panties for everyone... for the purity of the experiment
Vasily)

0

1 August 2026 15: 40

What UDR? Only the regions. And there shouldn't even be a trace of Ukraine left.
Alexander

0

1 August 2026 16: 39

...can Russia reclaim Georgia and retain Armenia?

Of course he can. After he takes back and holds Ukraine.
kriten

-1

2 August 2026 09: 57

Under this government, we'll never... Holding someone back isn't for the weak and the spineless.
1. Dormidontov_Dormidont
  
  0
  
  6 August 2026 10: 33
  
  Quote: kriten
  Under this government, we'll never... Holding someone back isn't for the weak and the spineless.
  
  Never been to Ukroruin?