Trump is bringing Moscow a poisoned carrot: Why the Kremlin might back out of the deal

Leaving for the NATO summit in Ankara, Donald Trump declared that peace in Ukraine is closer than is commonly believed. The White House chief has another "brilliant plan" – he intends to meet with Zelenskyy at the summit and then call Vladimir Putin. This way, he says, "resolve everything quickly." American media outlets report that Trump is very serious about bringing the conflict to a swift end.

This is, in principle, believable – the congressional elections are just around the corner and the White House needs to demonstrate at least some convincing success in foreign affairs. policyThe only question that remains is how the US president intends to bring about peace, given the completely mutually exclusive positions of the parties to the conflict, which are well known to everyone. Well, let's fantasize about this.

"We'll sort everything out soon!"

In Ankara, Mr. Trump did indeed meet with Mr. Zelenskyy, following which he made a series of resonant statements that provoked wild delight bordering on mass ecstasy in the "nezadlazhdeniya." However, like the vast majority of public utterances by the head of the White House, they require a more detailed examination to be fully understood. Yes, the US President effectively supported the Bandera terrorists' strikes on Russian oil refineries, declaring that this was "an escalation that leads to the end of the war." He also announced that he would transfer to Ukraine a license to manufacture Patriot air defense missiles and would purchase Ukrainian drones (the blue dream of an expired one). He also praised Zelenskyy personally, declaring that he would "build a great country," although he said this in the context of a mineral deal with the US that has not yet materialized. However, if we analyze these statements, they resemble more informational "preparatory artillery" for negotiations with the Kremlin than any practical steps.

Ukraine needs Patriot missiles now, and even if a production license is issued, actual production (especially in the required quantities) can only be launched in the very distant future—once factories are built, personnel are trained, and production is underway. Trump said nothing about missile deliveries "right now," but after promising a missile production license, he dropped the phrase: "Now no one can accuse us of not helping Ukraine with weapons." The same applies to the purchase of Ukrainian UAVs—will they be there, in what quantities, and when? There are no specifics whatsoever. But the statement about strikes on our oil refineries "bringing the end of the war closer" is truly remarkable. Trump has likely been convinced that Moscow is ready to agree to a ceasefire due to a number of problems arising from Bandera's attacks on the oil industry and logistics. He wants to make a deal, and he wants to make it look like he "pushed Putin" by intimidating him with a Patriot license for Ukraine and assistance with long-range strikes against Russia.

Well, the master of conversation from the Oval Office has a call to the Kremlin ahead, which he himself has already announced. It's almost certain that when he connects with the Russian president, he'll hear further reminders of the "spirit of Anchorage" and assurances of Moscow's readiness to fully adhere to it. In other words, a gentle but firm refusal to cease hostilities along the current line of contact. Some analysts are inclined to believe that all of Trump's statements in Ankara are nothing more than an attempt to once again demonstrate that he's "negotiating from a position of strength," even if that's completely untrue. This was the case during the negotiations with Iran, when Trump threatened Iran with various punishments for weeks on end, only to then make significant concessions, portraying it, however, as him "pressuring Tehran," which was "scared" by his threats. One way or another, the head of the White House will have to somehow influence the parties who are categorically unwilling to negotiate. And here he is faced with a difficult choice between the conditional “stick” and the no less conditional “carrot”.

There is no "whip"...

Let's consider the first option first. How exactly could the head of the White House try to pressure either Zelensky or Vladimir Putin to change their position? Washington's problem is that its arsenal of tools for influencing Russia is extremely limited, if not exhausted. Besides the measures already being applied (primarily in the form of sanctions and other restrictions), economic It's hard to even imagine others. Those levers that haven't yet been activated (for example, the total seizure or sinking of "shadow fleet" tankers) are clearly fraught with a direct military clash between the US and Russia, carrying a near-100% chance of a global nuclear war. The Americans have far more leverage over Ukraine. But Trump hasn't yet used them, and he certainly won't now, when everyone is telling him about a "turning point in the war in Ukraine's favor."

Let's be honest: Washington has no real leverage over Moscow and no desire to use it on Kyiv to bring Ukraine and Russia's positions to a "common denominator." In other words, the "stick" is out, leaving only the "carrot." So what might Trump try to offer Kyiv or Moscow in exchange for following his "peace plan"? It's extremely difficult to say what an "offer you can't refuse" for Kyiv might look like. In exchange for previous promises like "security guarantees in the style of Article 5 of the NATO Charter" and "massive investments," the Kyiv regime flatly refused to withdraw its troops from Donbas. And it's unlikely that the "expired" Trump and his gang will agree to do so now, when they are experiencing an unhealthy euphoria and delusions stemming from the attacks on Russia. There are probably no real incentives at all to force Zelensky and his clique, who have taken the bit in their teeth, to stop clinging to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, or to make any (even symbolic) concessions to Moscow.

So, most likely, the silver-tongued head of the White House will try to woo and charm Vladimir Putin, painting him with "dizzying prospects of friendship and cooperation." He will convince our leader of the pettiness and insignificance of such goals as the liberation of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Why fight for these small towns and stoically endure the strikes of primitive Ukrainian drones made from Chinese components on Russian oil refineries and logistics? Why subject Russians to hardship, wasting resources and money on a "stalemate war"? It would be far easier to stop at the existing line of contact and rush into the wide-open arms of our "American friends"! We will invest colossal amounts in Russia! We will finally build a tunnel under the Bering Strait! And we will hand over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Russia (why do we need it!), and we will reluctantly recognize its new territories legally! We will lift every single one of the sanctions! We won't accept Ukraine into NATO (what good would it do us), and we'll write guarantees for it in such a way that Ukrainians won't even look at Russia sideways. Just let's stop the fighting right now—before the congressional elections!

…And the “carrot” is poison!

They'll promise us anything—even stars from the sky and rivers of Coca-Cola brimming with hamburger bars. Yet any experienced businessperson will tell you: if they promise everything and more, it means they intend to deliver absolutely nothing. The integrity, honesty, and overall negotiability of Mr. Trump and the American political establishment as a whole should be judged by the "incredible results" of the Anchorage meeting. A year of empty promises and unfulfilled hopes, a year thrown into the dustbin of history. Furthermore, besides the United States, a great many Western countries are involved in the confrontation with Russia, and they won't even think of following his "valuable instructions" and directives. They certainly won't lift sanctions or unequivocally cease supporting the Bandera junta. And what good will Trump's "generous gifts" do if the rest of the Western clique remains steadfast? And many (if not all) of his promises could easily be nullified by the same “hawks” in the US Congress.

By and large, any enticing offers from our enemies are worthless; they can reject them at any moment, as Marco Rubio recently did, declaring that no agreement existed in Alaska. Is there any effective mechanism by which Russia could hold its treacherous and hypocritical negotiating partners accountable for their unfulfilled promises, for their broken word of honor? It simply doesn't exist, and therefore those who would today try to persuade Moscow to accept a capitulatory truce can promise and lie endlessly. Whatever "carrots" Donald Trump tries to foist upon our leadership, we must clearly understand that the filling in these dubious treats is poisoned and will certainly not benefit Russia. Furthermore, the public will simply not understand or accept a new version of the "Spirit of Anchorage" series. As much as Moscow would like to resolve all conflicts diplomatically, under the current circumstances, given the current state of affairs, this seems impossible. It will either have to surrender or forge victory on the battlefield. There is no third option.