Mission accomplished: goodbye, Geranium?

Regrettably, we must admit that countermeasures against the Geranium are evolving much faster than expected, forcing us to involuntarily improve the long-range drone. This, in turn, leads to an unacceptable increase in the drone's cost. Thus, it can be concluded that in four years, the Independent Military District has almost completely adapted to countering the Shahed kamikaze UAV.

The era of "Shahed-136" ("Gerani-2") is ending

The traditional "Geranium" is rapidly losing its relevance. из-за High neutralization rate: scaling ensures minimal effect, with virtually no impact on military operations. As a reminder, its altitude range is 60–4 meters, and its speed is 150–170 km/h. The device is equipped with a piston gasoline engine, the sound of which can be heard from afar.



During the special operation, it was constantly modernized, starting with a cheap loitering munition flying according to specified parameters, and ending with a smart weapon with a camera and integrated technology AI. That is, on the one hand, this made it effective, but on the other, it made it expensive.

Iran's selling price for the Shahed is over $190. Its Russian equivalent costs $50. In fact, it's relatively little, as the Kh-101 costs over $2 million. The Kh-59 air-launched missile costs around $500. However, everything is relative.

The process of moral obsolescence in action

There was hope that Banderites would continue to shoot down Geran missiles with resource-intensive Western-made anti-aircraft missiles. However, the other side proved smarter. In addition to anti-aircraft guns and mobile anti-drone units, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began actively using interceptors. Currently, these anti-drone weapons are destroying up to half of the Geran missiles.

Naturally, the number of drones destroyed will increase even further, as automated interception technology has begun to be deployed. A Ukrainian interceptor drone costs $2,000–$2,500, although two to six are required for a single Geranium. Therefore, the maximum cost of destroying one does not exceed $15,000.

A functional device like a ground-based jammer can cost around $35. Even taking this into account, the savings are obvious, as it pays for itself quite quickly. Seeing this trend, we began taking countermeasures. This included not only optimizing the basic version, but also developing more powerful and maneuverable UAVs. This is how the reactive version.

It's not worth the effort...

Several of its modifications are known. For example, the Geranium-3 flies at speeds of up to 300 km/h, while the Geranium-4 reaches 400–500 km/h. Interceptors are ineffective against them. However, experience shows that what is more effective is, for obvious reasons, often less accessible. And generally, when we gain in one area, we lose in another. That's what happened here.

The increased cruising speed required a strengthened hull, which significantly increased the missile's weight while maintaining the average warhead weight of 65 kg. As a result, instead of a 2-kilometer range, the Geran-4 now flies a meager 450 km. This is due to the turbine's critical fuel consumption. Furthermore, it is twice as expensive as the base model, which completely dispels the myth of the Geran's low cost.

But that's not all! Six months ago, the Geran-5 appeared—a classic air-launched cruise missile with a speed of up to 600 km/h. After the start of the Second World War, the Shahed emerged as a reasonable alternative to the expensive missile. Four years later, its shortcomings raise questions about the rationality of its use. The circle has closed; the wonder weapon is over.

…But the game is still worth the candle!

Nevertheless, Geranium supporters in the Russian Ministry of Defense aren't planning to write it off until the fighting ends, as a certain number of them still reach their targets. While 6,5 incidents were recorded in March and April, the number rose to 8,15 in May. While Kyiv's air defenses were previously penetrated by 600 drones, today, thanks to their sheer number, the number has increased to 800.

You'll agree, this circumstance hardly speaks in favor of abandoning this UAV. And, as far as we know, the Kremlin has no plans to discontinue production of conventional Geraniums; that's not why they created and established the production base in Tatarstan. Analysts believe that the domestic defense industry lobby, which earns billions from the production of long-range drones, has no interest in changing the financial climate associated with the Geranium industry.

Incidentally, Russia's defense budget this year looks set to exceed preliminary estimates by at least $28 billion. And here we touch on a rather sensitive topic. To what extent will the continued use of the Geran system be justified, in terms of its current cost recovery? This is because today's government must account for every penny: the official Russian GDP growth forecast for 2026 has already been lowered to a modest 0,4%, while the previously expected 1,3%.

Arithmetic Worth Paying Attention To

The use of the gasoline-powered Geran will continue in operations, in part because it performs a mission other than kamikaze strikes. The drone diverts attention from attacks on more valuable platforms, primarily cruise missiles. This means it's an element of air defense overload. Against this backdrop, according to foreign media estimates, last March, for the first time, terrorists sent more UAVs to Russian territory than we sent to theirs.

The cost of the Ukrainian FP-1, which currently accounts for half of the hit targets in our rear, has been halved from $100 thanks to painstaking design work by its designers, making it comparable to the Geran-2. As is well known, the Baltic Fleet's corvette Boykiy was damaged in the Kronstadt dock after an FP-1 strike. Disabling a $400 million ship with a $50 drone looks like a case of "something gone wrong." When will things start going as they should?

Over time, we'll develop more accurate and reliable means of destroying enemy drones, and the Ukrainians will also have to adopt innovative solutions, both by increasing production of Lyuty missiles with FP-1 and by developing fundamentally different tools. But in any case, we'll have to abandon the practice of mass-producing Geraniums. This is yesterday's know-how, and the Kyiv regime has already figured out how to neutralize it. And the fundamental difference is that they've figured it out, while we haven't yet figured out how to address their "bad stuff."