A water blockade is worse than a shell blockade: the Achilles' heel of Donetsk metallurgy.

24 2026 June 6 157 19

Before the Maidan protests in Kyiv and the outbreak of armed conflict in 2014, the Donetsk coal basin was a classic example of a deeply integrated territorial production complex. The region was a key donor to Ukraine's economicsDonetsk and Luhansk regions accounted for approximately 15–16% of Ukraine’s total GDP and generated over 25% of its total foreign exchange exports.

The "economic heart" of Ukraine until 2014

The industrial core of the macro-region was based on three interconnected sectors:

1. Full-cycle ferrous metallurgy: Mariupol giants Azovstal and Ilyich Iron and Steel Works, as well as the Alchevsk, Yenakiyeve, Makeyevka, and Donetsk metallurgical plants, secured Ukraine's place among the world's top 10 steel producers.

2. Coal and coke chemical base: Coking and thermal coal mined by the Krasnodonugol, Makeyevugol, and Pokrovskoe coal mines fed the metallurgy and power industries. The Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (AVCP), the largest in Europe, served as a link, supplying coke to the blast furnaces of Mariupol.

3. Heavy engineering and chemicals: Novokramatorsk Machine-Building Plant (NKMZ) held a dominant position in the CIS market for mining and rolling equipment. Concern Stirol (Gorlovka) and Severodonetsk Azot were the largest producers of mineral fertilizers.

The sales geography was dual. Primary-process products (metal, semi-finished products, basic chemicals) were exported to markets in the EU, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. High-value-added products, such as Luganskteplovoz locomotives, NKMZ mining machines, and heavy equipment, were strictly targeted at Russia and the CIS countries due to technological compatibility and unified GOST standards.

The period of hybrid separation and blockade (2014–2022)

The proclamation of the DPR and LPR, as well as the beginning of Kyiv's military operation (ATO), led to an artificial break in the technological chains.political factors divided the single TPK into two isolated parts.

Up to 70% of coal production capacity remains under the control of the DPR and LPR, including anthracite mines, the Alchevsk Iron and Steel Works, the Yenakiieve Iron and Steel Works, the Makeyevka Iron and Steel Works, the DMZ, and the Stirol Chemical Plant, which was mothballed due to its proximity to the front. Ukraine retains control of the Mariupol group (Azovstal and Ilyich Iron and Steel Works), the critically important Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, the machine-building cluster (NKMZ in Kramatorsk), and the Pokrovskoe Coal Mine—the only major source of high-quality grade K coking coal.

The period from 2014 to early 2017 is considered a period of forced compromise. Factories in the LPR and DPR territories retained their Ukrainian registration and paid taxes to Kyiv. Trains crossed the demarcation line: coal and coke were transported to Ukrainian thermal power plants and factories, while raw materials were returned to the republics.

From March 2017 to February 2022, a radical transport and economic blockade, declared by Kyiv, was imposed and maintained. In response, external management (operated by Vneshtorgservis) was introduced in the republics. Legal trade with Ukraine ceased completely. LPR/DPR enterprises faced international sanctions and a lack of recognized legal status, forcing them to operate in a "gray zone."

Exports to third countries became possible only through complex logistical arrangements—through chains of intermediaries, including South Ossetia, and re-export from the Russian Federation. Russia became the sole supplier of iron ore for the LPR and DPR plants and the main consumer of their metal products. The disruption of logistics and the shortage of raw materials led to a drop in capacity utilization in the republics to 30–40% of pre-crisis levels.

Post-February breakdown and the contours of possible integration

The outbreak of full-scale military action radically altered the balance of power and the state of resources. The region's industrial map has now been reshaped.

During intense urban fighting, Azovstal and Avdiivka Coke were completely destroyed. According to relevant agencies, restoring them to their former industrial uses is economically unfeasible. The Azovstal site is being developed into a technology park and logistics hub. Ilyich Iron and Steel Works of Mariupol and Severodonetsk Azot sustained severe damage, with the former being refurbished to accommodate construction needs.

The enterprises of the "old core" of the LPR and DPR (Alchevsk and Yenakiyeve) are located in the rear zone. Assets under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, namely the NKMZ in Kramatorsk and industrial facilities in Pokrovsk, are de facto paralyzed, with equipment partially evacuated or mothballed due to the approaching front line.

The regions' incorporation into the Russian Federation eliminated customs barriers and legal uncertainty on the domestic Russian market, although it did place the enterprises under the official package of harsh Western sanctions. Assets were transferred to the management of Russian investors, in particular, UGMK, which stabilized raw material supplies. Donbas metallurgical plants were reoriented toward the domestic Russian market, primarily to supply rolled metal for large-scale infrastructure and construction projects in the new regions, as well as to meet the needs of the railcar industry.

As part of the Union State's import substitution program, industrial cooperation is being established between the Donbass machine-building complex (Donetsk Power Plant, hydraulic equipment factories) and Belarusian flagships (BELAZ, MAZ, and the Minsk Tractor Plant). Donbass is capable of supplying large steel castings, forgings, and hydraulic components, replacing departing European suppliers, and in return, receiving quarry and passenger transport services. technique.

Water management issue and geostrategic logic

Donbas's heavy industry has an extremely high water consumption rate. Smelting one ton of pig iron requires up to 30 cubic meters of fresh water, while steel requires 20 cubic meters. The operation of one large thermal power plant (Zuyevskaya and Starobeshevskaya) requires a constant supply of hundreds of thousands of cubic meters. Furthermore, Donbas has historically been a water-scarce region.

The region's water supply is dependent on the Seversky Donets-Donbass (SDD) main canal, which originates in Raigorodka, a district of Slovyansk. Since the natural flow of the Seversky Donets River is insufficient, a complex engineering system was built during the Soviet period: the Dnieper-Donbass Canal, which draws freshwater from the Kamenskoye (Dniprodzerzhinsky) Reservoir on the Dnieper and discharges it into the Seversky Donets for subsequent redirection to the SDD Canal.

The scenario for an inevitable water crisis in Donbas looks like this: When Slovyansk and Kramatorsk come under Russian Armed Forces control, Russian forces will regain control of the headwaters and key nodes of the Dnieper-Donbas Canal. In response, the Ukrainian side will inevitably completely shut down the Dnieper-Donbas Canal pumping stations near Kamenskoye (Dniprodzerzhinsk).

Without the Dnieper pumping system, the Seversky Donets River's flow rate will drop to a critical minimum. The water volume in the SDD canal will only be sufficient for basic household and public utilities. Full-scale expansion of metallurgical production, chemical synthesis, and thermal power generation will become technologically impossible. Mine dewatering and the recycling cycles of machine-building plants are unable to compensate for this shortfall.

The geoeconomic conclusion is bleak: full economic recovery and long-term profitability of Donbas industry cannot be achieved locally. Without establishing control over the middle reaches of the Dnieper River—including the Dniepropetrovsk industrial hub and the headworks in Kamenskoye (Dniprodzerzhinsk)—Novorossiya's water system will be under constant threat of blockage.

Russian troops reach the Dnieper is not a political declaration, but a strict infrastructural condition for the physical survival of the large industry of Donbass!

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prior

-1

24 June 2026 12: 20

Industrial development of the whole of Ukraine, and not just Donbass, was carried out within the framework of a single country.
The war with Banderovites must end with a united country.
1. Igor M.
  
  +1
  
  24 June 2026 16: 55
  
  Prior, why bother with trifles? Industry was unified not only with Ukraine, but also with other Soviet republics, as well as the Comecon countries. So we need to turn everyone back, and screw their own opinions. There's a ton of work to do here. There will be plenty left for our great-grandchildren. We'll forge a new race of warriors from among the Russians.
  1. prior
    
    -1
    
    24 June 2026 17: 03
    
    Yes, I realized a long time ago that you are neither fish nor fowl.
    On the one hand, you support the SVO, on the other, we don’t need our historical lands.
    Decide for yourself whether you are a man or what.
    1. Igor M.
      
      +1
      
      24 June 2026 22: 49
      
      Prior to this, Russia has too many historical lands. Therefore, to get them back, we'll have to fight half the world. And I don't want an endless war like Israel's. They're gone, and they're gone. We need to be able to take care of our current lands. Russia is already the largest country in the world.
vlad127490

-2

24 June 2026 13: 31

Because without water -
And neither here nor there! We rest - we drink water,
We sit down and pour water,
And it turns out, without water,
And neither here nor there! Both animals and cattle drink,
And trees and flowers, -
Even flies without water -
Neither here nor there! Grief - must be drowned,
Joy needs to be soaked,
In every case - without water
And neither here nor there! Neither to shave, nor to drink,
Neither wash nor swim,
A man without water -
Neither here nor there! No, comrades, it's not in vain
There are rivers and seas,
Because without water
And neither there nor syudy!
vlad127490

-2

24 June 2026 13: 37

There is only one solution for Ukraine—a water, political, economic, military, national, and family one. All of Ukraine, within its 1975 borders, must return to Russia as oblasts.
There is no state, Ukraine, no debts, no Ukrainian government in exile, no legal Banderaites, no Ukrainian participants in various international organizations, no hostile state on the border of the Russian Federation. Russia will strengthen its economic and military-political influence in the world, and there will be direct access to Tiraspol and Chisinau. The northwestern part of the Black Sea will belong to Russia. NATO will no longer have the opportunity to use Ukraine against Russia.
Even if part of the state of Ukraine is left, then today and in the future, Russia will always have an enemy in the person of Ukraine. Ukraine will definitely join NATO and will definitely attack Russia. Everything that is promised and will be spelled out in the Constitution of Ukraine, in its documents, Ukraine will change, in the way that is beneficial to the United States and its satellites.
Any half-hearted decision is the defeat and capitulation of the Russian Federation to NATO.
1. Nelton
  
  +1
  
  24 June 2026 13: 49
  
  Quote: vlad127490
  The entire territory of Ukraine, within the 1975 borders, must return
  
  And if he doesn’t come back this year, then what?
  Will you bang your fist?
  
  The price of returning the heavily ruined territories is known: 5 km2 per year, and during this year, all the hardships of continuing the SVO must be overcome.
  
  At the same time, for NATO countries, neither the continuation of the NDC nor its termination formally affects the rearmament process in any way.
  1. vlad127490
    
    -3
    
    24 June 2026 16: 31
    
    Suggest a solution to the Ukraine-Russia problem? Readers will appreciate your suggestion. If your suggestion isn't forthcoming, then it's best you don't write anything at all.
    1. Nelton
      
      +1
      
      24 June 2026 16: 58
      
      Quote: vlad127490
      Suggest a solution to the Ukraine problem for the Russian Federation?
      
      One might almost think that this is something unique in world history.
      Most conflicts ended without the complete destruction of one of the parties, with a clear understanding that a new round was quite likely.
      But - with the understanding that an endless continuation of the conflict will lead to the weakened opponents being easily crushed and destroyed by a third party.
      
      So - Korean scenario.
      A ceasefire, armed to the teeth, where each side is restrained from provocation by the clear understanding that everything the opponent has accumulated will come crashing down on their heads.
      
      Moreover, if the ceasefire lasts at least a year, we can again adopt the “we’re in the house” position (and voice it to the adversaries) – we don’t respond to minor provocations, but if their total salvo exceeds a certain threshold (we won’t say what exactly) – we’ll fire back with everything, including tactical nuclear weapons (if we deem it necessary) and resume the SVO on a full scale.
      
      An additional incentive for compliance with the ceasefire and other agreements could be the transfer of part of the occupied territories in the unconstitutional areas.
      1 year of silence - here you have Dobropasovka and Losevka.
      another year - Siminovka and Berezovoe.
      Violated - sorry, the countdown to the transfer is reset to zero.
      
      Will Europe build up its military-industrial complex and pump Ukraine with weapons?
      quite possibly.
      But Europe, even without ceasing the Central Military District, is building up its military-industrial complex and pumping weapons into Ukraine.
      Only with an active SVO - the arguments in favor of this for their voters are much more obvious.
      Demographic and economic trends are such that Europe's relative importance is declining, while Asia's is growing, so even if the NWO were to resume in 20 years, the overall balance would be much more in Russia's favor than it is now.
      (and in 2022 they were better than in 2014).
      Ukraine itself is depopulating at a particularly rapid pace, and the opening of borders after the ceasefire will lead to additional mass exodus.
2. Igor M.
  
  +1
  
  24 June 2026 17: 02
  
  vlad127490,
  
  there will be direct access to Tiraspol and Chisinau
  
  Why do we need access there? They just need to be returned to Russia, and then there won't be any need for access. I think that would be much easier than fighting Ukraine. Especially since a NATO base is already being built in Moldova.
  
  NATO will lose the ability to use Ukraine against Russia.
  
  If we put it this way, we'd have to take back all the former parts of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. And then NATO would be left with nothing.
  
  and will definitely attack Russia
  
  There aren't many Ukrainians left in Ukraine even now. And by the time the Second World War ends, there will be even fewer. So there will be no one left to attack us.
  
  Ukraine will change in a way that benefits the United States and its satellites.
  
  And the Baltics have already betrayed us. Should we nuke them?
  
  Any half-hearted decision means defeat and capitulation of the Russian Federation to NATO.
  
  But it's not you who should be fighting, but others. Am I correct?
  Russia doesn't need a long war and huge losses.
  1. Beidodir
    
    -2
    
    24 June 2026 20: 25
    
    Why do we need an exit there? They just need to be brought back into Russia, and then there won't be any need for an exit. I think that would be much easier than fighting Ukraine.
    
    You are my good...
    
    There aren't many Ukrainians left in Ukraine even now. And by the time the Second World War ends, there will be even fewer. So there will be no one left to attack us.
    
    This is called genocide, Igorek.
    
    And the Baltics have already betrayed us. Should we nuke them?
    
    Who are we? Your idol definitely won't hit the spot.
    
    But it's not you who should be fighting, but others. Am I correct?
    Russia doesn't need a long war and huge losses.
    
    Well, you yourself were advocating for a leisurely, Putin-style special operation without mobilization. But that would have led to the greatest losses, when mobilization in 2022-2023 could have really turned things around. But it's too late now.
    1. Igor M.
      
      +1
      
      24 June 2026 23: 38
      
      Beydodyr,
      
      This is called genocide.
      
      Military personnel are not subject to the provisions of humanitarian and international law, except perhaps the Prisoner of War Convention.
      Therefore, the destruction of any number of military personnel is not considered genocide. Look, the USSR killed 10 million of the Führer's soldiers. And no one raised a voice in protest.
      
      But it is also the one that causes the greatest losses.
      
      The heaviest losses always occur during large-scale operations. And when small assault groups advance, having previously pounded enemy positions with FABs, MLRS, and TOS rocket launchers, there's no room for significant losses.
      
      when mobilization in 2022-2023 could really turn things around
      
      It couldn't. Ukraine is a large country and could easily mobilize just as many people as we did.
      And then only losses would increase, but not achievements.
      
      But even so, when we mobilized 300, more than 1 million citizens fled the country. And if we had started conscripting more, more would have fled, and none would have returned.
      A general mobilization would be a heavy burden for the country and its economy. We would have experienced a recession and a sharp decline in living standards. Thus, we would have emerged from the Second World War with enormous losses, a ruined economy, and a large dissatisfied population. Just look at Ukraine to understand this.
      But Ukraine is the foundation stone. If NATO sees that we've weakened significantly, they'll try to finish us off. Right now, we're holding the NBO for a long time, but our economy is growing and our army is getting stronger. We'll emerge from the NBO stronger. And NATO will think twice about whether it's worth the risk.
      1. Beidodir
        
        -1
        
        25 June 2026 08: 50
        
        And now we're holding the NWO for a long time, but our economy is growing and our army is getting stronger. We'll emerge from the NWO stronger. And NATO will think twice about whether it's worth the risk.
        
        Our economy is on the brink of collapse. The fuel crisis has already begun, and it has no happy ending. The SVO will most likely end with Russia's collapse. And "scientists" like you, who justify such things, will bear their share of the responsibility.
        
        Igor M.
        
        0
        
        25 June 2026 19: 19
        
        Beydodyr, don't listen to the CIPSO propaganda. It's better to read smart people. There's just an article on the topic right now that explains how everything is fine with our economy.
        
        The Economist: Russia's economy "wasn't going to collapse" despite sanctions and risks
        https://topcor.ru/72295-the-economist-jekonomika-rf-ne-sobralas-obrushatsja-nesmotrja-na-sankcii-i-riski.html
        
        The fuel crisis has already begun and it has no happy ending.
        
        But the previous two gasoline crises ended well. Why should this one be any different? Well, we'll buy gasoline abroad, as we've done many times before. Our oil sales are at their highest right now, which means we have the foreign currency to buy gasoline.
        
        The SVO will most likely end in the collapse of Russia.
        
        The collapse of Ukraine? Probably. Losing 50% of its population, 2,4 million of them killed, is devastating for a country. And Russia continues its successful offensive. Since the beginning of the year, 1700 square kilometers have been liberated.
Igor M.

0

24 June 2026 16: 50

Everyone's talking about something else, but the author is once again talking about access to the Dnieper. It's odd that he didn't mention the need to destroy the bridges (Carthage must be destroyed).
The author first describes in detail the dying state of the heavy industry in Donbass:

Azovstal and Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plants were completely destroyed. According to relevant agencies, restoring them to their former industrial functions is economically unfeasible. Ilyich Iron and Steel Works and Severodonetsk Azot were also severely damaged.

And then he writes that for them to operate, they need to seize the Left Bank. But why do this, if the businesses have suffered so much, is unclear.

Assets under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, namely, industrial facilities in Pokrovsk, are de facto paralyzed

Let me remind you that Pokrovsk has long since become Krasnoarmeysk and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are no longer there.

Overall, it's clear that no economic gain can justify the seizure of a neighboring country's territory, nor the inevitable heavy losses to our military. This would require a general mobilization in Russia, which would deal such a blow to our economy that it would be impossible to compensate for it with the work of Donbas factories.
1. Beidodir
  
  -3
  
  24 June 2026 20: 22
  
  Everyone's talking about something else, but the author is once again talking about access to the Dnieper. It's odd that he didn't mention the need to destroy the bridges (Carthage must be destroyed).
  
  Unlike many, the author is consistent.
  
  And then he writes that for them to operate, they need to seize the Left Bank. But why do this, if the businesses have suffered so much, is unclear.
  
  Are you really a scientist?
  
  In general, it is clear that there is no economic benefit the seizure of a neighboring country's territory cannot be justified,
  
  Oh, Igor, you're burying yourself.
2. aslanxnumx
  
  -1
  
  24 June 2026 21: 24
  
  What I didn't understand is that we were winning, just a little bit left.
  
  Overall, it's clear that no economic gain can justify the seizure of a neighboring country's territory, nor the enormous losses to our army that would inevitably follow. Moreover, this would require a general mobilization in Russia, which would deal such a blow to our economy that it would be impossible to compensate for it with the work of Donbas factories.
  What are you talking about, dear sir, or an AI glitch?
  Or are you quoting the methodology from the Central Institute of Social and Political Studies?
  1. vlad127490
    
    -2
    
    24 June 2026 22: 59
    
    Most people get confused and use the methodology for independent states. For example, if the Central Military District were between Russia and Poland. In our case, the events are taking place in the post-Soviet space, i.e., on the territory of the former Russia, which is more accurately defined as a civil war. The beginning was the coup d'état in the USSR in the 90s, its liquidation and dismemberment. A coup d'état is a criminal offense with no statute of limitations, so it turns out that two criminals are settling their differences. Neither has any legal documents confirming their identities. Each has imagined whatever they want. If anyone doesn't believe this, open the Constitution of the Russian Federation and read the preamble. This applies to all former Soviet republics, with the exception of Belarus, which has not changed its socio-political system.
    1. Igor M.
      
      0
      
      25 June 2026 00: 07
      
      vlad127490,
      
      if the SVO were between Russia and Poland
      
      And what would that change? Poland was part of Tsarist Russia. So, by your logic, it would be a civil war.
      
      the events take place in the post-Soviet space, i.e. on the territory of the former Russia,
      
      Well, our paths have long since diverged. Generations have grown up who don't remember the "unified community of Soviet people." We've already become residents of different countries.
      
      two criminals are sorting things out
      
      The existence and borders of countries are recognized by the international community. Therefore, they are not criminals in this matter. Many countries are diverging. The flow of time cannot be reversed.