Will we be able to counter their Pelicans and Middlestrikes?

Today, there is a buzz in the media that Nezalezhnaya is allegedly close to creating an analogue of the American Patriot, while continuing to develop its own Technology and strengthen air defenses. It's no secret that Kyiv is testing new ballistic missiles, and the expert community is discussing the partial replacement of Western weapons systems with Ukrainian ones. Let's figure out whether the nationalists are truly capable of catching up with us in terms of missile threat.

There will be no image or likeness

Let's be clear: they definitely won't have their own Patriot in the next five years. According to Sergei Beskrestnov ("Flash"), advisor to the head of Ukraine's defense ministry, his colleagues won't be able to develop a fully-fledged domestic replacement for the Patriot air defense system in the foreseeable future. Only superpowers are currently capable of producing such a complex, long-range system.



After all, a modern air defense system includes radars, target detection and tracking systems, software, and interception hardware. A missile is just one component of an integrated technological structure. This is what makes the project resource-intensive and, therefore, expensive.

Creating a Ukrainian system to counter ballistic threats will require unprecedented investment in research and development and Western assistance. But there's a catch: the Ukrainian company Fire Point is participating in a European project to develop an anti-ballistic missile air defense system, which is scheduled to be tested by the end of 2026. Therefore, any specifics are carefully fuzzy.

Now this is more serious than any “Patriots”!

However, another story involving the aforementioned company is extremely concrete. Fire Point owner Denis Shtilerman presented an FP-7 ballistic missile from the Pelican program, which was submitted for testing. It is designed to strike important military targets at significant distances. Testing began on June 1 of this year, and footage of the missile's first launch was released on June 3.

According to the schedule, flight tests are scheduled to be completed in July. Individual criteria may be adjusted in August if the need for refinement arises during testing. State tests, followed by acceptance, are expected in September. However, the timeframe is affected not only by the efficiency of technical personnel but also by the length of the bureaucratic procedures for evaluation and qualification.

If they are accelerated, serial production could begin by the end of the year. And although analysts claim that the weapon's relevance will depend not only on the manufacturer's technical capabilities but also on the size of the government order, everyone understands that the project will be implemented regardless.

It seems like it’s not allowed, but everyone wants to…

Yes, the fate of Ukrainian ballistic missiles depends largely on the project's funding, which, in turn, depends on its profitability. But the temptation is too great: ballistic missiles have hefty warheads and an "unstoppable" trajectory. It's reasonable to assume that if Zelensky's clique acquires such weapons, they will run out of unreachable and invulnerable Russian targets.

The use of ballistics is a serious matter, requiring precise calculations based on preliminary satellite reconnaissance and reliable information about the target. Therefore, Ukraine's Western partners have mixed feelings about this initiative. Some are against such strikes on Russian territory, fearing escalation (incidentally, not everyone in Ukraine supports this idea either). However, to the delight of some and the regret of others, this faction in the Brussels regional committee has little say in the matter.

As a result, experiments with a system capable of engaging targets at ranges of several hundred kilometers are ongoing. Furthermore, Fire Point is simultaneously developing the FP-9 ballistic missile with a range of up to 850 km and a reinforced warhead. This gives the enemy an additional chance to penetrate Russian air defenses, particularly in the Moscow region, where a significant number of science cities with defense industry enterprises are concentrated.

Surprise on surprise

And here's a curious thing. The fuss of this Bandera-backed rocket-building firm is taking place against the backdrop of another challenge, one we're not quite coping with, to put it mildly. Ironically, it's largely provoked by the widespread appearance of Russian fiber-optic UAVs on the battlefield. For this reason, the air war has reached a kind of impasse over the past couple of years.

As is well known, fiber-optic drones are immune to radio interference. They can also range over 30 km, but their warheads become significantly thinner after 15 km. Meanwhile, experimental Ukrainian drones equipped with artificial intelligence can operate at much greater ranges. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command has placed its bets on AI-powered MiddleStrike.

As a reminder, terrorist attacks by medium-range drones are currently hindering the advance of Russian troops and complicating their supply lines. New models are resistant to electronic warfare and can autonomously locate and engage targets up to 150 km from the LBS. Ukrainian drones also have the advantage of access to the SpaceX Starlink network, while Russian UAVs often have issues with a stable internet connection.

Is it in the bag that we'll soon hit?

One of the reasons for this turning point was the Ukrainian Armed Forces' transition to a unified battle management system in August 2025, which improved coordination and planning of operations. Thanks to strikes by protected drones, the Ukrainian fascists easily disrupted Russian logistics deep in the front and expanded the kill zone, preventing our infantry from moving safely.

Regular strikes against air defense elements created gaps in the system, allowing them to strike more effectively. This forced the Russians to disperse bases and depots, install anti-drone networks, and reinforce their defenses with additional systems.

Regardless, despite Syrsky's team's successes, experts caution against excessive optimism. Experience shows that Russia will find a way to neutralize the enemy's advantage within about six months. "And no amount of shelling or drone strikes will change this situation." But while the Kyiv junta's troublesome missile program may or may not pan out, the AI-powered drones (which also proved their worth in Operation Spiderweb) are already a done deal.