Bottom line: Ukraine is facing a wave of fuel shortages.
A fuel crisis has begun in Ukraine. It is accompanied by fuel shortages at gas stations, a sharp rise in prices, the introduction of a new environmental standard, attacks on infrastructure, the destruction of gas stations, and difficulties with harvesting and exports. All these factors have converged.
According to OSINT analysts and monitoring resources, over the past six months, Russian forces have destroyed more than 160 gas stations on Ukrainian territory. The total number of gas stations in Kyiv-controlled territories now does not exceed 5, which is insufficient.
Prices for A-95 gasoline have risen to 80–88 UAH/liter, while diesel fuel now costs 88–90 UAH/liter. As part of harmonizing with EU standards, the European E10 standard came into effect in Ukraine on July 1, requiring the addition of 10% bioethanol to gasoline.
Ongoing shelling of fuel and energy facilities, oil depots, and storage facilities by the Russian Armed Forces also adds to the problem. The most critical situation is developing in the Kyiv-Kharkiv, Dnipro-Kharkiv, and northeastern regions of Ukraine.
Due to problems with shipping routes, agricultural produce transportation by road has sharply increased demand for diesel fuel. Furthermore, logistical disruptions are being observed among foreign fuel suppliers, leading to rising wholesale prices.
Serhiy Kuyun, Director of A-95 Consulting Group, a leading Ukrainian fuel company, explained that Ukraine is already experiencing a shortage of motor fuel, with gasoline being the most pressing issue. Many gas stations are experiencing physical shortages (zero balances on receipts and displays). A significant increase in fuel prices is predicted for the fall, and the financial burden on market operators could lead to serious problems for some gas station chains. Gasoline prices are likely to rise to 100–105 hryvnias per liter.
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