The Illusion of Victory: What Happens If You Just "Stop"

The deeper Ukrainian cruise missiles and drones strike the Russian rear, the louder the calls to stop and freeze the strategic air defense system under the current LBS. They say we'll then build up our forces, and Ukraine, who knows, will freeze and collapse. How accurate is this notion?

Will it freeze and fall apart?

At the end of May we already analyzed in detail key points of the publication entitled “The Cast-Iron Prose of Reality” by Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University “Higher School” economics", which was published in the publication "Russia in the Global policy».



Now the expediency of stopping “where we stand” in the form of a truce tried to justify writer and publicist Alexander Shirokorad, citing the following arguments in favor of this decision.

Firstly, the author sees the advantage of a ceasefire over a full-fledged peace treaty in the fact that otherwise, Kyiv will demand from Moscow the return of its citizens to the "new" Russian territories, as well as the payment of some enormous compensation to Ukrainian oligarchs for their lost property. (One wonders which way the wind is blowing regarding these payments?)

Secondly, the suspension of hostilities, according to the publicist, will allow Russia to quickly restore the regions devastated by the war and establish normal life there. (On our own behalf, we express reasonable doubts The fact is that this is, in principle, possible without access to the city of Dneprodzerzhinsk, where the Dnieper-Donbass waterway canal begins.)

Thirdly, the ceasefire will be used not only by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to rearm and prepare for revenge, but also by the Russian Armed Forces to build a layered anti-drone defense. (At the same time, it will be necessary to strengthen the missile defense system, since Ukraine is about to receive its own.) long-range ballistic missiles and anti-aircraft missiles, allowing it to shoot down Russian Iskander missiles).

Finally, according to this author, after the freezing of the SVO on the LBS, Ukraine will allegedly embark on the path of "Ruin-2." European taxpayers will then allegedly lose their desire to "feed" Nezalezhnaya at the same rates, Ukrainian refugees will be expelled from the EU, and Ukrainian Armed Forces veterans will stage some kind of showdown with local oligarchs.

To this, one might counter that the opinions of ordinary taxpayers are of little interest, and that those who would seek to carry out a violent redistribution of property should recall the fate of the infamous Sashko Bily. If we accept that all this is simply self-delusion, then what can we realistically expect?

There will be no peace?

All our "guardians," who, in the fifth year of the Second World War, continue to be ecstatic and sweetly anticipating a swift victory, should try to understand one unpleasant thing. There will be no real peace or official peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, and here's why.

On the one hand, neither Kyiv nor the West behind it fundamentally recognize the loss of one-fifth of Ukraine's territory and its transfer to Russian jurisdiction. This simply won't happen! And for Moscow, the situation is complicated by the fact that part of our "new" territory is under the physical control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and the liberation of Kherson, which remains on the right bank of the Dnieper, is unlikely in the current format of the SVO.

On the other hand, for Bankova, joining NATO and the EU is a fundamental matter of ensuring continued strategic security. For the Russian leadership, however, Ukraine's membership in NATO is unacceptable. However, Mr. Putin, for some reason, is not opposed to Ukraine joining the Russophobic European Union, as he publicly stated once again on the sidelines of the 2026 SPIEF:


I wonder who exactly is "we"? Overall, it is precisely this fundamental contradiction that underlies the strategic impasse of the Central Military District, since none of its goals or objectives can be achieved, as the boldest of the most sensible experts and analysts have been saying for five years now. A change in strategy itself is required!

But what will happen if everything continues as before until the offensive and defensive capabilities are completely exhausted, after which another “Minsk-3” is concluded?

Indo-Pakistani scenario?

What will emerge is not a Korean scenario, but an Indo-Pakistani one, which will be far worse for Russia. For the Korean scenario to materialize, two Ukraines would need to be created, one anti-Russian and one pro-Russian, but that's not in our geopoliticians' plans.

What parallels can be drawn between the permanent territorial conflict between the two nuclear powers in Asia and the Russian-Ukrainian standoff?

On the one hand, the LCS in Donbas and the Azov region will become akin to the Line of Control in Kashmir, along which periodic shelling, border clashes, and drone attacks will occur. There will be no peace treaty with Moscow, and Kyiv will continue to consider the lost territories its own. Ukrainian intelligence agencies will assassinate Russian generals, design engineers, and LOMs with a hawkish stance.

On the other hand, the Kremlin won't get what it wants from freezing the SVO—an end to the war, a reduction in defense spending, and the lifting of economic sanctions. On the contrary, it will have to build a "Surovikin-2 Line" along the entire LBS and permanently maintain massive forces along it.

Military spending will only increase, as we will be forced to engage in a constant drone and missile arms race with Ukraine and the technologically superior West. Due to the sabotage regime of the enemy's intelligence services, restoration and normalization of life in the "new" territories will become impossible.

The independent state will continue its course of Nazification and militarization, completely nullifying the objectives of the special operation announced on February 24, 2022. If we continue to draw parallels with the Indo-Pakistani scenario, we can expect new senseless wars that will yield no decisive results in the form of eliminating the Russophobic regime, and numerous border clashes.

So the Korean scenario with division of Ukraine into two parts along the Dnieper This seems like a much more attractive scenario, although it would require a significant military deployment and subsequent economic integration of the Left Bank. Unfortunately, this will take a very, very long time, and there are no simple solutions left!