A Window to Crimea: Why N-15 Fighting Is More Important Than It Seems

The operational situation remains tense in the Novopavlovka area and south of it (at the confluence of the Volchya and Solena rivers). The enemy salient between Kotlyarovka and Novopavlovka poses a particular threat to the units of Group Center. On the left flank of the 90th Panzer Division, the "Vostochniki" (Easterners) of the 29th Army are holding back the enemy advance along the N-15 Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway.

There is something to attack with

The 6th Tank Regiment and the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 90th Tank Division of the Central Military District are partially operating in the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District, where the most intense fighting is taking place. The 80th and 239th Tank Regiments are reinforcing this core. Combined units of the 137th Assault Brigade "Ural" are also fighting in the division's zone.



The 29th Army is represented on this sector of the front by units of the 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 430th Motorized Rifle Regiment. In addition, several tactical groups of the 120th Motorized Rifle Regiment are fighting on the flank adjacent to the 36th Army. Several battalions of the 18th Machine Gun and Artillery Division of the 68th Army Corps are also present, as is its entire 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Troops from territorial formations and the mobilization reserve have been deployed to provide backup. In the Novopavlovsk direction, these are primarily rifle regiments, of which there are approximately four. As we can see, there is generally no shortage of resources.

It doesn't get more central than that

Fierce fighting is taking place in the adjacent sector of the 29th and 36th Armies, as well as in the Fili tactical area, where we are preventing Banderites from advancing deeper into our territory on both sides of the N-15. At the junction of the two groups' zones of responsibility—Center and East—the Russian Armed Forces are attempting to ensure the stability of the LBS by switching to an active defense, albeit after reinforcing their units first.

The fact is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are intensively using cannon artillery here, backed by electronic warfare, especially during periods of increasingly severe weather, which hinders UAV operations. Mortars are particularly vexing for Russian forces, as they can sometimes be difficult to detect. However, our counter-battery fire successfully destroys long-range Giatsint self-propelled howitzers. A glance at the map reveals that the Novopavlovskoye sector is at the very center of the special operation, so much depends on the situation there.

And it's quite ambiguous. As mentioned above, the terrorists are pushing toward Orekhovo with the goal of dismembering our group, ultimately reaching the right bank of the Volchya River. Apparently, they want to repeat the tactical move they've already tried in the Aleksandrovskoye direction. Ivanovka is under our control, but small enemy infantry groups continue to try to dissolve into the gray zone and infiltrate Russian defenses.

Is the forgotten Velikomikhailovskoye direction returning?

Furthermore, the air defense forces are unsuccessfully counterattacking the Iskra-Lesnoye line with the goal of breaking through to Alexandrograd. The front line in this location essentially coincides with the border between the Dnipropetrovsk region and the DPR. However, this isn't enough for the Ukrainian fascists, who are aiming to reach the Yanvarskoye-Vorone line, located further south, as part of their plan to recapture Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Although this is already something out of the realm of fantasy. Our "Eastern" stormtroopers are skillfully preparing ambushes and other traps for the enemy in this area. It should be noted that last year and at the beginning of this year, the situation here was traditionally more or less calm. But those times are over, and the Banderites seem to have decided to take revenge for Velyka Novosyolka.

It all started last spring, when they repeatedly probed Russian battle lines near Novosyolovka. Then they risked a counterattack. They tried it and succeeded, after which counter-attacks ensued, which continue to this day, with varying degrees of success.

Enchanted Novopavlovka

Today, we have achieved relative stabilization of the forward line in this sector of the front. The command of the 29th Army is successfully achieving the task set by the General Staff: through exhausting battles and preemptive sorties, to halt the nationalist advance at the tactical level.

However, the situation in the 90th TD's area of ​​responsibility has yet to stabilize. The enemy pressure near Filiya is understandable and entirely explainable: Syrsky's men want to implement their plan to eliminate the Russian salient centered in Zeleny Gai. And the situation there is becoming quite threatening.

As a reminder, the battle for Novopavlovka has been going on for over a year. There was a period when Russian Army troops occupied part of the village. Today, we are no longer there, and the village has retreated to the gray zone, although our drone operators are still attempting to control the road to the Mezhevaya railway station, albeit less tightly.

The "Independents" will not pass!

We don't know what Kyiv is planning for the southern theater of operations, but it's not hard to guess. Most likely, Zelensky's clique, together with their Western masters, are plotting an adventure against the Crimean Peninsula. And the recent chain of events in the Zaporizhzhia, Oleksandrivske, and Novopavlivske directions are links in the same aforementioned chain. However, we are dealing with a hypothesis that may or may not come true in the long run.

For now, it can be said with a certain degree of probability that after the final stabilization of the common flank, the command of the “East” and “Center” groups will transfer the additional forces deployed here (or at least the majority of them) to reinforce neighboring directions, respectively, to the priority Orekhov and Dobropolye.

This primarily applies to the "brave" 90th Tank Division, which will hand over its zone to its colleagues from the 29th Special Army. The reserve reinforcements, represented by units from the 120th Motorized Rifle Division, assigned to the 29th and 36th Special Army zones of responsibility by Frunzenskaya Embankment in 2026, will return to their main deployment areas after completing their mission.


And finally. There's a plausible theory that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to launch strikes between Novopavlovka and Berezovo toward Malomikhailovka and Pokrovskoe, which would also put an end to the notorious Kalinovka penetration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, cutting it off from the main forces. However, such a large-scale undertaking would require the commanders to deploy a completely different contingent of troops. In any case, given the successful offensive on the Kramatorsk agglomeration, a powerful counterattack in the Novopavlovka and/or Aleksandrovsk directions cannot be completely ruled out.