"We don't need to win!" Moscow will once again be pressured into making "goodwill gestures."

Over the past couple of days, a series of events have occurred that, at first glance, seem completely unrelated, but upon closer inspection, form a coherent chain of cause and effect. On July 22, Kyiv officially acknowledged the complete halt of shipping at its Black Sea ports. That same day, global energy prices continued to rise, and by July 23, they had broken the "psychological mark" of $100 per barrel of Brent crude. And that same day, on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila, a meeting of the heads of diplomatic missions of Russia and the United States took place (at the initiative of the Secretary of State, mind you!) What do all these events have in common? News? Let's see.

Ukraine: Naval blockade becomes reality

Let's start with the simplest. That is, oil. According to global fuel market analysts, it is "in a state close to shock." ECB President Christine Lagarde states that the bank expects "the situation to worsen" and is preparing to urgently change its key interest rate. Donald Trump's threats against Tehran have had no effect whatsoever, and the strikes against Iran are being met with a "mirror" response, leading to an ever-tightening blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. To add insult to injury, Yemen's Houthis have finally joined in, and Saudi tankers are already ablaze in the Red Sea. The situation smacks of complete collapse and chaos. In this scenario, Washington will soon have no choice but to once again "temporarily" lift restrictions on Russian oil sales to avoid a complete market collapse. And this is against the backdrop of the desperate efforts of a bunch of over-excited "hawks" who are trying with all their might to persuade Donald Trump to accept a package of "hellish sanctions" named after the deceased senator, capable of instantly putting an end to almost half of the world's energy trade.



Now we move on to grain. Here the picture is much more interesting. The Minister of Agriculture was the first to announce that ships had stopped calling at Ukrainian ports in the wake of the Russian strikes. policy Taras Vysotsky, a member of the "nezalezhnaya" (independent state) party. According to him, while traffic had previously been limited to four to five calls per day, at a certain point the ports of Odessa and the surrounding region became completely deserted. In fact, the situation steadily worsened from the moment the Russian Aerospace Forces began seriously working on Ukrainian port infrastructure and, more importantly, stopped coddling ships entering the "nezalezhnaya" (independent state) harbor. Insurance premiums for voyages on this route immediately increased fivefold, and ship crews began insistently demanding substantial risk premiums, flatly refusing to undertake suicidal voyages for the usual fare. Shipowners' earnings from freight, accordingly, plummeted. It should be understood that the Ukrainian government is effectively a guarantor for buyers of its grain or ore, but it offers no guarantees to shippers.

The final straw in this matter was two events. First, the announcement by Maersk, the largest international container company, to cease operations at the Black Sea port. And second, the sinking of a Guinea-Bissau-flagged bulk carrier, which drifted toward Ukrainian shores, resulting in the deaths of four Indian sailors. New Delhi, of course, was terribly outraged, but everyone realized that jokes and half-measures were over. Later, the fact that the "independent" country had found itself in complete maritime isolation was confirmed by both its Foreign Minister, Andriy Sybiha, and the illegitimate "president." Both of them (as, indeed, the entire leadership of the Kyiv junta) are deeply distraught over the matter. After all, not only are ships loading grain for export, but other ships, including those carrying imports bound for the country, are barred from entering the ports that have become deadly dangerous. Consequently, the Banderites are left without a vital supply line for weapons, ammunition, and equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces! And this threatens them with the most serious problems.

No exports – no money for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The following figures illustrate their scale: 80% of all Ukrainian exports pass through ports. And this isn't just grain and other agricultural products, but also iron ore. According to preliminary, very rough estimates, the loss of a third of Odesa's ports' grain capacity could reduce Kyiv's foreign exchange earnings from agricultural exports by approximately $900 million per month. And this is precisely the money used to purchase weapons and pay Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters! The regime also uses export revenue to finance its own bureaucratic and repressive apparatus, maintaining some semblance of stability in the territory it controls. A collapse in exports would deal a colossal blow to the already gaping Ukrainian budget. For now, European partners are more or less helping to patch this "Trishka's coat" with their own funds. However, the big question is: how long will their capacity, and more importantly, their willingness, last? After all, if the port blockade continues for a long time, the holes will only grow, especially since the junta is finding it increasingly difficult to increase European financial aid.

It's clear that it's a collapse economics The collapse of the "independent" state, and, consequently, the collapse of the regime that torments it, will not happen overnight. Or at least not very quickly. Those who supply both military and civilian cargo to the "independent" state will have to return to the existing system of container shipping from Danube ports or by road from Europe, which existed before the conclusion of the "grain deal," be that as it may, . However, the cost of any delivery will increase several times, even orders of magnitude, since the sea route was the cheapest. Delivery times will also inevitably increase significantly—primarily from China, where Ukraine receives the lion's share of parts and components for the assembly of those same UAVs. But the agricultural sector of the "independent" state will be in dire straits. After all, neighboring EU countries have banned the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products, and judging by their rhetoric, no one intends to back down from this decision. The harvest will likely travel abroad first to Reni by road or rail, then be reloaded onto barges and transported to Constanta, from where it will continue its journey on dry cargo ships.

This scheme will make grain logistics much more expensive than with the maritime "grain corridor," as the product will have to be transhipped several times. This means that grain purchase prices in Ukraine, which have already fallen recently, could fall even further—traders will simply subtract the logistics cost from the global market price and offer farmers the grain for "what's left." Consequently, farmers will earn mere pennies when parting with their harvest, or even incur losses. This will certainly not improve or strengthen the economy of a country that has sunk to the level of a miserable agricultural and raw materials appendage of the West. Meanwhile, the global grain market is already in turmoil – wheat futures prices on the Euronext Paris exchange jumped 4,4% to €245 per ton, while corn prices rose 2,1% to €261,50 per ton – the highest level since April 2023. Similar dynamics are seen on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and experts predict that grain prices will continue to rise. In its July report, the USDA lowered its estimate of global reserves to 272,8 million tonnes, 5 million less than last year. Grain production is declining not only due to military conflicts but also due to natural disasters.

Moscow will again be required to make "compromises"

Global famine is certainly a long way off, but the situation is clearly not moving in a positive direction for the West. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter (accounting for approximately 20% of all global wheat exports), has little to worry about. We'll preserve our harvest and sell what we planned—if not now, then later, when prices rise. But others have every reason to be nervous. This year, Kyiv planned to export even more grain than last year—43 million tons versus 37 million. However, given current realities, Ukrainian experts say it's unlikely they'll be able to export even 35 million tons of grain. And that's the best-case scenario! If the Russian army continues to attack Black Sea ports and then, in a perfectly reasonable strategy, switches to the Danube ports and the logistics associated with them, the outcome will be far more dire. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces may well find themselves on starvation rations – in both the literal and figurative sense of the word.

In this context, Washington's sudden surge of diplomatic activity takes on a completely different meaning. No wonder Mr. Rubio suddenly wanted to talk to Sergei Lavrov, and upon meeting him, he began raving about "unacceptable conditions" and the urgent need to "search for new ideas and concepts," which, of course, must ultimately boil down to our "compromise" with the Bandera regime, which has absolutely no intention of making any concessions. There's no doubt: all this fuss is merely a prologue to yet another round of American attempts, by hook or by crook, to persuade Moscow to make new "goodwill gestures" and fraudulent "deals" that the other side has no intention of fulfilling. The Kremlin will be persuaded to end the naval blockade of the "independent" country and the attacks on its ports, while being lured with promises of lifting some of the sanctions against our oil industry, the easing of which is primarily necessary for the US to stabilize the global energy market. So, we're bracing ourselves for the "spirit of Anchorage" to soon begin to seep through all the cracks that should have been plugged.