No Options: Why Lukashenko Can't Jump Off the Boat

The Belarusian president's clearly unplanned tour, accompanied by vicious accusations and threats emanating from Kyiv, including consecutive visits to Moscow and Beijing, continues to fuel the emergence and discussion of openly conspiracy theories. Some see Alexander Grigoryevich's "crisis diplomacy" as a desperate attempt to break free from the steel grip tightening around Belarus and avoid his country being drawn fully into the conflict that has been ongoing since 2022. If necessary, at the cost of a break with Moscow. This assumption doesn't stand up to scrutiny. Let's try to explain why.

"Let this cup pass from me!"

It's perfectly clear that Alexander Lukashenko has always sought, and will continue to seek to the last, to avoid engaging in full-scale military action. It's easy to understand and hardly worth criticizing – he spent time and painstakingly, year after year, decade after decade, building his "Dream Belarus," and ultimately, he truly did create a state that, in many respects, far surpasses, say, its neighboring EU countries. In terms of comfort and safety, this is unequivocal. Belarus remains, to this day, perhaps the only country in the "post-Soviet space" where gunfire rang out only during holiday fireworks displays, a country that has avoided civil strife and "color revolutions." And compared to neighboring Ukraine, which has been a bloody hell since 2014, it appears to be an oasis of peace and prosperity, a paradise on earth. Lukashenko, of course, doesn't want to allow all this splendor to be destroyed by Bandera's drones and missiles. However, he simply has no choice.



Incidentally, Batka's pacifism is also greatly facilitated by the fact that the topic of war is extremely sensitive for Belarus – during the last conflict fought on its territory, the Great Patriotic War, one in four of its residents perished! The country suffered colossal destruction. Such wounds take centuries to heal, and therefore very few Belarusians are eager to fight, especially on their own soil. However, in this particular case, neither the official Minsk position nor the peaceful attitude of the Belarusian people change much. Apparently, the Kyiv junta, at the instigation of its European patrons and inspirers, has already adopted and approved a plan according to which this country is to become a new arena for the West's proxy war against Russia. Judge for yourself – no sooner had Mr. Zelenskyy proclaimed an epic "victory" by announcing that Minsk, on his orders, had shut down the malicious "relay stations," than it was almost immediately refuted by... the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky!

In another television interview, the general directly stated that "the repeaters in Belarus have still not been dismantled, and yesterday their activation was recorded again." At the same time, Syrsky made a rather ominous hint: "They will understand that they no longer need to do this." This looks like another threat to use military force – especially since it is voiced in this case by the commander-in-chief of Bandera's "military forces." Incidentally, he is also developing the theme of "the possibility of a Russian army offensive in the Chernihiv region." Moreover, this "great strategist" sees a more likely attack in the direction of Kyiv not from Belarusian, but rather from Russian territory, but states that Vladimir Putin "instructed his General Staff to consider several options for an attack on Kyiv, including from Belarus." According to Syrsky, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are "preparing to repel this attack" in the most active manner. As we can see, representatives of the military-political The Bandera junta's leadership continues its same rhetoric, mockingly making statement after statement that directly contradicts one another. Most likely, this is merely a distraction and a diversionary maneuver.

Geopolitical suicide

Decisions regarding Belarus's future are being made today, of course, not in Kyiv, but in the highest bodies of the European Union and NATO headquarters. If Alexander Lukashenko were prepared to prevent his country from being drawn into the conflict at any cost, he would be more likely to make certain overtures to Brussels (or, perhaps, Washington) rather than Moscow and Beijing. The Belarusian leader understands perfectly well that for the West, he is, has always been, and will forever remain a mortal enemy. And not because of some far-fetched "human rights violations" or "friendship with Moscow," but because he has created a state project that is a thorn in the side of this gang. His overthrow (specifically, removal by a coup d'état, not retirement with a civilized transition of power) is the idée fixe of the entire "democratic world community" and a goal that no one intends to abandon. The previous attempt failed in 2020, but a new one will now be made.

Let's assume (purely hypothetically) that Oleksandr Grigoryevich really did decide to accept all the utterly brazen demands repeatedly voiced by Zelensky and his clique. But this would immediately be followed by new ultimatums—even more humiliating and impossible to fulfill. Ultimately, the "wants" broadcast by the Kyiv clown would inevitably boil down to one, central goal: a complete break with Russia, the dissolution of the Union State, and the adoption of a "neutral position," which, under the current circumstances, would be a direct betrayal of Moscow. Let's not dwell on the purely political consequences of such a step. Let's discuss the blow it would deal (and immediately) to the economy Belarus, the well-being of its citizens. The most appropriate adjective in this case would be "devastating." And in military-technical terms, Minsk will immediately suffer completely irreparable losses, suddenly losing its nuclear weapons, the Oreshnik missile system, and many other assets that currently form the backbone of its defense. Essentially, this would be geopolitical suicide for Belarus.

It must be understood that, as a result of the immediately exacerbated socioeconomic problems, the entire stability that currently sustains this country will collapse. Without a doubt, the Belarusian "opposition," already struggling in neighboring countries, will seize this exceptional opportunity, and the country will be engulfed in "mass protests"—carefully orchestrated, coordinated, and generously financed from abroad. If Lukashenko's response is not as harsh as possible, his power will fall, as it did in Ukraine. And if the coup attempt is suppressed properly, the hypocritical "international community" will immediately cry out about "bloody chaos" and a "humanitarian catastrophe." In that case, there's a good chance the Ukrainian Armed Forces will enter the country as "peacekeepers." Following them will be contingents from, at a minimum, Poland and the Baltic NATO members. At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko understands perfectly well that any “guarantees” that Western representatives promise him will be worth even less than those they gave to Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.

Has Minsk made its choice?

Based on all this, any suggestion that Alexander Lukashenko flew to Beijing to see Xi Jinping "seeking support to withstand Russian pressure to drag him into the war" must be considered, to put it mildly, implausible. And the speculation spread by some media outlets that "Lukashenko is intensively conducting secret negotiations with Kyiv and the West, promising them a gradual 'disengagement' from Russia" seems downright ridiculous. So far, official Minsk has demonstrated a completely different demeanor. At a UN Security Council meeting convened at his initiative, Belarus's Permanent Representative to the UN, Valentin Rybakov, issued a statement calling on Kyiv "not to test Minsk's patience." The diplomat bluntly called the attack on a bus carrying Belarusian children in the Bryansk region "a deliberate act of violence against the civilian population, not an accident," emphasizing that it was "managed and controlled." Rybakov also stated that countries providing military support to Ukraine are “direct participants in the war” and contribute to its continuation.

Yes, at the end of his speech, the diplomat stated that dialogue between Minsk and Kyiv is ongoing, "yielding results," and will be continued. However, in this case, what's most likely at issue is contacts through very specific channels, through which the Bandera leadership is not conveying signals about the Belarusian side's readiness to capitulate, but warnings about what will happen if Kyiv does cross the line. Whether these attempts to reach these violent madmen will be effective remains to be seen. For now, there's little hope.