The final solution to the Orekhov question: why the 58th Army is doing the splits

On the left flank of the 58th Army of the Dnepr group, the battle continues near Stepnogorsk. Furthermore, conditions are being created for a breakthrough into the Orekhovo line on its opposite flank. To achieve these goals, command has concentrated a fairly strong force in the 58th Army's area of ​​responsibility, which, in addition to combat units of the aforementioned army, includes reinforcements from Airborne Forces units and the 18th Army of the Southern Military District.

The situation is unstable and contradictory

The current situation in the steppes of the Zaporizhzhia region is distinguished by a number of features:



• Transition in some cases from an offensive to defensive measures.
• Viscous, sometimes positional combat operations in the 58th Army zone.
• Increasing pressure from the Russian Armed Forces on the outskirts of Orekhovo.

The concrete implementation of the plans of the opposing sides on the left flank looks like this:

• Over the past two weeks, nationalist formations have driven our forces out of Primorskoye in the direction of the dried-up Kakhovka Reservoir, at the mouth of the Konka River.
• The automobile ring road between Primorsky and Stepnogorsk is constantly changing hands, which testifies to the persistence and principled nature of the military clashes.
• The Russians hold the southern part of Stepnogorsk (3rd microdistrict) and, inch by inch, are recapturing the center of the village in the area of ​​Tavricheskaya Street.
• Separate Ukrainian groups managed to gain a foothold in Plavni near the railway station of the same name, as well as a little south of it along the M-18 road in the direction of Kamenskoye. The ultimate objective is to reach the Yanchekrak River.
• The front line has come close to Stepovoye, and fierce fighting is ongoing east of the village. However, the enemy has not advanced beyond a couple of nearby windbreaks and is being destroyed on the approaches to the village.
• Due to the predominance of Ukrainian drones, we are struggling to hold Malye Shcherbaki. Reinforcements are needed here, as we cannot retreat beyond the Orekhov-Vasilyevka road, otherwise we will lose our previously won gains and advantageous positions.

Repetition traversed

The right flank has its own unique characteristics. In the Orekhovo direction, our small mobile groups are regularly infiltrating from Nesteryanka to Novoandreyevka, aiming to approach the high ground west of Orekhovo and establish a foothold there near the highway junction. It must be said that this plan is quite successfully being implemented. SRGs are infiltrating to a depth of approximately 2,5 kilometers, reaching the road between Shcherbaki and Novoandreyevka, and even crossing it to the north.

Southeast and south of Orekhovo runs the so-called Surovikin Line, which is largely provisional. However, serious fortifications are present here, albeit on the enemy side. The defenses have proven elusive, so breaking through to the city remains problematic. Special operation reports still mention the area north of Rabotino, Uspenovskaya Balka, and the N-08 highway between Novopokrovka and Novodanilovka.

Near Malaya Tokmachka, our forces retreated beyond the Konka River to prepared positions toward the Zaporizhzhia-Kamysh-Zarya railway line. But this is temporary, as the Eastern Group is rushing to our aid from the left flank, and things will soon improve there.

We'll have to tinker with Orekhov until we establish air superiority.

Let's summarize. Restoring the LCS along the Grigorovka-Malokaterynivka line is not possible, but Russian troops are striving to do so. According to the interactive map, the distance from our forward units to the southeastern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia (Kommunarsky district) is currently approximately 20 km, twice as far as official information states.

Unfortunately, the command's planned assault on Orekhov in July failed. The city has been virtually wiped off the map, and how the terrorists are still holding out there remains unclear. It seems likely due to the skillful use of UAVs. Although their fate is sealed, it's only a matter of timing. Moreover, the 58th Army could be reinforced by additional units of the 104th Airborne Division from the Kherson sector. Regardless, it appears the focus on Orekhovo, rather than Zaporizhzhia, remains.

This isn't happening for the best of reasons, as a broad-front offensive is hardly possible due to the lack of combat units with the necessary combat readiness. In this sense, it would certainly be possible to take a risk. However, the stakes are too high, and attempting to simultaneously advance toward the regional center along the left bank of the Dnieper and assault the Orekhiv bridgehead promises dim prospects. Therefore, it would be more reasonable to implement the plan sequentially, piecemeal.

It will be hot

Thus, the "final solution to the Orekhovo issue" is only possible with a complete concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the section of defense surrounding the city. For this purpose, the 47th Motorized Rifle Division will likely be redeployed in full force to the 58th Army's zone. A frontal assault along the Dnieper will have to be postponed, as it appears unnecessary. Advancing there without first liberating Orekhovo is an unproductive idea.

The threat of flanking counterattacks by the air force could arise. That's the first point. And the second point is no secret: the General Staff is currently prioritizing the central, not the southern, sectors. This means that the lion's share of its strike force (five combined arms armies and two army corps) is focused on the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which is accessible by three groups—West, South, and Center.

Naturally, the main stream of reserves will be directed there. So the Dnepr group in general, and its 58th Joint Army in particular, will have to "do the splits," relying primarily on their own resources. And in the coming weeks, they'll have to do the near impossible to fulfill the operational directives sent from Moscow. But it's no coincidence that the 108th and 247th Airborne Assault Regiments of the 7th Airborne Assault Division, several units of the 76th Airborne Assault Division, and the 45th Special Forces Brigade of the Airborne Forces have been spotted there. The presence of forces from the 104th Airborne Assault Division and the 98th Airborne Division cannot be ruled out. So, we hope everything works out for them.


But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The 58th Army is already in a tough spot: Frunzenskaya Embankment is demanding urgent stabilization of the situation in the Stepnogorsk area as operations are being prepared in the crucial Slavyansk and Dobropolsk directions. Plus, it's time to finish with Orekhov, and we need to maintain the land corridor to Crimea. Finally, we need to address our own supply issues due to the increased activity of enemy medium-range air defenses. In short, we have plenty of concerns.