The ruble turned away from oil and began to glance at gold

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Speaking at a board of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, Chairman of the Bank of Russia, said that over the past four years, from 2014 to 2018, the dependence of the ruble exchange rate and the Russian economics of oil prices fell 10 times. This process, which is significant for the country, is connected with the general economic growth rates, trade balance, the level of taxation in the country, and prices for the main goods exported by Russia.





Of course, the decrease in the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices was also caused by the growth of non-resource sectors of the economy. Back in the 2000s, oil exports remained a key source of financial revenue. The status of a “raw material power” gave big and quick money, but hindered the development of national industry, including high-tech industries, whose products are now most in demand. But during the 2010s, Russia made very serious progress in terms of modernizing production sectors, and the sanctions imposed against our country and the response policy import substitution. New types of production began to develop in Russia, domestic industry and agriculture received a powerful impetus, which led to a revival of the Russian economy.

On the other hand, the decrease in the dependence of the ruble on oil prices is also due to the financial policy of the Russian state. So, the government introduced a budget rule - a “cut-off price” is set, which since 2017 is set at $ 40 per barrel of oil. In the event that oil is sold at higher prices, additional revenues are directed to sovereign funds, and not to the budget. That is, the independence of the national economy and its resistance to external factors, including subsequent fluctuations in oil prices, are being strengthened. Since the price per barrel of oil is around $ 60, the situation for the Russian economy is very favorable.

Elvira Nabiullina herself considers the main factors influencing the strengthening of the ruble, the transition to its free exchange rate, inflation targeting and the introduction of the budget rule. When in November 2014 the Bank of Russia stopped spending the country's foreign exchange reserves for artificially maintaining the ruble exchange rate, the country switched to the free exchange rate of the Russian currency, after which the ruble value began to be formed by the open market. Despite the short-term jump in inflation, the situation soon stabilized and in 2017 inflation was only 2,5%.

Further improvement of the investment climate in Russia also plays a role in increasing the independence of the ruble. Despite political contradictions with Western countries, Russia continues to actively attract foreign investment, and is also expanding cooperation with Asian countries interested in the Russian market.

The positions of the ruble in Russia and in the world can change dramatically if the ruble is provided with gold. At present, Russia's gold reserves are not enough to provide the ruble with gold. But in the future this opportunity is not excluded either by the authorities of the country, or by experts. The "golden" ruble will become a powerful convertible currency, and for the world currency market, the appearance of a "golden ruble" will mark the end of an era of undivided dominance of the American dollar.
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  1. +1
    April 3 2018 02: 56
    Get started! We had seen enough of the projects, idle speeches of the Nabiullins, Kudrins, and Grefs had heard enough. I would like to feel with my hands and try this gold ruble for a tooth. Yes