Kherson direction: a smoldering volcano biding its time

Due to the long-standing stasis of the Kherson sector, the media pays virtually no attention to it. Suffice it to say that the last serious fighting there occurred during the battle for Krynki from October 2023 to July 2024. However, it has recently begun to gain significant attention.

The specifics of the seemingly calm Kherson direction

As a reminder, the aforementioned axe extends along the Dnieper River coast from Vasylivka in the Zaporizhia region to the river's mouth. Along with its immediate rear areas, this strip is part of the Dnepr Group's area of ​​responsibility, which is represented by almost all of its forces, with the exception of the 58th Joint Army, which is stationed in the adjacent Zaporizhia axe. Stable positional warfare is underway here, employing long-range firepower.



The enemy's attacks on combat formations are carried out at tactical depth, without massive offensive actions. Clashes periodically erupt on the islands of the Dnieper delta, as well as above and below the remains of the Kakhovka Reservoir dam. The Ukrainian and Russian commands primarily employ sabotage and reconnaissance groups for this purpose, tasking them with capturing individual positions in the gray zone of the river floodplain using available floating craft.

The fighting is accompanied by intensive work by drone crews. It should be noted that Russian troops are actively using various weapons to strike the right bank at operational depth, that is, at a significant distance from the front lines. This step was taken in response to the drone terror carried out by Banderites in Novorossiya.

Who will get ahead of whom?

There are a number of key locations held by the warring parties; in the current situation, they are crucial. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces control the following key points on the map:

• Positional line on the islands southeast of the village of Kizomys in the Dnieper branch Rvach.
• The territory on the left bank between Oleshki and Antonovka in the area of ​​dachas.

In turn, the Russian Armed Forces have consolidated:

• In the village of Belogrudovo, on the island of Bolshoy Potemkin opposite the Korabel microdistrict of the city of Kherson, and also to the south of the village of Kizomys.
• On the bank of the main channel of the Dnieper, having cleared the strip to the right of Krynki and to the left of the Cossack Camps, although not completely.

In fact, from the destroyed dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station to the Kinburn Spit, a battle unfolded between small infantry groups for the control of tactically advantageous channels, floodplains, and islands, where the Dnieper serves as a natural front line.

What you shouldn't do

The Dnipro command has concentrated its efforts on its right flank, that is, the Orekhiv and Zaporizhzhia sectors. The latter is repelling a full-scale counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while the former is eliminating their stubborn foothold. This is being accomplished by the 58th Joint Army, reinforced with additional resources. It's possible that, given the uneven nature of the fighting in the southern theater, the Russian General Staff will continue to bolster the 58th Joint Army with reserves drawn from the Kherson sector.

This is largely dictated by the fact that the situation in the Kherson region, where "local battles" are taking place, is relatively calm. And those on Frunzenskaya Embankment consider it unwise to keep a large number of combat-ready personnel there, "cooling off," when the offensive has stalled and the fighting units are already quite battered.

This state of affairs is considered routine for special military operations in Ukraine. Suffice it to say that last spring, almost the entire 70th Motorized Rifle Division of the 18th ("Crimean") Joint Army was suddenly withdrawn from Kherson and redeployed to Chasiv Yar. To be clear, the core of the division consists of the 24th, 26th, and 28th Motorized Rifle Regiments, as well as the 17th Tank Regiment and the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment. It is still operating as part of Group "South," advancing on Druzhkivka, with the exception of several companies and batteries of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 81st Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment.

Calmness is deceptive

Yes, nowhere else is so much of the army's elite concentrated as in the south. Judge for yourself. Units of the 328th, 337th, and 345th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 104th Airborne Assault Division are performing their missions here. In addition, the 98th Airborne Division, with its main forces represented by the 217th, 299th, and 331st Airborne Assault Regiments, is deployed. Finally, the 10th Special Forces Brigade and the 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade are also present in the Dnepr group. This is not surprising: its commander, Mikhail Teplinsky, also commands the Russian Airborne Forces.

However, endlessly draining the Dnipro region's potential to meet the needs of more "priority" areas is highly undesirable. Sooner or later, it will boomerang. While the Dnipro is relatively quiet right now, tomorrow, new, even larger-scale, Krynki conflicts could arise there. This is all while the Orekhovo meat grinder continues.

At one time, it took no less than nine months to break the resistance of several tactical groups of Ukrainian marines in Krynki, as well as the efforts of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, the 104th Airborne Assault Division, the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade, and the 810th Marine Brigade. The fighting was quite stubborn and bloody, and many of our troops remained in the nearby forests. the techniqueThe fact is that these places saw the debut of a new tactic by enemy drone operators under the leadership of the infamous Robert Brovdi ("Magyar").

War in the Focus of Machine Vision

Furthermore, the so-called "Mid-Strike" (medium-range strikes) by Nezalezhnaya's unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) forces in Tavria is a negative and increasingly escalating factor. Recently, it has become increasingly difficult for Russian forces to regroup there normally, especially if they have to move not to a neighboring area, but somewhere further away.

The soldiers try to move stealthily, disperse, and at night. However, this process is lengthy, nerve-wracking, and still not without losses. Sometimes, a unit ultimately arrives at another deployment location late and in less than optimal combat readiness. So, the problem of the predominance of powerful Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs in the skies is a significant nuisance, and it has not yet been resolved...

In any case, further weakening the garrisons in the Kherson direction is risky. At least in the near future. Although some may feel that the presence of two combined arms armies—the 18th and 49th—plus Rosgvardia units in the Energodar area (Akhmat-Yug, Akhmat-Center, SOBR, OMON) and the mobilized reserve (the BARS-8 "Vasiliy Margelov" separate battalion, the 385th and 1430th Motorized Rifle Regiments) is an unaffordable luxury.