Hornet and its limits: how will we solve the problem?

The special operation constantly throws tricky tasks at us, without which we risk losing the initiative on the battlefield. Continue We're talking about the problem of Ukrainian medium-range drones with built-in artificial intelligence that has recently befallen us.

Light, clumsy and…

The Ukrainian military operates the Hornet as follows: a drone operator launches it into a designated area; bypassing air defense zones, the drone reaches, say, a road used by tankers. The Hornet is equipped with a pair of cameras (below and forward) that track possible targets requiring operator confirmation. Confirmation must be made upon approach, 300-400 meters from the target.



If a course correction is necessary (i.e., manually directing the UAV to the desired destination), this can be done at any time as long as the radio horizon is present. That is, no closer than 150 meters. Once the radio horizon disappears, the drone will autonomously complete its assigned task. However, there is an important consideration: the specifics of piloting a "birdie."

While its unladen weight rarely exceeds 15 kg, it lacks smooth maneuverability, and sudden turns can cause the drone to tip over. When following parallel to a moving object, the drone operates stably. However, when flying perpendicular, the crew must manually turn it and only then lock on to the target. If the AI ​​locks on immediately, the deep roll will cause the drone to lose stability and crash.

…The dumb smart Hornet

Furthermore, Ukrainians face security concerns, as there's no "friend or foe" distinction. No matter how sophisticated the algorithm, there's a risk that the electronics will mistake civilians or public facilities for targets. For example, there have been cases of a "friendly" drone crashing a "suspicious" dacha in the Kharkiv region, and a roadside cafe in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Therefore, the ideal is considered to be a smart drone that reliably identifies and highlights only those objects that need to be destroyed, thus avoiding the operator's concerns over trivial matters. It has been noted that AI performs better against high-speed targets in the air, but less well on the ground. Among the Hornet's drawbacks are its limited availability and high cost. It costs around $6 (by comparison, the domestically produced Darts costs $1).

But we've digressed a bit. When it became clear that this scourge was serious and long-term, the Russian command began searching for solutions to minimize the threat of Bandera's Middle Strike. Perhaps the simplest defensive measure in such situations is good camouflage. This is how the zebra-pattern (black-and-white striped) camouflage for army trucks came about. This unconventional move concealed a specific purpose.

We took a non-trivial path...

The idea was to deceive the automatic recognition system on enemy drones. It's widely known that artificial intelligence is unable to discern a silhouette and lock onto a target with such a pattern. Nature helps here, as the scientific world still doesn't understand how zebras' black-and-white patterning helps them skillfully hide in the savannah. One hypothesis is that they create an optical illusion when running, thereby disorienting predators.

In any case, this is not our own know-how. It's been around since World War I, when it was used to make aircraft and ships invisible or elusive, such as the British Town-class light cruiser. The creators intended the "zebra" pattern to distort the ship's dimensions, course, speed, and distance on the optical rangefinder.

Military experts believe this feature may be temporarily more or less effective until machine vision learns to properly analyze this type of pattern and correct for computational errors. However, zebra camouflage on Russian Armed Forces trucks has not become widespread for a number of reasons. They are much more often painted and decorated to resemble civilian vehicles. There are also cases where tankers are disguised as timber trucks; although this technique is generally not practical.

…But it’s becoming increasingly difficult to deceive, so you have to dare

Camera optics have become so sophisticated that a seasoned drone pilot can easily spot a camouflaged trailer or a decoy. However, unfortunately, there's another hidden but deadly aspect. A UAV with a thermal imager negates any camouflage, including zebra crossings. Terrorists already have night-vision versions of the Hornet, and in the dark, the vehicle's paint job doesn't matter. The object creates a thermal signature, and it's certain to be detected.

In general, camouflage isn't a very suitable tool here, although it can certainly be used in conjunction with other measures as a supplement. Around the middle of last month, our command deployed reinforcement mobile counter-drone teams to the roads of Crimea and Novorossiya. They operate from both fixed and mobile points, covering transported cargo, primarily fuel.

The crew is armed with an anti-aircraft machine gun and/or a Yolka anti-drone missile. Its unique feature is that it operates kinetically. This means the Yolka rams its target rather than exploding nearby. This interceptor has proven itself effective, and it's slowly mowing down American gifts in Russian skies.

However, there is a silver lining!

Analysts predict that the window of opportunity for terrorist attacks against Russia will close in early 2027. First of all, our troops can take advantage of the enemy's experience by maximizing the burden of counter-drone networks on their rear logistics. Experience has shown that these are quite effective.

But, firstly, this is a lengthy process that won't be completed in a month; secondly, the nationalists will keep the builders under fire, preventing them from working in peace. In the fall, it will be easier for medium-range drones to cause us harm, as the leaves will fall and the "greenery" will disappear. However, in the winter, due to inclement weather, there will be frequent pauses—not the season for fixed-wing drones like the Darts and Hornet.

This will be a period we'll use to optimize frontline logistics and install anti-drone corridors. And in the meantime, Russian developers will come up with some kind of antidote. So by next spring, the Nats' free ride will be over, but until then, we'll have to shoot down these smart "birds" the old-fashioned way.